战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-Update_-Turkey-And-The-European-Union_-Heading-For-A-Break__3页_79kb

TURKEY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION: HEADING FOR A BREAK?

Core Content

The year 2002 marked a pivotal period in the relationship between Turkey and the European Union (EU). Despite Turkey's efforts to meet the EU's accession criteria, the outlook for its integration into the bloc appeared increasingly unfavorable. The EU was expected to proceed with the accession of 10 countries, leaving Turkey and others to wait. The EU also signaled that it would not provide a specific timeline for starting accession talks with Turkey, which disappointed Ankara.

Main Views and Key Information

Turkey's Commitment to Reforms

• Turkey has made significant structural and political reforms in line with the Copenhagen Criteria, particularly in areas such as freedom of expression and thought.
• The Turkish government, under the coalition led by Bulent Ecevit, has shown a public commitment to EU accession, despite internal political tensions.
• Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz expressed hope for starting negotiations in 2003 and joining the EU by 2007.

EU's Skepticism and Conditions

• The EU, especially through Commissioner Guenter Verheugen, has criticized Turkey's reforms as inadequate from a European perspective.
• The EU emphasized the need for full implementation of political criteria, including the abolition of the death penalty and improvements in education.
• The EU was prepared to admit Greek Cypriots into the bloc even without a comprehensive settlement on the Cyprus issue, which Turkey strongly opposed.

Political Tensions in Turkey

• Internal divisions within the Turkish government have been exacerbated by the EU issue, particularly between Motherland Party (MP) and Nationalist Action Party (NAP).
• Devlet Bahceli, leader of NAP, has been critical of the EU integration process, arguing that it should not be pursued "at any cost."
• The abandonment of the death penalty is a major point of contention, with Bahceli suggesting it is a political tool to prevent the execution of Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK leader.

Email Leak Scandal

• A scandal involving the leaking of hundreds of e-mail messages of EU Representative Karen Fogg in February 2002 further fueled anti-EU sentiment.
• The incident revealed the EU's pressure on Turkey to meet its demands, which many in Turkey saw as interference.
• The Turkish government and military denied involvement, but some suggested the leak was from anti-EU elements within the state.

The Cyprus Issue

• The Cyprus issue was a major flashpoint in the EU-Turkey relationship.
• Turkey insisted that it would not allow Greek Cypriots to join the EU without a settlement.
• Greece threatened to use its veto power to block the entire enlargement process if the issue was not resolved.
• The EU, however, stated that it would proceed with the accession of Greek Cypriots regardless of the talks' outcome, further straining relations.

Diverging Perspectives

• The deterioration in the relationship extended beyond Cyprus, with growing skepticism from the Turkish military and political establishment.
• Turkish officials, including General Tuncer Kilinc, expressed that the EU had not supported Turkey and that Western Europe had historically aimed to weaken the country.
• Ismail Cem, the Turkish Foreign Minister, warned that the current trajectory could lead to failure, but the government remained optimistic.
• The United States, a traditional supporter of Turkish EU integration, was urged to clarify its stance to help ease tensions.

Conclusion

• The EU-Turkey relationship in 2002 was characterized by increasing divergence, internal political strife, and external pressures.
• The Cyprus issue and reform requirements were central to the tensions.
• The email leak scandal and military skepticism highlighted the deepening mistrust.
• A reassessment of Turkey's EU integration strategy may be necessary to prevent further damage to bilateral relations.