战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-Update_-Turkey-in-Growing-Distress_3页_104kb

Summary of "Turkey in Growing Distress"

Core Content

The document outlines the political, economic, and foreign policy challenges facing Turkey in the early 1990s, with a focus on the turbulent period leading up to the year 2000. It discusses the political instability resulting from the controversial coalition between the Islamist Welfare Party (WP) and the center-right True Path Party (TPP), as well as the disarray within the opposition parties. Additionally, it touches upon the economic crisis and the uncertainty surrounding Turkey's relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its foreign policy direction.

Main Political Developments

• Failed Vote of Censure: The Turkish opposition failed to bring down the government through a parliamentary vote of censure, indicating that the WP-TPP coalition is likely to remain in power for the remainder of the parliamentary term.
• Erbakan's Foreign Trip: Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's visit to Libya, where he received a harsh rebuke from the Libyan leader about the need for a Kurdish state, sparked significant public outrage. This event was used by the secular media to challenge the government.
• Opposition Disarray: The opposition parties, including the Democratic Left Party (DLP) and the Republican People's Party (RPP), are fragmented and unable to present a united front. The DLP is plagued by internal disputes, while the RPP struggles to recover from its poor performance in the December elections.
• MP's Weak Leadership: Mesut Yilmaz, leader of the Motherland Party (MP), has lost his grip on the party due to its poor showing in the municipal elections and internal dissent. His failure to lead effectively has led to potential defections and the possibility of a TPP-MP alliance.
• Shaky Coalition: The WP-TPP coalition is fragile, built on Ciller's need for political protection. It has only a narrow majority (278 votes) and faces ideological and internal conflicts. The coalition's survival is also undermined by the lack of support from some TPP members, including women and prominent business families.

Key Foreign Policy Issues

• Islamic Alignment: Erbakan's foreign policy has been focused on strengthening ties with Islamic countries, as evidenced by his visits to Iran and Libya.
• Secular Ties with the West: The TPP leader, Tansu Ciller, continues to emphasize Turkey's commitment to the West, maintaining relations with Western counterparts despite the coalition's Islamic leanings.
• Military Relations: The government has managed to maintain cooperation with the military establishment, which remains a key power player in Turkey, through strategic gestures and compromise.

Economic Challenges

• IMF Negotiations: The Turkish government is facing a critical economic test in its negotiations with the IMF. The WP has been resistant to accepting IMF conditions, which has stalled progress.
• Debt Crisis: Turkey is in a dire financial situation, needing foreign funds to meet its debt obligations but unable to secure them without IMF approval.
• Potential Crisis: Without a deal with the IMF or emergency measures, the Turkish economy is at risk of facing a severe crisis, potentially comparable to the one in 1994.

Conclusion

The document highlights the political, economic, and foreign policy instability in Turkey during this period. The WP-TPP coalition, while surviving recent challenges, is under threat from internal divisions and external pressures. The opposition's inability to unite and the economic uncertainty underscore the country's growing distress. The outcome of the IMF negotiations and the potential for a new political alliance will be crucial in determining the future stability of the Turkish government.