2001年-世界发展银行全球_Malaysia___Social_and_Structural_Review_Update_43页_2mb

Malaysia Social and Structural Review Update Summary

Executive Summary

This report provides an update on Malaysia's structural policy review (SPR) initiated in 1998 and 1999, assessing progress made over the last year in the context of regional developments and international financial discussions. It focuses on six main areas: macroeconomic growth and recovery, poverty and social protection, financial sector strengthening and capital market development, corporate restructuring, corporate governance and competition policy, and public sector performance and management.

Core Content

A. Macro Growth and Recovery

• Economic Recovery: The Malaysian economy rebounded sharply after the crisis, with GDP growth reaching 5.8% in 1999 and expected to exceed 6% in both 2000 and 2001.
• Growth Drivers: The recovery was driven by strong export performance, particularly in the electronics sector, and a more balanced domestic demand pattern.
• Output Gap: Malaysia's output gap in 1999 was 7.2% of GDP, significantly lower than that of its regional neighbors (12.9% in Korea, 14.5% in Thailand, 16.6% in Indonesia). The gap is projected to close by 2002.
• Fiscal Policy: The government implemented a counter-cyclical fiscal policy, with a planned 1998 deficit of 3.4% of GDP, which was reduced to 1.8% due to spending delays. In 1999, the planned deficit of 6.0% was achieved at 4.0%.
• Debt Sustainability: Public sector debt-to-GDP ratio remained at 37.9% at the end of 1999, with a primary surplus net of seignorage at 1.3% of GDP, indicating a sustainable fiscal position.
• External Debt: Total external debt stood at 48.4% of GDP in Q2-2000, with short-term debt at 15.2% of foreign exchange reserves, suggesting a manageable external position.

B. Poverty and Social Protection

• Short-Term Measures: The government implemented short-term measures to protect households, including targeted spending programs, which helped mitigate the social impact of the crisis.
• Unemployment and Wages: Unemployment began to fall, and the average real wage decline was minimal (1.1% in 1998), compared to more severe declines in other countries.
• Social Impact: The negative impact of the crisis on the poor was less severe than feared, with a focus on education and health budgets being well protected.
• Retrenchments: Retrenchments decreased significantly in 1999 due to wage reductions and increased use of part-time and flexible work arrangements.

C. Financial Sector Strengthening and Capital Market Development

• Financial Stabilization: The Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) injected capital into the banking system via Danamodal, helping to stabilize the sector.
• NPL Reduction: Non-performing loans (NPLs) peaked at 18.9% in Q4-1998 and had declined to 16.7% in Q1-2000, though progress was slower than in some other countries.
• Regulatory Reforms: Malaysia adopted a more stringent classification and provisioning standard for NPLs. It also participated in the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) and worked on international best practices.
• Capital Market Development: The government launched a comprehensive financial sector reform program, including consolidated reporting, credit risk management, and a new liquid asset management framework.

D. Corporate Restructuring

• Danaharta Role: Danaharta, with strong legal powers, completed the asset acquisition phase quickly and made progress in resolving cases and selling assets.
• Bankruptcy Reforms: New bankruptcy legislation and courts were established, helping with voluntary case resolution and aligning with international standards.
• Debt Restructuring: Corporate debt restructuring was largely in the form of debt rescheduling, with some progress in reducing NPLs.
• Performance Trends: The corporate sector showed signs of recovery, with some industries beginning to grow again in the second quarter of 1999, and the overall performance becoming more balanced across sectors.

E. Corporate Governance and Competition Policy

• Legal Framework: Malaysia had a strong legal and regulatory framework for corporate governance, which was further refined through the recommendations of the High Level Finance Committee on Corporate Governance.
• Reforms Implemented: These included prospectus disclosure, investor civil actions against directors, and a voluntary code of corporate governance.
• Director Accreditation: Mandatory accreditation of directors was introduced to enhance transparency and accountability.
• Regulatory Autonomy: The Securities Commission (SC) and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) were empowered to improve enforcement and supervision, aligning with international standards.

F. Public Sector Performance and Management

• Public Sector Reforms: The government initiated steps to address contingent liabilities, including the creation of a trust fund and a study to evaluate all such liabilities.
• Performance Evaluation: The Treasury began issuing guidelines, providing training, appointing consultants, and preparing a standard manual for program evaluation and audits.
• Institutional Strength: Malaysia's public sector institutions and civil administration were well-regarded, contributing to a perception of government friendliness toward business.

Key Information

• Exchange Rate and Capital Controls: The exchange rate was fixed at RM3.8 to the dollar, and capital controls were introduced in September 1998. These controls were later replaced with graduated exit taxes, which were further liberalized.
• Fiscal and Monetary Policy: An accommodative monetary policy helped ease the NPL situation without creating price instability. The fiscal stimulus was delayed but effective in boosting recovery.
• Regional Context: Malaysia's recovery was faster and more robust than its neighbors, partly due to better initial conditions and a more flexible labor market.
• Challenges: Remaining challenges include the orderly exit from capital controls, managing external pressures, and ensuring the full implementation of structural reforms over several years.

Main Viewpoints

• The recovery in Malaysia was largely due to strong macroeconomic policies and fiscal stimulus, not primarily due to capital controls.
• The labor market showed greater flexibility and resilience compared to other countries, with minimal real wage decline and effective retrenchment management.
• The financial sector has made progress in stabilization and restructuring, but further reforms are needed to ensure long-term stability.
• The corporate sector is showing signs of recovery, though the process has been slower and more reliant on debt rescheduling.
• Public sector reforms are underway, with a focus on transparency, accountability, and performance evaluation.

Conclusion

Malaysia's structural policies have been effective in managing the crisis and fostering recovery. The country has made significant progress in several key areas, including macroeconomic stability, financial sector reform, and social protection. However, challenges remain in fully implementing reforms and managing external pressures. The country's performance is seen as a model in the region, with a more favorable initial position and faster recovery, though the role of exchange controls in the recovery remains debated.