2000年-世界发展银行全球_Thailand_-_Social_and_Structural_Review___Beyond_the_Crisis_-_Structural_Reform_for_Stable_Growth_138页_8mb

Thailand: Social and Structural Review - Beyond the Crisis: Structural Reform for Stable Growth

Executive Summary

This report outlines Thailand's path toward recovery and sustainable growth following the 1997 financial crisis, emphasizing the need for structural reforms across various sectors. It highlights the importance of macroeconomic stabilization and deep structural reform to restore market confidence and address long-term vulnerabilities.

Key Points

• Pre-Crisis Growth: Thailand experienced rapid economic growth (10% average GDP growth from 1986–1990) driven by exports and improvements in labor quality. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth was a key contributor to this success.
• Crisis Impact: The crisis was exacerbated by imbalanced growth, rising income inequality, and environmental degradation. Weak governance and lax enforcement of financial regulations led to speculative bubbles, particularly in nontradables, which burst in 1997.
• Recovery Efforts: Thailand adopted a twin strategy of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. This included a stabilization program supported by the IMF and World Bank, which helped restore the balance of payments and improve the country's risk rating.
• Growth Prospects: While medium-term growth is optimistic, the implementation of structural reforms remains critical. The country needs to strengthen the international competitiveness of firms and inculcate prudent risk-taking habits in a liberalized economy.
• Social Protection: The crisis highlighted the need for a robust social safety net. Informal mechanisms were insufficient, and formal programs are essential to protect vulnerable groups.
• Financial Sector Reform: The financial sector was central to the crisis, with weak supervision and prudential standards. Efforts to recapitalize banks and restructure nonperforming loans (NPLs) have been slow, and the sector remains fragile.
• Corporate Governance and Legal Framework: Legal and regulatory reforms are necessary to enhance corporate governance, clarify roles of financial institutions, and improve the efficiency of financial intermediation.
• Private Sector Development: Structural reforms aim to improve the competitiveness of the private sector by addressing debt and operational restructuring, reducing competition hurdles, and enhancing the quality of factors of production.

Core Content

1. Medium-Term Prospects for Economic Growth

• Growth Drivers: Historically, exports were the main engine of growth, supported by TFP improvements and capital accumulation.
• Challenges: Inequality and environmental degradation were growing concerns. The shift from export-led to capital-led growth increased the current account deficit and put pressure on wages.
• TFP Decline: TFP growth collapsed after 1996, leading to a decline in export competitiveness.
• Recovery Outlook: A GDP growth rate of 2.5% was expected for 1999, following an 8% contraction in 1998. The exchange rate stabilized, and risk ratings improved. However, slow progress in restructuring and fiscal stimulus effects remain concerns.

2. Lessons of the Crisis for Poverty Alleviation

• Pre-Crisis Approach: Thailand relied on economic growth, flexible labor markets, and informal income transfer networks to reduce poverty.
• Crisis Impact: Income losses were more pronounced in urban areas, leading to migration to rural regions and wage adjustments.
• Social Safety Nets: The need for formal social protection mechanisms became evident, as informal systems were inadequate.
• Future Strategy: A structured poverty alleviation program with automaticity and timely support is essential. This includes workfare programs, in-kind and cash transfers, and a tripartite task force to design a fiscally sustainable social security system.
• Income Distribution: Concerns about income distribution will resurface as the crisis's costs are debated, necessitating careful evaluation of tax and expenditure policies to avoid burdening low-income groups.

3. Financial Sector Reform

• Crisis Causes: Weak prudential standards and lax supervision enabled risky lending. The fixed exchange regime and lack of legal enforcement further contributed to the crisis.
• Reforms Needed: Strengthening bank supervision, improving prudential regulations, and enhancing legal enforcement are critical.
• Recapitalization and NPLs: Recapitalization of banks and resolution of NPLs are top priorities. Despite some successes, progress has been slow, and banks remain reluctant to lend.
• Legal and Regulatory Reforms: Amendments to financial sector laws, including the Bankruptcy Act and related civil procedures, are necessary to clarify roles and responsibilities. The establishment of a Bankruptcy Court has improved the restructuring process.
• Incentives and Competition: Transparent licensing systems, removal of foreign ownership restrictions, and the development of domestic capital-raising instruments (CAPS and SLIPS) are essential to increase contestability and exposure to competition.

4. Private Sector Development

• Pre-Crisis Weaknesses: The private sector was highly leveraged and diversified into non-competitive activities, weakening its export performance.
• Reform Agenda: Structural reforms are needed to improve the competitiveness of the private sector. This includes debt restructuring, removal of competition barriers, and enhancement of factors of production.
• Debt Restructuring: Legal frameworks for court-supervised settlements and voluntary restructuring have been established. These are key to reducing NPLs and enabling banks to resume lending.
• Operational Restructuring: Improving the quality of factors of production and enhancing the regulatory environment will give Thai firms a sharper competitive edge.

5. Environmental Challenges and Strategy

• Environmental Degradation: The crisis highlighted the need for environmental reform. Weak governance and lack of focus on real sector weaknesses contributed to environmental issues.
• Reform Agenda: A comprehensive strategy is required to address environmental challenges, including the decentralization of environmental functions to local governments and the development of a more sustainable growth model.
• Institutional Capacity: Strengthening environmental institutions and promoting sustainable practices are essential for long-term economic stability.

6. Debt Management and Public Sector Reform

• Public Debt Management: Thailand's public debt management needs to be improved for fiscal sustainability. The country has a high ratio of nonperforming loans, which affects the banking system's stability.
• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): Reform of SOEs is crucial for improving efficiency and reducing fiscal burdens. The National Economic and Social Development Board and the Ministry of Finance must work together to streamline public sector operations.
• Fiscal Policy: The government must ensure that fiscal policies support both growth and social protection, avoiding excessive burdens on low-income groups.

Main Viewpoints

• Structural Reform is Essential: For long-term growth and stability, Thailand must implement structural reforms across the financial, private sector, and public sectors.
• Social Protection Needs: Informal mechanisms are insufficient. Formal social safety nets are required to protect vulnerable groups and ensure equitable growth.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Strengthening supervision, improving prudential standards, and enhancing legal enforcement are critical for restoring confidence in the financial system.
• Private Sector Competitiveness: Enhancing the competitiveness of the private sector through debt restructuring, regulatory reform, and quality improvements is necessary for sustainable growth.
• Environmental Sustainability: Addressing environmental challenges and promoting sustainable development is vital for long-term economic health.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalents: US$1.00 = B 37.20; B 1.00 = US$0.0269.
• Key Institutions:
  • AAT: Airport Authority of Thailand
  • MOI: Ministry of Interior
  • ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations
  • BOI: Board of Investments
  • BOT: Bank of Thailand
  • FRA: Financial Restructuring Authority
  • NGO: Non-Governmental Organization
  • OEPP: Office of Environment Policy and Planning
  • RFA: Financial Restructuring Authority
  • SET: Stock Exchange of Thailand
• Key Reports and Tables:
  • Table 1.1: Contributions to Growth per Capita
  • Table 2.1: Poverty Rates and Changes in Selected Groups
  • Table 3.1: Financial Sector Restructuring in Asian Economies
  • Table 4.1: Status of CDRAC Target Cases
  • Table 5.1: Overview of Environmental Trends and Responses
  • Table 6.1: Regional Ranking of Public Sector Management and Institutions
• Key Figures:
  • Figure 1.1: Average Growth in Real GDP per Capita
  • Figure 1.2: GDP Growth Decomposed by Component of Aggregate Demand
  • Figure 2.1: Poverty Rates
  • Figure 4.1: Selected Indicators of Private Sector Development
  • Figure 6.1: External and Domestic Public Sector Debt

Conclusion

Thailand's journey from crisis to recovery highlights the importance of structural reform, especially in the financial and public sectors, and the need for robust social safety nets. The country's ability to implement these reforms will determine its long-term economic stability and growth potential.