2001年-世界发展银行全球_Kingdom_of_Morocco___Poverty_Update_Volume_1_Main_Report_69页_5mb

Kingdom of Morocco Poverty Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of poverty trends in Morocco from 1990 to 1998, focusing on the impact of economic and social policies on poverty reduction. It highlights the challenges faced by both urban and rural populations and outlines policy recommendations to address these issues effectively.

Main Report Overview

A. Trends in Poverty and Social Conditions

• Poverty Increase: The number of poor increased from 13.1% to 19% of the population (3.4 to 5.3 million) between 1990/91 and 1998/99.
• Economic Vulnerability: The percentage of economically vulnerable (those at or below 50% above the poverty line) rose from 35% to 44% (9 to 12 million).
• Rural Poverty: Poverty remains a rural phenomenon, with 66% of the poor living in rural areas despite rural population being 46% of total population.
• Urban Poverty: Urban poverty is rising, with the share of urban poor increasing from 27% to 34% of total poor.
• Social Indicators: Improvements in adult illiteracy (55% to 48%) and primary enrollment rate (58% to 70%) were observed, but significant disparities remain between urban and rural areas.

B. Why Poverty Increased in the 1990s

• Slow Economic Growth: Annual GDP growth was only 1.9% (1991–1998), down from 4.1% (1986–1991), contributing to 84% of the poverty increase.
• Agricultural Decline: Agriculture value-added dropped, and the sector was not offset by non-agricultural growth, leading to stagnation in per capita income.
• Unemployment: Urban unemployment increased from 15% to 22% (1991–1999), with the urban poor having a higher unemployment rate (31.5%).
• Drought and Agricultural Policies: Droughts and government policies promoting cereal production on less productive land worsened rural poverty.
• Decline in Worker Remittances: Remittances declined from 11% to 8.4% of total private consumption, affecting middle-income groups in urban areas.
• Subsidies: Increased consumer food subsidies diverted resources from social programs, which were poorly targeted and inefficient.

C. Who Are the Poor?

• Demographics: Children under 15 make up about 44% of the poor, with a higher incidence among rural children.
• Literacy: 64% of the poor are illiterate, compared to 52% of the non-poor.
• Income Sources: Rural poor rely on agriculture and off-farm activities, while urban poor are more likely to be in the service and construction sectors.
• Vulnerability: The disabled and elderly are particularly vulnerable, with poverty incidence rising significantly among them.
• Public and Private Transfers: Public transfers (mainly pensions) and private transfers (e.g., remittances) helped reduce poverty incidence and gap, but public transfers are more effective in urban areas.

D. Policy Directions for Poverty Reduction

Promoting Sustained Economic Growth

• Growth Impact: Poverty elasticity to growth is high (2.7), so economic growth is crucial for poverty reduction.
• Growth Strategy: A growth rate of 6% per annum is needed to significantly reduce poverty, with a focus on pro-rural and pro-agricultural growth.
• Sector Development: Industrial sectors, especially labor-intensive ones like manufacturing, tourism, and fisheries, should be prioritized.
• Export-Oriented Policies: Trade liberalization and flexible exchange rate policies are recommended to boost exports and employment.

Improving Efficiency and Quality of Public Expenditures in Social Sectors

• Social Programs: Social development mechanisms need to be more efficient and targeted.
• Priority Areas:
  • Education: Focus on universal lower basic education, especially for rural girls.
  • Health Care: Improve access and quality, especially in rural areas, and expand primary health services.
  • Social Insurance: Expand coverage to include more low-income workers and the poor.
  • Social Assistance: Develop comprehensive safety nets for the poor, including health insurance and support for indigents.

Key Information

• Poverty Lines: Updated based on LSMS data, with the poverty line in 1998/99 being around 50% of the average per capita expenditure.
• Public Expenditure: Social spending increased from 35% to 43% of total public expenditures, but remains below the regional average.
• Budget Reallocation: Potential savings from consumer food subsidies (about 0.8% of GDP) and privatization revenues could be redirected to social sectors.
• Targeted Spending: More targeted spending on social programs is needed to effectively reduce poverty and vulnerability.
• NGOs Role: NGOs have become more active in social programs, providing new avenues for public-private partnerships.

Conclusion

Morocco has made progress in improving social indicators, but poverty and economic vulnerability have increased due to slow GDP growth, inequality, and inadequate public spending. To achieve sustained poverty reduction, a combination of macroeconomic growth and targeted, efficient social spending is necessary. The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to social policies, including education, health, and social insurance, with a focus on rural development and improving access to essential services.