20160714-大华银行-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_967kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 14 July 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial and economic landscape across several Asian markets, focusing on China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, along with key indices and sector updates. It outlines the current market conditions, investment opportunities, and policy implications affecting the region.

Main Points and Key Information

China

Economics

Trade: Chinese exports fell by 4.8% yoy in June 2016, while imports dropped by 8.4% yoy, leading to a trade surplus of US$48.11b.
Key Markets: Exports to the US, EU, and Hong Kong declined by 10.4%, 3.6%, and 6.9% respectively.
Import Trends: Import volume of iron ore and crude oil dropped mom by 5.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Gold imports from Hong Kong surged yoy by 550%.
Capital Flows: Despite a $13.4b increase in foreign reserves, capital outflow is estimated at $46.7b, indicating continued pressure on the renminbi.
Policy Expectations: More supportive policies are expected to be introduced to stabilize demand, with a potential 25bp cut in the policy rate and a 50bp RRR cut in late July.

Sector - Property

Developers & Insurance Companies: The relationship between property developers and insurance firms is complex. While there are synergistic benefits, there are also risks of capital mismatch and shareholding conflicts.
Vanke's Shareholding Situation: Vanke's founding chairman has criticized Baoneng's involvement, highlighting capital structure issues. Baoneng holds 25% of Vanke via Foresea Life Insurance and Jushenghua.
Insurance Investment: Major insurance companies like Foresea Life, China Life Insurance, and Anbang are investing in property developers, with UL products offering high yields (4.50%–7.99%) but also creating mismatch risks.
Property Investment Trends: The sector is trading at a 45% discount to RNAV, which is still attractive. Top picks include CRL, COLI, and Sunac.
Valuation: Property stocks are discounted to RNAV by 45.0%, with China Vanke and Sino-Ocean Land as key investment targets.

Top Picks

BUY: Air China (753 HK), Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ), Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), Genting Bhd (GENT MK), City Developments (CIT SP), DBS (DBS SP), PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB), and Siam Cement (SCC TB).
SELL: Hartalega (HART MK).

Malaysia

Strategy

Yee Lee (YEE MK): A BUY recommendation with a target price of RM2.70.
Consumer Staples: The company's core business remains intact, though Red Bull sales have eased yoy.
Market Position: The stock has shown positive performance following the BUY call in April, but the upside is now limited due to current valuation levels.

Sector - Banking

A 25bp cut in the policy rate is seen as a potential start of a rate-cut cycle, which may reduce sector earnings by 1%.
Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for the banking sector.

Indonesia

Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ): Downgraded to HOLD due to all recovery priced in.
Target Price: Raised to Rp1,845 from Rp1,560.
Feedmill Segment: The segment is a primary revenue driver with a 70% share of consolidated revenue.
ASP Assumption: Raised by 2.3% to Rp6,500/kg.
Broiler Segment: ASP stabilized at Rp21,000/kg (industry) and Rp31,000/kg (consumer).
Valuation: Trading at 20.5x 2016F PE, higher than the 5-year average of 18.8x.

Singapore

Strategy

FSSTI: Recent bounces suggest Brexit fears have eased, but macro risks remain elevated.
Earnings Visibility: Limited, leading to a cautious outlook.
Target: A year-end target of 2,910 is set, with selective positioning advised.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18372.1	0.1	2.5	3.6	5.4
S&P 500	2152.4	0.0	2.5	3.5	5.3
FTSE 100	6670.4	-0.2	3.2	10.3	6.9
AS30	5470.3	0.7	3.5	3.6	2.4
CSI 300	3282.9	0.3	2.1	6.7	-12.0
FSSTI	2910.7	0.3	1.6	5.1	1.0
HSCEI	8909.1	0.6	4.8	3.8	-7.8
HSI	21322.4	0.5	4.0	4.6	-2.7
JCI	5133.9	0.7	3.1	6.5	11.8
KLCI	1660.4	0.4	0.3	2.1	-1.9
KOSPI	2005.6	0.7	2.7	1.7	2.3
Nikkei 225	16231.4	0.8	5.5	2.3	-14.7
SET	1477.6	0.2	1.7	3.5	14.7
TWSE	8857.8	0.2	1.6	3.3	6.2
BDI	726	2.1	4.6	19.2	51.9
CPO	2297	-1.2	-4.5	-12.7	4.4
Brent Crude	46	-4.6	-5.2	-8.1	24.1

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (yoy) 2015	GDP (yoy) 2016F	GDP (yoy) 2017F
US	2.4	2.5	2.7
Euro Zone	1.6	1.5	1.6
Japan	0.5	0.6	0.8
Singapore	2.0	2.7	3.0
Malaysia	5.0	4.2	5.0
Thailand	2.8	3.2	3.6
Indonesia	4.8	5.0	5.5
Hong Kong	2.4	2.1	1.8
China	6.9	6.5	6.2

Brent Crude (US$/bbl)

2015: 53.60
2016F: 42
2017F: 54

CPO (RM/mt)

2015: 2,168
2016F: 2,500
2017F: 2,600

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
VS Industry Berhad Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	14 Jul	14 Jul
Plantation Outlook Seminar 2016	Singapore	20 Jul	20 Jul
Malaysia 2016 Outlook Strategy Analyst Presentation	Singapore, Taipei	20 Jul, 2 Aug	21 Jul, 3 Aug
China Strategy & Coal & Wind Supply Analyst Presentation	Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur	26 Jul, 27 Jul	26 Jul, 27 Jul
Kerjaya Prospek Corp Roadshow	Taipei	4 Aug	5 Aug
China Aviation Oil Corp Roadshow	Malaysia	4 Aug	5 Aug
Semibcorp Industries Corp Roadshow	Canada	26 Sep	27 Sep
Regional Financial and Telco Sector Analyst Presentation	UK/Europe	26 Sep	30 Sep
Metro Pacific Investments Corporate Roadshow	Canada	10 Nov	11 Nov

Conclusion

The report highlights the ongoing challenges in China's trade performance, policy support expectations, and the complex relationship between property developers and insurance firms. It also covers market performance in Malaysia and Indonesia, sector valuations, and investment opportunities across various regions. Overall, the market remains cautious, with a focus on selective positioning and valuation-driven decisions.

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