20180125-川财证券-Chuancai_Research_2018_Strategy_Report_2018_China_Equity_Market_Automobile_Outlook_23页_2mb

报告摘要

2017-2018 Chinese Automotive Industry Review and Strategy Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese automotive industry's performance in 2017 and outlook for 2018, with a particular emphasis on the growth of lithium batteries and new energy vehicles. It also outlines strategic recommendations for investors to focus on the Tesla and CATL industrial chains.

Key Points from 2017 Review

Market Performance:
- The Shanghai Composite gained 5.55%, while the CSI 300 rose by 20.58%.
- The automobile sector dropped by 1.34%, underperforming the A-share market.
- The vehicle segment showed strong growth with an increase of 8.49%.
- Auto parts, auto service, and other delivery equipment declined by 3.84%, 12.99%, and 26.10%, respectively.
- Concept stocks saw mixed performance: new energy automotive fell by 12.60%, while lithium batteries rose by 9.13%.
Segment Analysis:
- The vehicle segment performed well, but other segments like auto parts and auto service lagged.
- The new energy automotive industrial chain (medium-to-upper stream) outperformed the overall vehicle segment.
Market Trends:
- China's automobile industry is still in the second stage of development, with per capita car ownership below the global average.
- The auto industry's revenue as a proportion of GDP continues to grow, indicating a vast market potential.
- The industry is undergoing structural changes, with a shift towards new energy vehicles.

2018 Outlook

Conventional Vehicles:
- Demand for passenger vehicles narrowed due to favorable policies for small-displacement vehicles.
- Sales may see zero growth in 2018.
- SUV sales maintained a growth rate of over 15%, expanding their market share.
- Heavy truck sales remained prosperous, though growth may slow slightly in 2018.
New Energy Vehicles:
- The development trend of new energy vehicles is irreversible.
- Strong policy support and performance improvements over traditional vehicles are driving growth.
- The cost of new energy vehicles is only 30% of that of conventional cars.
- New energy vehicle sales are expected to grow significantly in 2018, with a projected growth rate of over 50%.

Strategic Focus: New Energy Industrial Chain

Tesla Industrial Chain:
- Model 3 Production: Started volume production in July 2017, with an expected production of over 200,000 units in 2018.
- Localization Project: Expected to be implemented in 2018, prompting parts manufacturers to expand.
- Key Suppliers:
  - Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ): Supports Tesla, Geely, and Nio with core technologies in heat pump air conditioners.
  - Hongfa Technology (600885.SH): Products have entered Tesla's supply chain and are collaborating with CATL.
  - LianChuang Electronic Technology (002036.SZ): Applied in Model 3, with cooperation with BOE for touch screens.
  - Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic (002048.SZ): Involved in Tesla's aluminum trim and Nissan's battery acquisition.
CATL Industrial Chain:
- Market Position: CATL has become a leading power battery manufacturer.
- Collaboration with OEMs: Has established connections with multiple original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
- Growth Expectation: With new auto models in 2018, output is expected to grow rapidly, benefiting upstream industry chain enterprises.
- Key Companies: Putailai New Energy Technology (603659.SH), Tungsten (600549.SH), GEM (002340.SZ), and Tinci Materials Technology (002709.SZ).

Key Risks

Policy Changes: Potential shifts in government policies could impact the growth of new energy vehicles.
Production Safety Issues: Concerns about safety and reliability in manufacturing processes may affect industry performance.

Summary of Main Trends and Growth Drivers

New Energy Vehicles:
- The industry is entering a high-growth phase.
- Policy support and performance improvements have driven significant growth.
- Sales of new energy vehicles reached 700,000 units in 2017, accounting for about 3% of total vehicle sales.
Market Segmentation:
- SUVs are becoming more popular, with a rising share in the passenger car market.
- Heavy trucks remain a key segment, with sales growing by 71% in 1-10M2017.
- The traditional car market is under pressure from new energy vehicles, with penetration rates expected to increase.
Industrial Chain Development:
- Companies involved in the Tesla and CATL industrial chains are expected to benefit from the growth of new energy vehicles.
- Upstream battery manufacturers and parts suppliers are key beneficiaries.

Key Figures and Data

2017 Sales:
- Vehicle segment increased by 8.49%.
- New energy passenger cars and business cars sales reached 400,000 units.
2018 Projections:
- SUV sales growth is expected to exceed 15%.
- Heavy truck sales are projected to maintain prosperity.
- New energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by over 50%.