20220804-招银国际-小米集团-W-01810.HK-2Q22_preview__a_slow_quarter_but_mostly_priced_in_9页_1mb
报告摘要
Xiaomi (1810 HK) 2Q22 Preview Summary
Core Content Overview
Xiaomi is set to report its 2Q22 results on 19 August. The company is expected to report revenue and adjusted net profit of RMB69.5bn and RMB1.92bn respectively, representing a -21% and -70% YoY decline. This is attributed to smartphone demand slowdown, inventory destocking, inflation pressure, and macroeconomic headwinds.
By segment, the smartphone segment is projected to see a 28% YoY decline, while the IoT segment will decline by 9%, and internet revenue by 2%. The gross margin (GPM) for 2Q22E is expected to be 16.7%, slightly lower than the 17.3% in 2Q21, due to the 618 festival promotions and limited high-end model launches.
Looking ahead, Xiaomi's smartphone shipment is forecasted to drop by 16% YoY to 161mn in FY22E, followed by 9% and 6% YoY growth in FY23E and FY24E, respectively. The ASP is expected to grow by 2%, 2%, and 7% in FY22E, FY23E, and FY24E respectively.
Key Points
Smartphone Segment
- 2Q22E shipment: 39.5mn (-25.5% YoY)
- Market share: 13.8% (vs 16.9% in 2Q21)
- ASP decline: 2% YoY due to promotions and limited high-end models
- Forecast: Shipment is expected to decline by 16% YoY in FY22E, then resume growth at 9% and 6% in FY23E and FY24E
IoT and Internet Segment
- AloT revenue decline: 8.6% YoY in 2Q22E (vs +36% in 2Q21)
- Internet margin improvement: GPM is expected to improve to 71.3% QoQ due to higher pre-installation app mix
- 2H22E outlook: AloT revenue is forecasted to be mostly flat YoY, while internet revenue will resume single-digit growth driven by the expanding premium smartphone user base and overseas channel expansion
Valuation and Investment View
- Target Price (TP): HK$14.81 (a 28% upside from current price HK$11.60)
- P/E ratio: Current valuation is at 15.7x FY23E, close to 1-sd below the 3-yr average of 15.9x
- Investment Rating: Maintain BUY
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 245,865.6 | 328,309.1 | 301,652.8 | 335,731.7 | 383,680.9 |
| YoY growth (%) | 19.4% | 33.5% | -8.1% | 11.3% | 14.3% |
| Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) | 13,006.4 | 22,039.5 | 13,490.9 | 16,558.0 | 19,250.2 |
| EPS (Adjusted)(RMB) | 0.54 | 0.88 | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| YoY growth (%) | 11.7% | 63.1% | -38.8% | 22.7% | 16.3% |
| P/E (x) | 17.4 | 26.8 | 18.5 | 15.0 | 12.9 |
| P/B (x) | 2.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| ROE (%) | 16.4% | 14.1% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% |
Earnings Revision
CMBIGM estimates are 9-17% below consensus for FY22-24E adjusted net profit. The revised estimates reflect lower smartphone forecasts and GPM. The revised EPS is also 9-17% below consensus due to more conservative shipment estimates.
| Metric | New Estimate | Old Estimate | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 301,653 | 334,627 | -10% |
| Gross profit | 51,342 | 57,224 | -10% |
| Operating profit | 2,930 | 5,684 | -48% |
| Adj. net profit | 13,491 | 16,895 | -20% |
| Adj. EPS (RMB) | 0.54 | 0.68 | -20% |
| Gross margin | 17.0% | 17.1% | -0.1 ppt |
| Operating margin | 1.0% | 1.7% | -0.7 ppt |
| Adj. net margin | 4.5% | 5.0% | -0.6 ppt |
Catalysts for Future Growth
- Product launches in 2H22E are expected to drive demand and shipment recovery
- Continued overseas expansion, especially in Europe, LATAM, and ASEAN
- Growing premium smartphone user base
- Internet revenue recovery
- Progress in smart EV development
Valuation Comparison
| Company | FY22E P/E | FY23E P/E | FY22E P/B | FY23E P/B | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaomi | 18.5 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 9.8 |
| Sunny Optical | 29.5 | 24.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 14.7 |
| AAC Tech | 17.2 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
| BYDE | 22.7 | 13.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 6.9 |
| FIT Hon Teng | 6.9 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.0 |
| Tongda | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 22.2 |
| Q tech | 6.5 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 13.0 |
| TK Group | 4.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 18.6 |
Financial Highlights
Revenue Trends
- FY22E: RMB301,653 mn (-8% YoY)
- FY23E: RMB335,732 mn (+11% YoY)
- FY24E: RMB383,681 mn (+14% YoY)
Gross Margin Trends
- FY22E: 17.0%
- FY23E: 17.6%
- FY24E: 17.5%
Operating Margin Trends
- FY22E: 1.0%
- FY23E: 1.7%
- FY24E: 2.3%
Adjusted Net Margin Trends
- FY22E: 4.5%
- FY23E: 4.9%
- FY24E: 5.0%
Conclusion
Despite the weak performance in 2Q22 due to global demand slowdown and inventory destocking, Xiaomi remains a BUY with a target price of HK$14.81. The company is expected to recover in the second half of 2022 with product launches and a growing user base. The valuation is considered attractive, and the company is expected to benefit from continued overseas expansion and smart EV development.
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