2018年-世界发展银行全球_Kingdom_of_Morocco_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic___Governing_Towards_Efficiency_Equity_Education_and_Endurance_156页_4mb

Summary of the Morocco Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)

Core Content

The Morocco Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), published in June 2018, provides a comprehensive assessment of the country's economic and social development trajectory over the past 15 years. It highlights Morocco's achievements in poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and social development, while also identifying key challenges and priority pathways for achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

• Morocco has successfully eliminated extreme poverty and significantly reduced overall poverty levels.
• The percentage of the population living below the national poverty line (US$2.15 per day) dropped from 15.3% in 2001 to 4.8% in 2014.
• Shared prosperity has increased, with the well-being of the bottom 40% of the population improving relative to the rest of the population.
• Improvements in social indicators include a decline in fertility rates, increased life expectancy, and expanded access to education and basic public services.

2. Factors Behind Progress

• Pro-poor growth: Economic policies have contributed to poverty reduction and improved living standards.
• Investment in social services: Significant investment in education, health, and other social services has enhanced human development.
• Social safety nets: The implementation of social protection programs and cash transfers has supported vulnerable populations.

3. Challenges to Further Development

• Reducing inequalities: Despite progress, disparities in access to opportunities and resources persist, especially between regions and social groups.
• Attenuating the sentiment of poverty: Subjective perceptions of poverty remain high among certain segments of the population.
• Meeting the aspirational gap: Moroccan youth and women continue to have unmet aspirations, particularly in terms of employment, education, and social inclusion.
• Growing the middle class: There is a need to expand the middle class to ensure broader economic participation and stability.

4. Sustainability of Economic and Social Achievements

• Morocco's current growth model is based on public capital accumulation, which is unlikely to be sustained without improvements in total factor productivity (TFP).
• Sustainability challenges include economic, financial, territorial, environmental, and social dimensions.
• The SCD emphasizes the need for more inclusive market institutions, public governance, human capital formation, and social capital to support long-term growth.

5. Priority Pathways for Inclusive Development

The SCD outlines four key pathways to achieve more efficient, equitable, and sustainable development:

• Pathway 1: Getting closer to the efficiency frontier

  • Through competition and innovation
  • By improving the business environment and access to finance
  • Through better public policy formulation and coordination
  • By enhancing access to quality public services

• Pathway 2: Leveraging the efficiency frontier

  • Through labor market reforms
  • By implementing more targeted social protection programs
  • Through increased gender equity and inclusion

• Pathway 3: Pushing the efficiency frontier

  • By improving human capital formation, especially in early childhood development and education
  • Through better urban and territorial development

• Pathway 4: Greening the efficiency frontier

  • By integrating climate change adaptation and water management strategies

• Governance as an overarching pathway

  • Through access to information and accountability
  • By promoting voice, participation, and engagement
  • By strengthening the rule of law and justice

Conclusion

The SCD underscores the importance of governance in enabling all four pathways for sustainable and inclusive development. It calls for a shift toward a more dynamic private sector, improved productivity, and greater equity in economic and social outcomes. The report also highlights the need to address structural constraints in the business environment, public governance, and human capital formation to ensure long-term prosperity and reduce inequality.

Supporting Evidence and Data

• Morocco's GDP per capita growth averaged 3.3% between 2000 and 2015.
• The country has made progress in economic convergence with Southern European nations, narrowing its income gap with Spain by nearly 10% over 15 years.
• Public investment has averaged around 34% of GDP since the mid-2000s.
• Morocco remains a major destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), with a consistent 4% of GDP per year since 2011.
• Challenges include limited access to quality education and healthcare, weak institutional capacity, and obstacles to SME growth and competitiveness.

Key Constraints

• Market institutions: Lack of competition, limited access to finance, and regulatory uncertainty hinder SME development.
• Public governance: Weak implementation of the rule of law, corruption, and inefficiencies in public administration.
• Human capital: Poor education outcomes, limited access to healthcare, and low levels of early childhood development.
• Social capital: Low levels of trust and participation, especially among women and youth.

Institutional and Political Context

• Morocco is a constitutional monarchy with an elected parliament and has undergone significant political and institutional reforms since 1999.
• The 2011 Constitution laid the groundwork for a more open, democratic, and decentralized state.
• The government has engaged in extensive collaboration with the World Bank, IMF, and other international institutions to guide reforms and development strategies.

Conclusion

The SCD is a critical tool for identifying the constraints and opportunities in Morocco's development path. It calls for a comprehensive and sustained reform agenda to ensure that economic growth is inclusive, equitable, and environmentally sustainable, aligning with the goals of the 2011 Constitution and global development priorities.