2017年-世界发展银行全球_Peru_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic_184页_8mb

Perú Systematic Country Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report presents a Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Peru, conducted by the World Bank Group, highlighting key structural challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. It outlines the country's progress in poverty reduction, economic growth, and institutional development, while identifying areas requiring attention to ensure long-term prosperity and equity.

Main Views

1. Economic Performance

• Peru has been a standout performer in Latin America over the last 25 years, with GNI per capita reaching US$5,975 in 2015 (2011 PPP).
• The country's GDP per capita has recovered significantly over the past 15 years, with an average economic growth rate of 5.3% since 2001, second only to Panama in the region.
• Economic growth has been widely shared, with the poverty incidence rate dropping from 58% in 2004 to 23% in 2014.
• The bottom 40% of households saw faster income growth than the national average, contributing to shared prosperity.

2. Structural Challenges

• Peru's economic growth has historically been driven by private capital accumulation, particularly in the mining sector, which accounted for over 70% of total exports in the 2000s.
• The contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth has been relatively low, indicating a need for productivity improvements.
• Informal economic activity remains high, partly due to historically low state presence in remote areas and weak institutional frameworks.

3. Poverty and Inclusion

• Poverty is predominantly rural, with extreme poverty rates in rural areas being 13 times higher than in urban centers.
• Basic services and human development have improved alongside poverty reduction, but gaps remain, especially in health, education, and infrastructure.
• Indigenous populations face disadvantages in terms of poverty and service access, despite being a diverse and significant part of the population (about 25%).
• Social protection spending has increased, but per capita levels remain below regional averages.

4. Sustainability

• Environmental sustainability is a concern, with low wastewater treatment rates (only one-third treated) and rising pollution from mining and extractives.
• Climate vulnerability is high, with seven of nine natural disaster risk characteristics present in the country.
• Fiscal sustainability is under pressure due to low tax revenues and high public spending variability.

5. Institutional and Governance Issues

• Institutional weaknesses lead to low government coordination in service delivery and weak enforcement of regulations.
• Decentralization has been ineffective in addressing regional disparities, with poverty concentrated in Sierra and Selva regions.
• Public investment management is inefficient, with shortcomings in infrastructure and service delivery.
• Trust in the state is low, contributing to high economic informality and poor compliance with rules.

6. Human Capital and Education

• Human capital has improved, with life expectancy increasing by 8.8 years in 25 years and infant and maternal mortality rates falling by over 70%.
• Education outcomes show progress, with PISA scores improving and student performance in reading and math reaching regional averages.
• However, ethnic disparities persist, with indigenous students performing poorly in Spanish as a second language and higher levels of deprivation in urban areas.

7. Infrastructure and Connectivity

• Connecting infrastructure is underdeveloped, especially in Sierra and Selva regions, leading to high service delivery costs.
• Transportation networks are uneven, with Lima being the main economic hub and limited connectivity to medium and small cities in the Sierra and Selva.
• Logistic costs are high, especially for customs and infrastructure, and broadband internet penetration remains low.

Key Information

Priority Areas for Action

• Improving infrastructure and public services.
• Raising human capital through better education and health outcomes.
• Reducing market rigidities and enhancing productivity.
• Supporting sustainable development and addressing environmental risks.
• Strengthening institutional frameworks and public investment management.

Key Constraints

• Labor market rigidities and bureaucratic barriers (licenses and permits) are among the top constraints for managers.
• Regulatory constraints are a major factor in the high labor informality compared to Chile.
• High informal sector and low trust in the state contribute to poor governance and economic inefficiencies.

Future Aspirations

• Peru aims to become a high-income economy within the next 20 years.
• The transition to a more productive economy will be crucial, as TFP growth is necessary to close the income gap with the U.S.
• Social inclusion and equitable development remain key challenges.

Conclusion

Peru has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty and improving human development, but structural challenges in productivity, governance, and regional disparities continue to hinder sustainable and inclusive growth. The report emphasizes the need for policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and investment in infrastructure and human capital to achieve long-term development goals.