2018年-世界发展银行全球_Timor-Leste_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic___Pathways_for_a_New_Economy_and_Sustainable_Livelihoods_88页_7mb

Summary of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Timor-Leste

Core Content

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Timor-Leste outlines three key pathways for achieving the World Bank Group (WBG) twin goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. These pathways are designed to address the country’s developmental challenges, build institutional capacity, and ensure sustainable economic and environmental management.

Main Points

1. Continuing to Invest in Human Capital and Improved Service Delivery

• Public Health and Education Challenges: Despite progress, Timor-Leste still faces significant issues in health and education, especially in rural areas. Chronic malnutrition remains high, and access to basic services is limited, with poor attendance and multilingual education systems hindering learning outcomes.
• Poverty and Health: Poverty, hunger, and associated ill-health severely limit opportunities for individuals, especially children, and restrict their ability to invest in education and health.
• Service Delivery: The system for allocating and delivering resources to local service units is weak, leading to delays in budget execution and frequent stock-outs.
• Social Protection: Current social assistance programs are not effectively targeting the most vulnerable, and payments are minimal. Strengthening targeted social protection is critical to poverty reduction.
• Key Priorities:
  • Better support frontline services with timely and appropriate resources
  • Address malnutrition through integrated programs, especially improving water and sanitation in rural areas
  • Scale-up targeted social assistance programs
  • End gender-based violence

2. Sustaining Economic Growth and Private Sector Job Creation

• Economic Dependency: Timor-Leste’s economy is heavily dependent on petroleum revenues, which are not sustainable in the long term.
• Private Sector Development: The country needs to foster a vibrant private sector to create jobs for its growing working-age population and leverage the potential of a demographic dividend.
• Infrastructure and Policy: Investment in aviation, ICT, and road networks is essential, along with improved legal frameworks, sectoral regulation, and public-private partnerships.
• Economic Strategy: A clear strategy to promote private sector growth, increase productivity in agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, and develop new international markets (e.g., tourism) is necessary.
• Key Priorities:
  • Identify an economic strategy to sustainably increase private sector growth
  • Strengthen the legal foundations of a market economy
  • Increase productivity in key economic sectors
  • Develop multi-purpose, appropriate, and resilient connective infrastructure

3. Sustainable Management of the Natural Environment and Public Finances

• Environmental Stress: Natural resources, critical for livelihoods, are under significant stress due to poverty, conflict, and resource extraction. Rapid degradation of forests, mangroves, and biodiversity threatens future economic and social development.
• Fiscal Management: The government’s current fiscal strategy risks undermining long-term development by depleting fiscal assets now in pursuit of short-term growth. A careful and strategic approach is needed to avoid a fiscal cliff.
• Resource Utilization: Natural resources like fish stocks, forests, and agricultural land can support future sustainable livelihoods, such as higher-yield agriculture and tourism.
• Key Priorities:
  • Carefully manage public finances to avoid a damaging fiscal cliff
  • Manage natural landscapes, seascapes, and ecosystems as sustainable resources

Cross-Cutting Theme: Strengthening Institutional Frameworks

• Institutional Fragility: Weak institutions remain a central challenge for Timor-Leste, affecting all three pathways. This includes inefficiencies in public resource management, legal systems, and governance structures.
• Institutional Development: The country must continue to develop capable and accountable institutions to support inclusive and sustainable growth.
• Enabling Environment: A robust institutional framework is essential to create an enabling environment for policy-making, economic prosperity, and inclusivity.
• Strategic Planning: Institutional development must be supported by strategic planning, improved legal systems, and enhanced regulatory frameworks.

Key Information

• Poverty Levels: Over 40% of the population lacks the minimum resources to meet basic needs, and 30% still live below the $1.90 a day poverty line.
• Child Malnutrition: Half of all children suffer from stunting, and calorie consumption is very low.
• Demographics: The working-age population is growing rapidly, creating an urgent need for private sector job creation.
• Natural Resource Management: Timor-Leste is a resource-rich country, but its fragile ecosystems are under threat from environmental degradation and climate risks.
• Fiscal Resources: The country has a significant petroleum fund, but its use must be strategic and efficient to avoid wasteful spending and ensure long-term development.
• Governance: The government must improve public service delivery, legal and regulatory systems, and institutional accountability to support sustainable development.

Conclusion

The SCD emphasizes the need for targeted investments in human capital, private sector development, and natural resource sustainability, all underpinned by strong institutional frameworks. The success of Timor-Leste in achieving its twin goals depends on addressing these challenges through strategic planning, efficient resource use, and inclusive growth.