2018年-世界发展银行全球_Belarus_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic___Towards_a_Competitive_Inclusive_and_Dynamic_Belarus_68页_1mb

Summary of the Systematic Country Diagnostic: Towards a Competitive, Inclusive and Dynamic Belarus

Core Content

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) provides an analysis of Belarus's economic performance, challenges, and opportunities in the context of its transition from a centrally planned economy to a competitive, inclusive, and dynamic one. It outlines seven key priorities and a cross-cutting focus on climate change adaptation and disaster risk mitigation to support long-term sustainable growth and poverty reduction.

Main Achievements

Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

• From 2003 to 2014, Belarus achieved the largest reduction in poverty rates in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.
• Poverty headcount fell from 32% (at PPP US$5/day) in 2003 to less than 1% in 2014.
• At PPP US$10/day, poverty headcount dropped from 82% in 2003 to less than 10% in 2014.
• The poverty rate based on the national poverty line fell from 27.3% in 2003 to 5.7% in 2016.
• The middle-class population (defined as those with per capita expenditures above PPP US$10/day) increased from under 20% to 90% by 2014, before declining during the recession.

Inclusive Growth

• Inequality levels in Belarus are low by regional standards.
• Belarus was ranked 52nd in the 2016 Human Development Index (HDI), significantly higher than its GNI rank, indicating strong human development outcomes despite relatively low income levels.

Key Challenges

Economic Sustainability

• Belarus's growth model has become increasingly vulnerable, with a decline in external support and a shift in global economic conditions.
• The country experienced a growth slowdown after 2008, with annual growth averaging 3% from 2009–2014 and entering a recession in 2015–2016.
• The current account deficit and savings investment gap have become more pronounced, especially after the 2014 oil price drop.

Structural Inefficiencies

• The economy has been characterized by high state involvement and inefficiencies in the allocation of capital and labor.
• The state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to dominate GDP and employment, with the SOE sector accounting for 46.7% of GDP and 49.6% of employment in 2016.
• SOEs have been supported through subsidies, which have led to cross-subsidization and inefficiencies in the broader economy.
• Total factor productivity (TFP) growth has been negative for the last five years, indicating structural rigidities.

Social and Political Factors

• The reliance on external transfers (especially from Russia) has made the economy vulnerable.
• The high level of dollarization and continued state control over the economy suggest limited trust in domestic institutions.
• The social contract is under pressure due to the need to balance SOE restructuring with social protection.

Opportunities for Development

Enhancing Competitiveness

• A shift towards market forces in both real and financial sectors is essential for improving competitiveness.
• Strengthening the role of market signals in capital and labor allocation can lead to more efficient resource use.

Inclusive Growth

• Strengthening social safety nets and aligning labor market policies with market dynamics can help ensure inclusive growth.
• Active labor market policies and unemployment protection mechanisms are needed to support workers and the unemployed.

Institutional Reforms

• Reforming SOEs and improving governance structures are critical to making the business environment more dynamic.
• Enhancing cooperation between public and private sectors and improving legal and regulatory frameworks can support sustainable development.

Integration and Connectivity

• Belarus should aim to transition to a rules-based trading system, including WTO accession.
• Improving logistics and transport services can enhance connectivity and competitiveness.

Key Priorities

1. Maintain Macroeconomic Stability

• Prudent economic policy management.
• Address financial sector vulnerabilities.
• Enhance fiscal and public debt sustainability.

2. Strengthen Social Resilience

• Strengthen social safety nets.
• Develop adequate unemployment protection mechanisms.
• Implement active labor market policies.

3. Improve Economic Governance

• Reform SOEs and improve the efficiency of state-owned banks.
• Enhance cooperation between private and public sectors.
• Strengthen property rights protection.
• Increase the role of market signals in resource allocation.

4. Unleash Private Sector Growth Potential

• Ensure competitive neutrality and deregulation of product and factor markets.
• Eliminate cross-subsidization and improve public utility service delivery.

5. Maintain Human Capital Edge

• Improve the relevance, responsiveness, and quality of higher education, research, and innovation systems.
• Promote active and healthy aging.

6. Enhance Connectivity

• Transition to a rules-based trading system (WTO accession).
• Strengthen public investment management and SOE governance.
• Improve logistics potential and offer competitive transport services.

Cross-Cutting Priority: Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Mitigation

• Increase energy efficiency.
• Assess systematic needs and risk financing strategies.
• Promote the creation of resilient forests.

Risks and Constraints

• The economy faces significant refinancing needs due to large public debt maturity concentration.
• The high cost of external financing (e.g., 6.875% and 7.625% interest rates for Eurobonds) limits the ability to sustain growth without external support.
• Structural rigidities, including SOE dominance and inefficient resource allocation, continue to hinder growth and reform efforts.
• Recent growth volatility has highlighted the sensitivity of the economy to external shocks.

Conclusion

The SCD emphasizes the need for Belarus to continue its economic, social, and institutional transformation to achieve a sustainable, competitive, and inclusive growth trajectory. While the country has made significant progress in poverty reduction and human development, the challenges of structural inefficiencies, external dependence, and weak institutional frameworks must be addressed to ensure long-term prosperity. The identified priorities provide a roadmap for achieving these goals, with a focus on macroeconomic stability, social resilience, and institutional reform.