巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-阿根廷：大选追踪-20190411-42页_1mb

Argentina: Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

This report provides an updated analysis of the political landscape in Argentina, focusing on the 2019 presidential and provincial elections. It includes insights on public opinion, political figures, key issues, and the current state of the national and provincial legislatures.

Key Points

• Election Calendar and Process:

  • The 2019 elections include both national and provincial elections.
  • Presidential elections will be held on October 27, 2019. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second round will be held.
  • Provincial elections are occurring in various provinces, with some having combined dates with the national election and others not.

• Provincial Elections Overview:

  • All provinces except Corrientes and Santiago del Estero will elect governors and local legislators.
  • The province of Buenos Aires, which has a large population (almost 40% of Argentinians), has decided not to separate its elections from the national election, potentially boosting President Macri’s chances.
  • The election in Neuquén, which is home to the Vaca Muerta shale field, attracted significant attention due to its strategic importance and the endorsement of one of the candidates by former President Cristina Kirchner.

• Presidential Election Dynamics:

  • President Mauricio Macri’s approval rating has remained stable, while the net positive image of political figures within Cambiemos has deteriorated.
  • The opposition, particularly the Kirchnerist faction, is not significantly benefiting from the decline in Cambiemos' image.
  • Roberto Lavagna, a potential pre-candidate for the moderate faction of the Peronist party, is seen as a threat to Macri in a potential run-off.

• Voting Intentions:

  • In the first round of the presidential election, the leading candidates are:
    • Cambiemos: Mauricio Macri (15%), María Eugenia Vidal (16%), Elisa Carrió (4%), total 35%.
    • Kirchnerism: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (22%), total 29%.
    • Peronist Party: Sergio Massa (12%), Juan Manuel Urtubey (6%), total 18%.
    • Other: 7%.
  • The second round is expected to be crucial, with Lavagna potentially challenging Macri.

• Key Issues for Voters:

  • Confidence in government is low.
  • Voters are concerned about fiscal adjustment, economic performance, and the general situation of the country.
  • The main problem perceived by voters is economic instability.

• Parties and Leaders:

  • Cambiemos: A center-right coalition led by President Macri. It has 26 Senate seats and 108 lower chamber seats.
  • Frente Unidad Ciudadana: A left-wing coalition led by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, with 9 Senate and 64 lower chamber seats.
  • Peronist Party: A centrist, big-tent coalition with potential candidates like Roberto Lavagna, Sergio Massa, and Juan Manuel Urtubey. It holds 23 Senate and 37 lower chamber seats.
  • Rejection Rates: Cristina Kirchner remains among the most rejected candidates, while other leaders have varying levels of public support.

• Provincial Re-election Rules:

  • 3 provinces allow indefinite re-election: Catamarca, Formosa, Santa Cruz.
  • 2 provinces allow re-election for two additional terms: Salta, San Juan.
  • 17 provinces allow re-election for one additional term: Buenos Aires, CABA, Chaco, Chubut, Córdoba, Corrientes, Entre Ríos, Jujuy, La Pampa, La Rioja, Misiones, Neuquén, Río Negro, San Luis, S. del Estero, T. del Fuego, Tucumán.
  • 2 provinces allow re-election but not for consecutive terms: Mendoza, Santa Fe.

Summary of Political Affiliation of Provincial Governors

• Buenos Aires: María Eugenia Vidal (Cambiemos)
• CABA: María Eugenia Vidal (Cambiemos)
• Catamarca: Juan Manuel Urtubey (Peronist Party)
• Chaco: Mario Gutiérrez (Peronist Party)
• Chubut: Mario Negri (Cambiemos)
• Córdoba: Juan Schiaretti (Frente Hacemos por Córdoba)
• Corrientes: Gustavo Méndez (Peronist Party)
• Entre Ríos: Gustavo Gianulis (Peronist Party)
• Jujuy: Luis Juez (Peronist Party)
• La Pampa: Miguel Ángel Pichetto (Peronist Party)
• La Rioja: Héctor Zavalza (Peronist Party)
• Mendoza: Alfredo Raffo (Cambiemos)
• Misiones: Julio Zamora (Peronist Party)
• Neuquén: Alfredo Cornejo (Cambiemos)
• Río Negro: Héctor Bazzana (Cambiemos)
• San Juan: Alberto Rodríguez Saá (Cambiemos)
• San Luis: Daniel Filmus (Peronist Party)
• Santa Cruz: Julio Roca (Cambiemos)
• Santiago del Estero: No elections this year.
• Tucumán: María Eugenia Vidal (Cambiemos)
• T. del Fuego: Martín Sabbatini (Peronist Party)

Recent Publications

• Chile: BCCh rates are on hold, but rate hikes are expected.
• Mexico: Foreign exposure to Mbonos is rebounding.
• Brazil: Low interest rates but slow growth.
• Colombia: Expected rate hikes, later than anticipated.
• Argentina: The election outcome could be a deciding factor for the country’s future.

Disclaimer

This document is a marketing communication and not independent research. It may be subject to conflicts of interest due to BNPP's interaction with sales and trading. It is not intended for use by non-Relevant Persons. BNPP does not offer investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.