5G竞赛（英文版）_16页_924kb

5G Race Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the global progress and competition in the rollout of 5G technology, highlighting key deployment models, leading countries, and the critical role of commercially mature devices and pricing in driving adoption. It also presents the Arthur D. Little 5G Leadership Index, which evaluates countries based on infrastructure and commercialization factors.

Main Points

1. 5G is becoming widely available

• 5G networks are now being launched commercially by operators in several countries.
• First movers, such as South Korea, the US, Qatar, and the UAE, have a significant lead in the 5G race.
• The next-gen mobile user experience is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2019.

2. Arthur D. Little's 5G Deployment Models

Arthur D. Little identified five deployment models for 5G, which have been validated by global operator initiatives:

• Model #1: Gigabit broadband to the home

  • Operators are using 5G to provide high-speed broadband services.
  • This model is especially important in countries with low fiber penetration.
  • Examples include Verizon's 5G FWA deployment in the US.

• Model #3: Future Corporate Networks

  • 5G offers improved performance for corporate networks compared to Wi-Fi, 4G, and fiber.
  • Enables high throughput, low latency, and strong security for enterprise use.
  • Companies like Swisscom and Ypsomed are leveraging this model for smart factory applications.

• Model #4: Digital Industrial Ecosystems

  • These ecosystems involve multiple stakeholders and are critical for smart city development.
  • They require full network coverage and high data throughput.
  • KT's 5G deployment for the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics is a notable example.

3. Evolving Models

• Model #2: Next-Gen Mobile Broadband

  • Slow to evolve compared to the other models.
  • Will see increased experimentation with 5G mobile services and tariffs by operators.
  • Apple's delayed 5G iPhone launch may slow consumer adoption.

• Model #5: Next-Gen Infrastructure-as-a-Service

  • Neutral infrastructure providers like Dense Air are deploying this model.
  • Public initiatives, such as the EU's "5GCity" in Barcelona, are key for accelerating roll-out.
  • Cities like Vienna are also exploring multiple deployment models to ensure strategic investments.

4. 5G Leadership Index

• ADL developed the 5G Leadership Index to evaluate 40+ countries across two dimensions: infrastructure and commercialization.

• The index includes the following criteria:

  • Availability of 5G spectrum
  • 5G rollout commitments
  • Fiber coverage
  • 4G availability
  • Antenna density
  • Telco CAPEX investments
  • Number of 5G players
  • Trial intensity and success
  • Fiber household penetration
  • 4G usage
  • Household income
  • R&D spend as % of GDP

• Leading countries:

  • South Korea
  • US
  • Qatar
  • UAE
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • Switzerland
  • Finland

• Fast followers:

  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • UK
  • Italy

5. Key Rollout Drivers

• Gigabit broadband to the home (#1), future corporate networks (#3), and digital industrial ecosystems (#4) are the main drivers for 5G deployment.
• Commercially mature devices and strategic pricing are essential for broad 5G adoption.
• Verizon's 5G FWA offering is competitively priced and includes incentives such as free installation and trial periods.

6. Challenges and Opportunities

• Europe lags behind due to fragmented infrastructure, unresolved spectrum allocations, and slow regulatory processes.
• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are advancing rapidly.
• Spectrum allocation is a key enabler for 5G deployment, as it allows operators to roll out networks quickly.
• High-performance backhaul infrastructure helps reduce costs and increase the speed of 5G roll-out.

Key Information

• 5G is no longer futuristic, but will soon become widely available.
• First movers have positioned themselves for long-term value creation.
• Commercial maturity of devices and pricing is crucial for widespread adoption.
• Leading countries have already allocated 5G spectrum and are investing in infrastructure and use cases.
• Fast followers are expected to close the gap once spectrum is allocated.
• Non-telco players and neutral infrastructure providers are emerging as key participants in the 5G ecosystem.

Conclusion

The global 5G race is intensifying, with significant commercial network launches expected in 2019. Operators and governments must focus on strategic deployment models, infrastructure development, and pricing strategies to ensure successful and widespread adoption. The report emphasizes the importance of learning from early adopters and focusing on high-impact use cases to drive the future of 5G.