2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Egypt_after_the_presidential_election_4页_173kb

Summary of "Egypt after the presidential election" by James Moran

Core Content

This commentary by James Moran provides an analysis of Egypt's political and economic situation following President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi's re-election. It highlights the complex interplay between political stability, economic reform, and the evolving relationship between Egypt and the European Union (EU).

Main Political Developments

• Presidential Election and Public Sentiment: The re-election of President Al-Sisi saw a lower voter turnout and a higher number of spoiled ballots, indicating a shift in public sentiment. While many Egyptians appreciate the improved security, there is growing ambivalence toward his leadership due to the lack of credible political competition and restrictive electoral practices.
• Political Inclusion and Stability: The political strategy of the Egyptian authorities is criticized for being stagnant and overly reliant on the President. The removal of the two-term limit on presidential elections is seen as a move toward further concentration of power, which may undermine long-term stability.
• Opposition and Civil Society: The Egyptian political parties, except for the pro-establishment Wafd, are weak and unable to offer significant opposition. The Muslim Brotherhood is in a weakened state, and civil society faces severe restrictions due to repressive legislation, though it remains resilient.

Local Elections and Political Participation

• Local Elections: Scheduled for later in the year, these are seen as a potential opportunity to revive political life in Egypt. However, there are no signs of easing restrictions, and the security services are expected to suppress any organized opposition.

Economic Outlook

• Economic Recovery: The economy shows signs of improvement, particularly due to the IMF program and the stabilization of the Egyptian pound. Foreign reserves have increased, and the deficit has fallen by 20%.
• Sectoral Developments: Gas production from the Zhor field is expected to meet domestic demand soon, and tourism is gradually recovering. The Suez Canal's success in generating revenue remains uncertain.
• Fiscal Constraints: Despite the improved outlook, the fiscal deficit remains high at 10%, and military spending continues to limit the government's flexibility in other areas like education and health.

EU-Egypt Relations

• Migration and Cooperation: EU-Egypt cooperation on migration has improved, and the Valletta facility projects are beginning. The Egyptian Navy's collaboration with the EU's Sophia operation is also increasing.
• Trade and Investment: There is renewed interest in a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), which could attract EU foreign direct investment. European companies, including Italian and British firms, are involved in the Zhor gas field.
• Energy and Strategic Interests: The EU Energy Commissioner's visit and growing interest in Egypt's energy sector suggest a strategic alignment, particularly in reducing EU dependence on Russian gas.

Challenges in EU-Egypt Relations

• Counter-Terrorism and Human Rights: Cooperation on counter-terrorism remains limited due to disagreements over equipment supply, human rights, and the deployment of EU experts.
• Civil Society and Human Rights: The EU is concerned about the suppression of civil society and the unresolved case of Italian student Giulio Regeni, which has strained relations.
• Partnership Priorities: The EU partnership priorities agreement from July 2017 includes commitments to "universal values" such as democracy, rule of law, and human rights. These commitments are at risk of being ignored.

Key Concerns and Recommendations

• Judicial and Legislative Issues: The EU is closely watching the outcomes of the "foreign funding" case and the debate on the new NGO law, which could affect its support for civil society.
• EU's Role and Responsibilities: The EU is urged to maintain its focus on promoting democratic values and to ensure that its trade and development dialogues are effective. It should also encourage the Egyptian government to prioritize public services and address inequality to prevent the resurgence of groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.
• Regional Issues: The EU is expected to monitor the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam issue, as it could impact regional stability and Egypt's access to Nile waters.

Conclusion

While Egypt's political landscape remains constrained and the economy shows tentative signs of recovery, the EU has an opportunity to strengthen its relationship with Egypt by reinforcing its commitment to universal values and supporting meaningful political and economic reforms. Failure to do so risks repeating past patterns of instability and authoritarianism.