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Deloitte Global Powers of Retailing 2016 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Deloitte Global Powers of Retailing 2016 report provides an in-depth analysis of the world's largest retailers based on fiscal 2014 data, and explores the broader economic and digital trends influencing the retail sector. It also includes insights from the forthcoming study Navigating the New Digital Divide, which examines how digital technology is reshaping in-store consumer behavior across nine countries.

Main Economic Trends Affecting Retail

1. Currency Movements

• The US dollar strengthened significantly against most major currencies due to:
  • Low oil prices
  • Strong US economy
  • Expectations of tighter US monetary policy
  • Easing monetary policy in Europe and Japan
• Effects on Retail:
  • US consumers gained more purchasing power
  • Emerging markets faced rising import costs and increased default risks due to dollar appreciation
  • Export growth in Europe and Japan was boosted

2. Oil Prices

• Oil prices plummeted in the past year due to:
  • Surge in US shale production
  • Saudi Arabia increasing output
  • Weak global demand
• Effects on Retail:
  • Lower fuel costs increased consumer spending power
  • Emerging markets were negatively impacted due to weak growth and high external dollar debt
  • China's slowdown led to reduced demand for oil and commodities, affecting global prices and exporters

3. Low Inflation

• Inflation remains historically low in developed economies and China
• Causes:
  • Global excess capacity
  • Declining commodity prices
  • Financial market weakness
• Effects:
  • Monetary expansion has boosted asset prices rather than goods/services prices
  • Risk of deflation persists, which could increase real borrowing costs and hinder investment
  • Low bond yields have reduced pressure for government reforms

Major Markets Analysis

United States

• Economic Growth: Strong, with consumer spending and housing market growth
• Challenges:
  • Weak export growth due to the strong dollar
  • Weak business investment, especially in energy
• Retail Outlook: Expected growth of around 3.0% in 2016, with consumer demand driving most of it

China

• Economic Slowdown: Growth slowed to 7.0%, with some analysts suggesting it's even lower
• Causes:
  • Appreciation of the renminbi hurting exports
  • Excess industrial and property capacity
• Retail Outlook: Consumer demand is shifting toward domestic markets, with growth likely to stay under 7.0% in 2016

Europe

• Economic Recovery: Driven by ECB monetary policy and low oil prices
• Challenges:
  • High unemployment and political instability
  • Demographic challenges due to an aging population
• Retail Outlook: Moderate growth, with stronger consumer spending and reduced unemployment

Japan

• Economic Performance: Mixed, with a rebound in Q3 2015 but ongoing challenges
• Abenomics Policy: Only monetary expansion has been implemented, with limited success
• Retail Outlook: Consumers remain relatively affluent, but growth is constrained by demographic decline

Emerging Markets

• Global Impact: Suffered from capital outflows and currency depreciation due to:
  • Dollar appreciation
  • Slower growth
  • High external debt
• Bright Spot: India is benefiting from lower oil prices, allowing for monetary easing and growth support

Digital Influence in Retail

Digital Divide Concept

• The report introduces the idea of the "new digital divide", where consumer digital behaviors and expectations outpace the retailers' ability to deliver.
• Key Insight: Digital tools are not just affecting online sales, but also in-store behavior, increasing retailer reach and revenue potential.

Digital Influence Factor

• Measures the percentage of in-store sales influenced by digital device use
• Includes desktops, laptops, tablets, smartphones, and in-store devices

Mobile Influence Factor

• Focuses specifically on mobile device usage (smartphones)
• Highlights the growing role of mobile technology in retail decision-making

Consumer Behavior Trends

• Digital integration is becoming a necessity for in-store shopping
• Demographics (age, income) and product categories shape how consumers use digital tools
• Retailers are underestimating the potential of digital tools to enhance the in-store experience and drive sales

Top 250 Global Powers of Retailing (FY2014)

Conclusion

The Deloitte Global Powers of Retailing 2016 report highlights the interconnectedness of global economic trends and the digital transformation of the retail sector. While traditional retailers like Walmart and Costco dominate in terms of revenue, the report underscores the need for digital adaptation across all markets. Emerging markets face unique challenges due to currency fluctuations and external debt, while the US, China, and Japan are at different stages of economic and digital evolution. The "new digital divide" presents a critical challenge for retailers to meet evolving consumer expectations and to leverage digital tools effectively to drive growth and profitability.