2010年-世界发展银行全球_Post-Crisis_Growth_in_Developing_Countries___A_Special_Report_of_the_Commission_on_Growth_and_Development_on_the_Implications_of_the_2008_Financial_Crisis_100页_3mb

Post-Crisis Growth in Developing Countries: Summary

Core Content

This report, Post-Crisis Growth in Developing Countries, is a Special Report by the Commission on Growth and Development, published in December 2009. It analyzes the implications of the 2008 Financial Crisis on developing countries and evaluates the effectiveness of growth strategies in the post-crisis era.

Main Points

1. Purpose of the Report

• The report revisits the recommendations of the original Growth Report (2008) to assess the impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis on developing countries.
• It evaluates whether the previous growth strategies need revision or adaptation in light of the crisis.
• It explores the concept of resilience and how developing countries can better withstand future economic shocks.
• It considers the role of international institutions and the global economic environment in shaping future growth prospects.

2. The Crisis and Its Global Impact

• The 2008 Financial Crisis was a severe malfunction of the global financial system, particularly in advanced economies.
• It led to capital volatility, tight credit, and a rapid decline in trade, affecting even countries not directly involved.
• The crisis undermined the belief that financial markets could self-regulate due to self-interest, which was a core assumption of some economic theories.

3. Evaluation of Growth Strategies

• The report questions whether the previous growth strategies were flawed or if the crisis simply revealed risks that were not previously considered.
• It explores whether the risks of global exposure now outweigh the rewards.
• It suggests that the original growth strategies, which emphasized openness, market orientation, and resilience, remain broadly valid but may need adjustment.

4. Openness and Financial Development

• The report discusses global imbalances, the role of protectionism, and the implications of fiscal deficits.
• It highlights the importance of financial sector development and the sustainability of deficit spending.
• The U.S. dollar as a reserve currency is noted as a factor that may have contributed to the crisis.

5. Resilience and Policy Adaptation

• Countercyclical policies are identified as a key component of resilience.
• Distributional issues are addressed, emphasizing the need to protect vulnerable populations.
• The report stresses the importance of government capacity and credibility in supporting growth.
• It acknowledges the need for developing countries to potentially prioritize stability over growth in the post-crisis world.

6. International Agenda

• The report calls for international cooperation to address the challenges posed by the crisis.
• It suggests that global institutions like the G20 and the World Bank must be strengthened to support developing countries.
• The role of foreign policymakers in maintaining stability and resisting protectionist pressures is highlighted.

Key Information

• Commission Members: The report is authored by a diverse group of leaders from developing countries and prominent economists, including Robert Solow and Michael Spence.
• Workshop Participants: A range of experts and academics contributed to the analysis, including Daron Acemoglu, Viral Acharya, and Paul Romer.
• Statistical Appendix: A detailed statistical analysis is included, providing data on the crisis's impact and the economic conditions of developing countries.
• Global Impact: The crisis affected not only advanced economies but also developing countries, which experienced a sudden loss of foreign capital and trade.
• Resilience: The report emphasizes the need for developing countries to build resilience through sound macroeconomic policies and effective governance.

Structure of the Report

• Part 1: Introduction
  • Overview of the Commission's work and the purpose of the Special Report.
• Part 2: The Crisis
  • Detailed analysis of the 2008 Financial Crisis and its global consequences.
• Part 3: Questioning the Growth Strategies
  • Examination of what failed and what succeeded in previous growth strategies.
• Part 4: Openness and Financial Development
  • Focus on the role of openness, financial development, and global imbalances.
• Part 5: Resilience
  • Exploration of resilience mechanisms and international cooperation.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the financial system failed in 2008, the market system itself remained resilient. It reaffirms the value of market-oriented strategies for developing countries, while calling for a more cautious and adaptive approach to growth. The Commission believes that the original recommendations still hold, but with necessary modifications to account for the new global economic landscape.