国际能源署-芬兰2023年能源政策审查（英）-187页_4mb

Finland 2023 Energy Policy Summary

Core Content

Finland's energy and climate policy is focused on achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 while ensuring energy security, reducing energy import dependency, and promoting a sustainable economy. The country has made significant strides in this direction, particularly through the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear power, as well as the implementation of energy efficiency measures and consumer awareness campaigns.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Energy Policy Overview

• Climate Neutrality Target: Finland updated its Climate Change Act in July 2022, legally binding itself to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035.
• Key Targets:
  • 60% reduction in GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) by 2030
  • 80% reduction by 2040
  • 90–95% reduction by 2050
• Energy Mix (2021):
  • Total energy supply (TES): 1391 PJ
  • Bioenergy and waste: 33.6%
  • Oil: 20.8%
  • Nuclear: 18.5%
  • Natural gas: 6.4%
  • Electricity imports: 4.6%
  • Hydro: 4.1%
  • Peat: 2.7%
  • Wind: 2.2%
• Energy Intensity:
  • Per capita: 251.0 GJ (down 8% since 2011), higher than the IEA average of 166.7 GJ
  • Per GDP: 5.44 MJ per 2015 USD PPP (down 12% since 2011), higher than the IEA average of 3.7 MJ

2. Energy Security and Independence

• Reducing Fossil Fuel Reliance:
  • Fossil fuels accounted for 36% of TES in 2021, the second-lowest among IEA countries.
  • All fossil fuel supplies (crude oil, natural gas, coal) are imported.
• Response to Russian Invasion:
  • Finland reduced its reliance on Russian energy imports, especially after Russia cut off gas and electricity supplies in May 2022.
  • Secured a floating storage and regasification (FSRU) terminal in December 2022 to cover Finland and Estonia's gas needs.
• Consumer Awareness Campaign:
  • Launched in August 2022, leading to significant electricity savings from August to December 2022.

3. Energy Efficiency

• Key Pillar: Energy efficiency is central to Finland's strategy to achieve carbon neutrality and reduce energy bills.
• Sectoral Focus:
  • Industry: Accounts for over 50% of energy demand; energy efficiency agreements are expected to yield the most savings.
  • Buildings: Fuel switching from oil to more efficient heating solutions improved efficiency; Finland is a global leader in heat pump sales.
  • District Heating (DH): DH networks are transitioning to bioenergy and waste heat, with thermal storage solutions enhancing flexibility.
  • Transport: Improved performance of passenger cars and EV adoption, with the fleet doubling annually from 2012 to 2021. EVs are expected to dominate transport electrification by 2030.
• Government Actions:
  • Examining energy transition investment programs to reduce costs.
  • Preparing a loan guarantee program for energy efficiency, renewable heating, EV charging, and EV purchases.

4. Renewable Energy

• Growth and Deployment:
  • Onshore wind generation has seen strong growth.
  • Finland is developing its first large-scale offshore wind farms.
  • Solar PV is expected to rapidly increase deployment.
  • Biofuels play a central role in the transport sector, with a 19.5% blending mandate in early 2022, planned to rise to 34% by 2030.
• Heating and Cooling:
  • Renewable energy is expected to significantly reduce fossil fuel demand in the heating and cooling sectors.
  • The government aims to transition to non-combustion technologies like heat pumps, waste heat recovery, and geothermal energy in the long term.
• Energy Policy Documents:
  • The National Climate and Energy Strategy (NCES) outlines the measures for achieving 2035 climate neutrality and EU targets.

5. Energy Research and Innovation

• Innovation Leadership:
  • Finland ranks fourth in IEA countries for energy R&D investment as a share of GDP in 2020.
  • Focus on developing and commercializing new energy technologies to support the clean energy transition.
• Emerging Technologies:
  • Low-emission hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels are seen as key for heavy transport, maritime, and aviation.
  • Increased biomethane production is also a priority for transport and heating.
• Battery Supply Chain:
  • Finland is a major producer of critical minerals (cobalt, nickel, lithium, graphite).
  • The National Battery Strategy 2025 outlines a roadmap to become a major player in the international battery industry.
  • The government is promoting innovation and higher value-added products in the battery supply chain.

6. Nuclear Energy

• Nuclear Role:
  • Nuclear is the largest source of electricity generation (33% in 2021), expected to rise to over 40% with the start of the Olkiluoto 3 reactor in April 2023.
  • Finland has the sixth-highest share of nuclear generation among IEA countries.
• Nuclear Waste Management:
  • The Onkalo nuclear waste disposal facility, the world's first permanent geological disposal site for spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste, is expected to start operating in 2025.
• Uranium Supply:
  • No domestic uranium mining or enrichment facilities, but Terrafame (70% state-owned) is developing a uranium production site in Kainuu, with a permit issued in February 2022.

7. Natural Gas

• Role in Energy Mix:
  • Natural gas accounts for 6.4% of TES in 2021, lower than the IEA average of 24%.
• Import Dependency:
  • Gas imports are mainly from Russia, but efforts are underway to diversify sources.
• Policy Goals:
  • Reduce gas use, especially in heavy industry.
  • Increase industrial electrification and efficiency.
  • Boost production of biogas and low-emission hydrogen.

8. Oil

• Role in Energy Mix:
  • Oil accounts for 21% of TES in 2021, lower than the IEA average of 35%.
• Policy Measures:
  • The Roadmap to Fossil-Free Transport aims for a 50% reduction in transport emissions by 2030 (vs. 2005) and full phase-out by 2045.
  • Biofuels are a key interim strategy, with a 19.5% blending mandate in early 2022, planned to increase to 34% by 2030.
  • EVs are seen as the long-term solution for reducing oil consumption in transport.

9. Challenges and Recommendations

• Remaining Challenges:
  • Imported fossil fuels still make up over one-third of Finland's energy supply.
  • Transport and industrial sectors remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
  • Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) turned from a carbon sink to a net source of emissions in 2021.
• Key Recommendations:
  • Develop a contingency plan for the LULUCF sector to ensure carbon sinks.
  • Ensure temporary measures for energy price shocks do not undermine long-term clean energy investments.
  • Support increased deployment of energy storage to enhance grid resilience and flexibility.
  • Accelerate EV adoption and expand charging infrastructure.
  • Prepare an offshore wind power road map with clear regulations and targets.
  • Assess additional measures to further reduce oil consumption in transport to meet 2030 targets.

Conclusion

Finland is a leader in energy transition and innovation, with a clear vision for carbon neutrality by 2035. While it has made significant progress in reducing fossil fuel reliance and increasing renewable and nuclear energy use, challenges remain in sectors like transport and industry. The country's strategy emphasizes energy efficiency, technological innovation, and diversification of energy sources to ensure a secure and sustainable energy future. The recommendations aim to strengthen these efforts and address gaps in the current approach.