2018澳大利亚建筑市场状况（英文版）_16页_1mb

Construction Market Conditions 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2018 construction market in Australia experienced a mix of growth and adjustment across different regions and sectors, with overall confidence reaching its highest level in four years. Infrastructure investment remained a key driver, while residential and commercial sectors faced challenges due to changes in demand and supply dynamics.

Key Trends and Developments

National Trends

• Infrastructure Boom: Major infrastructure projects across New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, and other states are fueling construction activity and cost increases.
• Confidence Levels: The ANZ/Property Council Survey reported the highest confidence in the property sector in four years, with the mining states of Queensland and Western Australia showing strong recovery.
• Tender Price Escalation:
  • Infrastructure sector: Expected to see higher escalation rates, ranging from 4% to 5% in 2018 and 4.5% to 5.5% in 2019.
  • Non-infrastructure sector: Forecast to trend at 3% to 4% in 2018 and 3.25% to 3.75% in 2019.
• Economic Growth: The national economy showed momentum with GDP growth of 0.6% in the last quarter and 2.8% over the past year. Inflation remained below the Reserve Bank of Australia's target at 1.8%.
• Construction Activity:
  • Total construction work done in the first three quarters of 2017 reached $160 billion, up from $141 billion the previous year.
  • Engineering work increased by 18% in the September quarter, with a record 33% increase in Western Australia due to LNG platform imports.
  • Residential construction remained strong in NSW and Victoria, but faced challenges from foreign investment restrictions and affordability issues.

Regional Highlights

New South Wales (NSW)

• Construction Activity: Highly active across multiple sectors, with major projects like Western Sydney Airport and stadium redevelopments.
• Commercial Sector: Strong in the CBD and North Shore, with a 6% vacancy rate. Over 550,000m² of new commercial space is expected to be delivered from 2018 onwards.
• Residential Sector: Longest housing construction boom in the State's history, with a shift towards high-end luxury apartments and build-to-rent models.
• Tender Price Escalation: Forecast at 4.0% for the first half of 2018, rising to 4.5% by year-end.
• Labour and Material Pressures: Rising labour rates and material costs are affecting supply chains, with shortages of skilled workers contributing to the lag in closing the supply-demand gap.

Victoria

• Infrastructure Growth: Major projects like Melbourne Metro Rail, CityLink, and Tullamarine freeways are driving construction activity.
• Residential Sector: Adjusting to declining foreign investment, with a focus on high-end apartments and urban regeneration.
• Tender Price Escalation: Expected to trend at 3.0% to 3.25% in 2018, with potential for higher escalation in the future.
• Market Challenges: Tightening availability of specialist consultants and subcontractors, with rising costs expected to impact other sectors.

Queensland

• Multi-Residential Market: The boom peaked in 2017, with a slowdown in high-rise developments and a shift to more mature, high-end markets.
• Infrastructure Focus: Cross River Rail, schools, and water supply upgrades are expected to increase government investment.
• Natural Disasters: Cyclone Debbie spurred reconstruction activity, which is likely to continue into 2018.
• Tender Price Escalation: Expected to remain around 2.5% to 3% in 2018, with a slight increase to 3% in 2019.

Western Australia (WA)

• Stability and Confidence: Increased stability following the decline in mining, with strong retail and hospitality sectors.
• Infrastructure Projects: Green light for major road, rail, and port projects like "Metronet", which are expected to boost confidence.
• Tender Price Escalation: Closed out 2017 at 1.1%, with a forecast of 2% for 2018.
• Future Growth: Expected growth in sectors like defence, student accommodation, and aged care, though not fully active until Q4 2018.

South Australia

• Construction Activity: Positive with numerous cranes in the city skyline, indicating strong growth.
• Forecast Growth: Expected growth in sectors like aged care, student accommodation, and education.

Australian Capital Territory (ACT)

• High Confidence: All sectors show high confidence levels, with expected growth in commercial, retail, housing, and aged care.
• Tender Price Escalation: Forecast at 3.25% to 3.75% in 2018.

Northern Territory

• LNG and Defence Projects: Major contributors to construction activity.
• Tender Price Escalation: Expected to remain low at around 2% due to the state's economic challenges.

Summary of Key Sectors

• Residential:

  • Multi-residential sector is adjusting to reduced foreign investment.
  • High-end luxury apartments and build-to-rent models are gaining prominence.
  • Prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints.

• Commercial:

  • Strong in NSW and WA, with new developments and fit-out projects.
  • Vacancy rates are falling, especially in premium areas.

• Infrastructure:

  • Major projects are driving growth and cost escalation.
  • Escalation rates are higher in infrastructure compared to non-infrastructure sectors.

• Retail and Hospitality:

  • Strong growth in retail, especially in WA.
  • Hospitality sector is recovering, with a focus on boutique hotels.

• Engineering and Construction Services:

  • Engineering work is on the rise, particularly in public infrastructure.
  • Subcontractor and material costs are increasing due to high demand.

Conclusion

The Australian construction market in 2018 is characterized by strong infrastructure investment, shifting residential focus, and increasing competition in tender markets. While some regions like Queensland and WA are adjusting to economic changes, others such as NSW and Victoria continue to show robust growth. The overall market is expected to experience continued tender price escalation, with infrastructure projects likely to have a more significant impact on costs.