2018年澳大利亚建筑市场状况（英文）_18页-3mb

Construction Market Conditions Summary 2018

Core Content

WT Partnership is a leading construction and cost management consultancy in Australia, operating for nearly 70 years with over 50 offices and 1300 staff. The firm emphasizes local knowledge combined with a global perspective and is actively involved in shaping the future of sustainable urban development.

This report provides an analysis of the construction market in Australia, focusing on three main areas: Construction Activity, Key Performing Sectors, and Tender Price Escalation. It includes insights based on statistical data and local market trends across all Australian states and territories.

Main Points

• Infrastructure Boom: The infrastructure sector remains a major driver of construction activity, with significant projects in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia (WA).
• Residential Sector Shift: The multi-residential market is adjusting due to declining foreign investment, especially from China. There is a shift towards high-end luxury apartments, regional townships, and the build-to-rent model.
• Regional Variations: Different states are experiencing varying levels of activity and confidence. NSW and Victoria continue to show unrivaled growth, while Queensland and WA are recovering from the mining sector's decline.
• Tender Price Escalation: Escalation rates are expected to be higher in the infrastructure sector (4-5%) than in the non-infrastructure sector (3-4%) in 2018, with the latter trending slightly upwards in 2019.

Key Performing Sectors

• Infrastructure: Major projects such as Western Sydney Airport, Melbourne Metro Rail, and the Commonwealth Games Village in Queensland are fueling growth.
• Residential: The residential sector remains strong in NSW, with a focus on high-end apartments and luxury developments. However, the multi-residential market is facing challenges due to reduced foreign investment and increased affordability concerns.
• Commercial and Retail: Strong commercial activity in NSW, with projects like Quay Quarter and Parramatta Square, and increased retail development in WA and SA.
• Hospitality and Tourism: The hospitality sector is showing signs of recovery in WA, with a focus on boutique-style hotels. Tourism developments in Queensland, especially on the Gold Coast, are also expected to drive growth.
• Education and Health: These sectors are expected to see increased investment and activity, especially in Queensland and Victoria.
• Defence and LNG Projects: The Northern Territory and WA continue to benefit from major LNG and defence projects, which support the construction industry.

Tender Price Escalation Trends

• Nationally: Tender price escalation is expected to trend at around 4.0% in 2018, with potential increases to 4.5% towards the end of the year and beginning of 2019.
• State-by-State Forecast:
  • New South Wales: 4.0% pa for 2018, with potential for 4.5% by year-end.
  • Victoria: 3.0% to 3.25% in 2018, with an expected increase to 3.25% to 3.75% in 2019.
  • Queensland: 2.5% to 3% in 2017, expected to remain around this level in 2018 with a slight rise in 2019.
  • Western Australia: Escalation is expected to trend at around 3.5% pa in 2018.
  • South Australia: Positive construction activity with growth expected in sectors like aged care and education.
  • Australian Capital Territory (ACT): High confidence levels across all sectors, with expected growth in commercial, retail, and aged care.
  • Northern Territory: Limited escalation due to ongoing resource and mining challenges, expected to remain under 2%.
  • Tasmania: Increased construction activity, with escalation forecast at 3.5% pa.

Economic and Market Indicators

• National Economic Growth: Australia's economy grew by 0.6% in the last quarter and 2.8% over the past year, driven by public and private infrastructure investment.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: CPI inflation fell to 1.8%, and the RBA cash rate remained at 1.5%.
• Construction Activity Growth: Total construction work in the first three quarters of 2017 reached $160 billion, up from $141 billion in the previous year. Engineering work increased by 18%, while building work increased by 5%.
• Market Challenges: The shortage of skilled labor and rising material costs are contributing to the lag in closing the supply/demand gap, especially in the infrastructure and residential sectors.
• Project Pipeline: There are numerous major projects in the pipeline, including the Western Sydney Airport, Cross River Rail, and various commercial and residential developments.

Summary of Regional Highlights

• New South Wales: Strong infrastructure and commercial activity, with a significant increase in construction work. The residential sector is peaking due to foreign investment restrictions and housing affordability concerns.
• Victoria: Major infrastructure projects are underway, including the West Gate Tunnel and North East Link. Escalation rates are expected to rise as these projects impact the market.
• Queensland: The multi-residential market is slowing, but high-end luxury developments and tourism projects are expected to maintain activity. The state is also focusing on infrastructure and education.
• Western Australia: Increased confidence and stability in the construction market, with strong retail and hospitality activity. Major infrastructure projects are planned to commence in late 2018.
• South Australia: Positive construction activity with growth in various sectors, including aged care and education.
• Australian Capital Territory: High confidence levels across all sectors, with expected growth in commercial and retail.
• Northern Territory: Limited escalation due to the ongoing impact of the mining sector's decline.
• Tasmania: Increased construction activity and a forecasted escalation rate of 3.5% pa.

Conclusion

The Australian construction market is showing signs of resilience and adaptation, with infrastructure projects playing a central role in driving growth and cost escalation. While some regions are recovering from the mining sector's decline, others are experiencing continued strong activity. The market is expected to remain competitive, with challenges in labor and material supply, and opportunities in sustainable urban development and high-end residential and commercial projects.