2018澳大利亚建筑市场状况（英文版）_18页-3mb

Construction Market Conditions Summary - 2018

Core Information

WT Partnership is a leading construction and cost management consultancy in Australia, operating globally with over 50 offices and 1300 staff. The firm focuses on future-proofing cities through sustainable development and has a deep understanding of the construction market, driven by its involvement in major projects across the country.

The report highlights national and regional trends in construction activity, key performing sectors, and tender price escalation. It emphasizes the impact of government investment, population growth, and demographic changes on the industry.

Key Performing Sectors and Trends

1. Construction Activity

• Infrastructure Boom: Major projects in New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria continue to drive national construction activity.
• Regional Growth: Other states like Tasmania, South Australia, and the Northern Territory also show positive development, with new projects in infrastructure, defence, and LNG.
• Residential Shift: The multi-residential market is adjusting due to reduced foreign investment, particularly from China. High-end luxury apartments and build-to-rent models are emerging.
• Commercial and Retail: Strong growth in commercial sectors, especially in NSW and Victoria, with significant new developments in the pipeline.
• Hospitality and Tourism: Strong demand in hotels and resorts, supported by increasing overseas visitor numbers and the Commonwealth Games in Queensland.

2. Tender Price Escalation

• National Forecast: Tender price escalation is expected to be higher in the infrastructure sector compared to non-infrastructure.
• Infrastructure Escalation: Forecasted at 4–5% in 2018 and 4.5–5.5% in 2019.
• Non-Infrastructure Escalation: Expected to trend at 3–4% in 2018 and 3.25–3.75% in 2019.
• Regional Variations:
  • NSW: Escalation forecasted at 4.0% for 2018, with a potential rise to 4.5% in 2019.
  • Victoria: Escalation expected to trend at 3.0% and 3.25% respectively.
  • Tasmania: Forecasted at 3.5%.
  • Queensland: Escalation remains around 2.5–3% in 2018, with a slight increase expected in 2019.
  • Western Australia: Escalation is expected to remain stable, with a potential rise in the latter half of 2018.
  • South Australia: Positive activity with forecasted escalation in various sectors.
  • Australian Capital Territory (ACT): High confidence levels with expected escalation of 3.25%.
  • Northern Territory: Escalation is expected to be low, under 2%.

National Economic and Construction Indicators

Economic Growth

• The national economy showed growth of 0.6% in the last quarter and 2.8% over the past year.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at 1.5%, with CPI at 1.8%, below target.

Construction Growth

• Total construction value in the first three quarters of 2017 reached $160 billion, up from $141 billion in the previous year.
• Building Work: Increased by 5% in the first three quarters of 2017.
• Engineering Work: Rose by 18%, with a record 33% increase in the June to September quarter.
• NSW and Victoria: Continued strong performance with NSW seeing 11 consecutive quarters of growth and Victoria 13 quarters.

Regional Highlights

New South Wales (NSW)

• Strong infrastructure and commercial activity, with projects like Western Sydney Airport and Sydney Metro driving demand.
• Residential sector is peaking due to foreign investment restrictions and housing affordability.
• Labour and material shortages are contributing to cost escalation.
• Tender Escalation Forecast: 4.0% for 2018, rising to 4.5% in 2019.

Victoria

• Infrastructure projects such as Melbourne Metro Rail and Level Crossing Removal are underway.
• The market is facing increased competition and pressure on subcontractors.
• Tender Escalation Forecast: 3.0–3.25% in 2018, rising to 3.25–3.75% in 2019.

Queensland

• The multi-residential market is slowing, but high-end and luxury developments are on the rise.
• The Gold Coast construction market is active due to Commonwealth Games-related projects.
• The retail and hospitality sectors are showing recovery, with increased confidence in private development.
• Tender Escalation Forecast: 2.5–3% in 2018, with a slight increase in 2019.

Western Australia

• Increased stability and confidence in the construction market, with a focus on retail and residential.
• Major infrastructure projects like "Metronet" are expected to commence in late 2018/early 2019.
• Tender Escalation Forecast: Expected to remain stable in 2018, with potential increases as projects progress.

South Australia

• Positive construction activity with numerous cranes in the city skyline.
• Growth is expected in sectors like aged care, student accommodation, and education.
• Tender Escalation Forecast: Likely to rise as activity increases.

Australian Capital Territory (ACT)

• High confidence levels across all sectors.
• Expected to see increased activity in commercial, retail, and aged care construction.

Northern Territory

• Still recovering from the mining downturn.
• Tender Escalation Forecast: Likely to remain under 2% in 2018.

Challenges and Outlook

• Labour Shortages: A persistent issue across the industry, contributing to cost escalation.
• Material Costs: Rising prices for copper, iron ore, and steel are expected to impact the building services sector in 2018–2019.
• Market Adjustments: The shift from mining to non-mining infrastructure is creating new opportunities but also pressures on the traditional construction sectors.
• Confidence Levels: National confidence in the property sector has risen to its highest level in four years.
• Future Outlook: The construction industry is expected to continue adapting to increased demand, particularly in infrastructure, with cost pressures likely to persist.