20170705-三星证券-Short_of_consensus_as_a_group__Yuhan_attractive_43页_1mb
报告摘要
Sector Update Summary
Core Content
This document provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for several South Korean pharmaceutical companies, including Hanmi Pharmaceutical, Yuhan, Green Cross, Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical, and Donga ST. It includes forecasts, target prices, and valuation metrics based on Samsung Securities' research.
Main Points
- Overall Sector Outlook: The combined 2Q results of the five largest pharmaceutical firms are expected to slightly miss consensus. Hanmi Pharmaceutical and Donga ST are expected to miss by a larger margin.
- 3Q Outlook: Yuhan, Hanmi, Green Cross, and Donga ST are likely to benefit from low base effects, while Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical may suffer due to a high base.
- Key Companies:
- Yuhan: Expected to show strong sales growth across all product lines and is highlighted as an attractive investment during the earnings season.
- Hanmi Pharmaceutical: Long-term growth potential due to its pipeline drugs in late-phase trials. Domestic sales are expected to rise despite the absence of Galvus and increased R&D spending.
- Green Cross: Potential for US FDA approval of its IVIG in late 2017, which could drive sales and earnings.
- Donga ST: Faces challenges due to reduced reimbursements and the end of co-promotion agreements, leading to underperformance in 2Q.
- Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical: Expected to post solid operating profit due to stable marketing costs, but may face challenges in 3Q due to high base effects.
Key Information
Financial Performance (2Q17E)
| Company | Sales (KRWb) | Operating Profit (KRWb) | Net Profit (KRWb) | Sales vs Consensus (%) | Operating Profit vs Consensus (%) | Net Profit vs Consensus (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Cross | 316.0 | 24.5 | 18.5 | (3.6) | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Yuhan | 364.6 | 29.9 | 42.5 | (0.8) | (1.6) | 16.1 |
| Hanmi Pharm | 231.4 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 2.1 | (10.8) | 14.5 |
| Chong Kun Dang | 215.0 | 14.2 | 8.9 | (2.0) | (0.6) | (9.4) |
| Donga ST | 139.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | (1.7) | (47.6) | (78.9) |
Target Prices and Valuations
| Company | Current Price (KRW) | Target Price (KRW) | Upside (%) | 2017E P/E | 2018E P/E | 2017E P/B | 2018E P/B | 2017E EV/EBITDA | 2018E EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Cross | 173,000 | 210,000 | 21.4 | 36.4 | 36.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 19.2 | 19.5 |
| Yuhan | 242,500 | 330,000 | 36.1 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 |
| Hanmi Pharm | 370,500 | 450,000 | 21.5 | 85.5 | 70.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 36.7 | 32.3 |
| Chong Kun Dang | 122,000 | 140,000 | 14.8 | 25.4 | 19.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 13.3 | 10.7 |
| Donga ST | 91,500 | 110,000 | 20.2 | 176.5 | 21.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 10.3 |
Key Drivers
- Yuhan: Strong sales growth from licensed-in drugs, generics, and exports.
- Hanmi Pharmaceutical: Solid domestic growth from in-house drugs, despite reduced milestone revenue and R&D costs.
- Green Cross: Expected to benefit from IVIG FDA approval and export performance.
- Donga ST: Struggles with reimbursement cuts and co-promotion agreements ending, leading to underperformance.
- Chong Kun Dang Pharmaceutical: Strong operating profit due to stable marketing costs, but faces a high base in 3Q.
Conclusion
The report highlights that while the sector is expected to miss consensus in 2Q, certain companies like Yuhan and Hanmi Pharmaceutical are positioned for growth. Green Cross is noted for its potential FDA approval, and Donga ST faces significant challenges. The analysis suggests that these companies may benefit from low base effects in 3Q, with Yuhan showing particular promise. The report concludes with a recommendation of BUY for several firms, emphasizing their growth potential and valuation.
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