20250401-招银国际-石药集团-01093.HK-Resilient_BD_momentum_offsets_sales_pressure_5页

报告摘要

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) Summary

Core Content and Overview

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) is a Chinese pharmaceutical company facing revenue challenges due to inventory destocking in its oncology and cardiovascular segments. Despite a decline in sales for these key areas, the company is positioning itself for growth through its business development (BD) initiatives and new product launches.

Main Points

Revenue and Profit Performance

FY24 Revenue: RMB29.0bn, down 7.8% YoY.
Finished Drug Sales: RMB23.7bn, down 7.4% YoY.
Oncology Drug Sales: RMB4.4bn, down 28.3% YoY.
Cardiovascular Drug Sales: RMB2.1bn, down 14.8% YoY.
FY25 Revenue Forecast: RMB29.47bn, up 1.6% YoY.
FY26 Revenue Forecast: RMB29.64bn, up 0.6% YoY.
FY27 Revenue Forecast: RMB30.53bn, up 3.0% YoY.
Net Profit in FY24: RMB4.33bn, down 28.6% YoY.
Net Profit in FY25: RMB4.49bn, up 3.5% YoY.
Net Profit in FY26: RMB4.74bn, up 5.5% YoY.
Net Profit in FY27: RMB4.89bn, up 3.2% YoY.

BD and Pipeline

Out-Licensing Progress: CSPC has secured deals for YS2302018 (lipoprotein(a) inhibitor), SYH2039 (MAT2A inhibitor), and SYS6005 (ROR1 ADC).
R&D Spending: RMB5.2bn in FY24, supporting a robust pipeline of 40–50 assets.
BD Strategy: Aims to out-license 3–4 assets annually to drive recurring BD revenue.
Potential Candidates: Includes EGFR ADC (SYS6010), PD-1/IL15 bsAb, GFRAL mAb, ActRII mAb, and B7-H3 ADC.

Clinical Progress

SYS6010 (EGFR ADC): In Ph3 development globally, with key trials in China and plans for two Ph3 trials in the US in 2H25.
Key Data Readouts: Expected in 2025, with monotherapy data likely at AACR and combination therapy results at ASCO.

Key Financial Highlights

Metric	FY23A	FY24A	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E
Revenue (RMB mn)	31,450	29,009	29,473	29,636	30,525
YoY Growth (%)	1.7	-7.8	1.6	0.6	3.0
Net Profit (RMB mn)	4,338.8	4,339	4,490.2	4,736.0	4,885.9
YoY Growth (%)	-28.6	-28.6	3.5	5.5	3.2
EPS (Reported) (RMB)	0.37	0.37	0.39	0.41	0.42
P/E (x)	12.5	12.5	11.9	11.3	10.9
Net Gearing (%)	-23.5	-23.5	-27.3	-31.7	-35.3

Valuation and Investment Outlook

Target Price (TP): HK$5.71 (revised from HK$5.97).
Current Price: HK$4.94.
Up/Downside: 15.5%.
DCF Valuation (RMB mn): RMB61,254 (as of FY25E).
Terminal Value (RMB mn): RMB67,834.
Terminal Growth Rate: 2.00%.
WACC: 11.46%.
Cost of Equity: 15.10%.
Cost of Debt: 3.50%.
Equity Beta: 1.20.
Risk-Free Rate: 2.50%.
Market Risk Premium: 10.50%.

Sensitivity Analysis

Terminal Growth Rate	DCF per Share (HK$)
3.00%	6.70
2.50%	6.50
2.00%	5.98
1.50%	5.68
1.00%	5.41

Shareholding and Market Data

Market Cap (HK$ mn): 58,871.0.
Average 3 Months Turnover (HK$ mn): 393.0.
52-Week High/Low (HK$): 7.12/4.34.
Total Issued Shares (mn): 11,917.2.
Major Shareholders:
- Massive Giant Group Ltd: 10.6%
- Cai Dongchen: 10.4%

Share Performance

Period	Absolute (%)	Relative (%)
1-Month	4.9	4.1
3-Month	3.3	-10.3
6-Month	-18.3	-25.4

Financial Summary

Income Statement Highlights

Operating Profit: RMB5,908m (FY25E), RMB6,222m (FY26E), RMB6,398m (FY27E).
Net Profit: RMB4,490.2m (FY25E), RMB4,736.0m (FY26E), RMB4,885.9m (FY27E).
EPS (Reported): RMB0.39 (FY25E), RMB0.41 (FY26E), RMB0.42 (FY27E).

Balance Sheet Highlights

Total Assets: RMB46,833m (FY25E), RMB49,727m (FY26E), RMB52,886m (FY27E).
Total Liabilities: RMB10,742m (FY25E), RMB10,815m (FY26E), RMB11,065m (FY27E).
Total Shareholders' Equity: RMB34,504m (FY25E), RMB37,339m (FY26E), RMB40,263m (FY27E).

Cash Flow Highlights

Net Cash from Operations: RMB5,596m (FY25E), RMB5,857m (FY26E), RMB5,858m (FY27E).
Net Cash from Investing: RMB-1,500m (FY25E), RMB-1,500m (FY26E), RMB-1,500m (FY27E).
Net Cash from Financing: RMB-2,293m (FY25E), RMB-1,944m (FY26E), RMB-2,003m (FY27E).

Growth and Profitability

Metric	FY23A	FY24A	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E
Revenue Growth (%)	1.7	-7.8	1.6	0.6	3.0
Gross Profit Margin (%)	70.5%	70.0%	69.6%	69.4%	69.4%
Operating Margin (%)	20.99%	20.96%	20.05%	20.99%	20.96%
Net Margin (%)	15.94%	15.97%	15.20%	15.94%	15.97%
ROE (%)	19.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.2%	12.6%

Analyst Ratings and Investment Outlook

CMBIGM Rating: BUY.
Reason: Continued out-licensing deals could drive earnings growth.
Forecast: Revenue and attributable net profit are expected to increase by 1.6%/0.6% and 3.5%/5.5% YoY in FY25 and FY26, respectively.
Valuation: The DCF per share is HK$5.71, with a 15.5% upside from current price.

Risk and Disclaimer

Investment Risks: Market volatility, regulatory changes, and potential differences between forecast and actual performance.
CMBIGM Disclaimer: The report is not tailored to individual investors and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Conflict of Interest: CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned, which could affect objectivity.

Conclusion

CSPC Pharmaceutical is navigating a challenging sales environment, particularly in oncology and cardiovascular products, but is leveraging its strong R&D capabilities and BD strategy to drive sustainable revenue growth. The company is targeting a return to positive organic revenue growth in FY2025, with a revised target price of HK$5.71, reflecting a conservative outlook and potential for future earnings improvement through out-licensing and new product launches.

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