20260528-招银国际-石药集团-01093.HK-Core_sales_inflection_with_substantial_BD_optionality_6页_793kb
报告摘要
CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) Summary
Core Content
CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) is positioned for a significant sales inflection in FY26E, with core domestic sales showing stabilization and margin expansion. The company has transitioned into a global innovator, marked by a consistent out-licensing strategy and a highly differentiated late-stage pipeline. These factors are expected to drive long-term growth through recurring business development (BD) income.
Main Points
-
Sales and Revenue Trends:
- In 1Q26, CSPC reported total revenue of RMB6.47bn, with RMB146mn from BD income.
- Core product sales rose 7.7% QoQ and 0.4% YoY to RMB6.32bn, surpassing estimates.
- Ex-BD finished drug sales grew 4.0% QoQ in 1Q26, indicating a recovery in the CNS and cardiovascular portfolios.
- Revenue is projected to increase by 10.7% in FY26E and 6.4% in FY27E, with YoY growth expected to continue.
-
Margin Improvements:
- Product gross margin expanded to 65.2% (vs. 64.1% in 4Q25).
- Selling expense ratio dropped to 26.3% (vs. 28.4% in 4Q25).
- R&D expenses increased 7.7% YoY, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation.
- Net profit for 1Q26 was RMB860mn, significantly higher than 4Q25's RMB370mn and showing growth from 1Q25's RMB1.48bn.
-
Out-Licensing Strategy:
- CSPC secured a landmark out-licensing agreement with AstraZeneca in January 2026, with a potential value of over US$18.5bn.
- Additional out-licensing agreements were executed since late 2024, covering various therapeutic areas and innovative platforms.
- The company retains a deep pipeline of highly differentiated assets, enhancing its potential for future BD income.
-
Valuation and Investment Outlook:
- The DCF-based target price remains at HK$13.05, unchanged from previous estimates.
- The company is rated as a BUY, with a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
- The current price is HK$7.04, with an upside of 85.4% to the target price.
Key Financial Highlights
| Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 29,009 | 26,006 | 28,787 | 30,622 | 33,072 |
| YoY growth (%) | -7.8 | -10.4 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 8.0 |
| Net profit (RMB mn) | 4,338.8 | 3,876.1 | 5,706.3 | 5,620.8 | 6,969.8 |
| YoY growth (%) | -28.6 | -10.7 | 47.2 | -1.5 | 24.0 |
| EPS (Reported) (RMB) | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| P/E (x) | 16.5 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 10.0 |
| Net gearing (%) | -23.5 | -24.8 | -26.0 | -28.9 | -31.5 |
Out-Licensing Deals
| Date | Partner | Products | Upfront Payment (US$mn) | Milestone & Royalties (US$mn) | Regions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.01.30 | AstraZeneca | Weight management and type 2 diabetes portfolio | 1,200 | 17,300 + royalties | Outside of Greater China |
| 2025.07.30 | Madrigal | SYH2086 (Oral GLP-1) | 120 | 1,955 + royalties | Global |
| 2025.06.13 | AstraZeneca | AI-driven small molecule platform | 110 | 1,620 + 3,600 + royalties | Global |
| 2025.05.15 | Cipla USA | Irinotecan liposome injection | 15 | 25 + 1,025 + royalties | US |
| 2025.02.18 | Radiance Biopharma | SYS6005 (ROR1 ADC) | 15 | 150 + 1,075 + royalties | US, EU, UK, Switzerland, etc. |
| 2024.12.12 | BeOne | SYH2039 (MAT2A inhibitor) | 150 | 135 + 1,550 + royalties | Global |
| 2024.10.07 | AstraZeneca | YS2302018 (lipoprotein (a) inhibitor) | 100 | 370 + 1,550 + royalties | Global |
| 2023.02.23 | Corbus Pharma | SYS6002 (Nectin-4 ADC) | 8 | 130 + 555 + royalties | US, EU, UK, Canada, etc. |
Valuation and Sensitivity Analysis
- Terminal Growth Rate: 3.00%
- WACC: 9.34%
- DCF per Share: HK$13.05
- Sensitivity Analysis (HK$):
| Terminal Growth Rate | WACC 8.34% | WACC 8.84% | WACC 9.34% | WACC 9.84% | WACC 10.34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00% | 18.06 | 16.14 | 14.59 | 13.30 | 12.22 |
| 3.50% | 16.72 | 15.09 | 13.75 | 12.63 | 11.67 |
| 3.00% | 15.62 | 14.23 | 13.05 | 12.05 | 11.19 |
| 2.50% | 14.72 | 13.49 | 12.45 | 11.56 | 10.78 |
| 2.00% | 13.96 | 12.87 | 11.93 | 11.12 | 10.41 |
Financial Summary
| Metric | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 31,450 | 29,009 | 26,006 | 28,787 | 30,622 | 33,072 |
| Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 22,177 | 20,299 | 17,058 | 19,727 | 20,808 | 22,793 |
| Operating Profit (RMB mn) | 7,437 | 5,712 | 4,899 | 7,220 | 7,114 | 8,766 |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | 6,073 | 4,339 | 3,876 | 5,706 | 5,621 | 6,970 |
| EPS (RMB) | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| P/E (x) | 12.3 | 16.5 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 10.0 |
| Net Debt to Equity (x) | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Current Ratio (x) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| ROE (%) | 19.2 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 16.5 | 14.9 | 17.1 |
Analyst Ratings
- CMBIGM Rating: BUY
- Potential Return: Over 15% over next 12 months
- Target Price: HK$13.05
- Current Price: HK$7.04
- Upside: 85.4%
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute Return (%) | Relative Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-mth | -20.1 | -18.2 |
| 3-mth | -28.9 | -25.2 |
| 6-mth | -12.4 | -10.3 |
Shareholding Structure
| Shareholder | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Massive Giant Group Ltd | 10.6% |
| Cai Dongchen | 10.4% |
Market Data
| Metric | Value (HK$) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 83,897.1 |
| Avg 3 mths t/o | 761.8 |
| 52w High/Low | 11.48/6.82 |
| Total Issued Shares (mn) | 11,917.2 |
Risk and Disclaimer
- The report is for informational purposes only.
- It is not tailored to individual investor needs.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- CMBIGM does not assume liability for any reliance on the report.
- Investors are advised to consult financial advisors and conduct their own research.
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