20231201-招银国际-石药集团-01093.HK-New_products_to_drive_sales_recovery_5页_1mb

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) Report Summary

Financial Performance (9M23)

• Revenue: RMB23.87bn (+1.6% YoY), near FY estimates.
• Net Profit: RMB4.49bn (+0.6% YoY), slightly below consensus.
• Gross Margin: Dipped to 70.4% due to price erosion from Keaili and vitamin C products.

Product Analysis

• Finished Drugs: Sales increased 3.9% YoY to RMB19.34bn, but retail sector issues mildly impacted 3Q23 performance.
• CNS Products: Driven by NBP growth, recording 15.2% YoY growth.
• Oncology: Weakened by Keaili price cuts under centralized procurement, organic sales declined.
• Other Products: Antibiotic sales rose 17.9% YoY, offset by vitamin C and caffeine declines.

Growth Drivers

• New Products: Expected to launch in 2024, including Duoenda and irinotecan liposome, targeting RMB3bn in sales.
• Innovation Focus: Continued R&D investment (RMB3.68bn 9M23), including mRNA vaccine for EUA potential.

Analyst Recommendation

• Maintain BUY rating with 15.8% upside to target price HK$8.16.
• DCF-based valuation supports positive outlook, with revenue and profit expected to grow 10.8% YoY in FY24E.

Financial Outlook

• Forecasted revenue growth of 10.8% YoY in 2024, driven by new products and steady innovation.
• Valuation metrics like P/E suggest 11.1x forward P/E based on estimates.