> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) Summary ## Core Content CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) is a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company that has demonstrated significant growth in its domestic sales and has successfully transitioned into a global innovator. The company is expected to benefit from a growing business development (BD) income stream, driven by its highly differentiated, late-stage pipeline and a series of out-licensing deals. ## Main Points - **Domestic Sales Stabilizing and Margin Expansion**: - In 1H26, total revenue reached RMB18.6bn (+40.1% YoY), with RMB5.9bn of license fee income. - Ex-BD finished drug sales showed a fourth consecutive quarter of recovery, reaching RMB5.09bn in 2Q26 (flattish QoQ), indicating that domestic headwinds are bottoming out. - Sales were primarily driven by the CNS portfolio, especially NBP and Mingfule. - NBP was recently included in the 2026 National Essential Medicines List, which is expected to aid in primary-care penetration. - The company's product gross margin improved sequentially to 64.9% in 2Q26, and the selling expense ratio decreased to 25.6%. - R&D expenses increased by 18% YoY to RMB1.6bn, highlighting a sustained commitment to innovation. - Net profit in 2Q26 was RMB5.2bn, up from RMB860mn in 1Q26, driven by the AZ upfront payment. - **Out-Licensing Deals**: - CSPC has secured seven out-licensing agreements since late 2024, with total upfront and milestone payments exceeding US\$1.7bn and US\$33bn, respectively. - The AZ partnership has deepened with the establishment of a 51/49 biologics manufacturing joint venture in Shijiazhuang. - CSPC retains a strong pipeline of highly differentiated assets with potential for further BD income. - **Pipeline Catalysts**: - **SYS6010 (EGFR ADC)**: Initiated seven Phase 3 trials in China for various indications, including EGFRm NSCLC, EGFRwt NSCLC, 2L ESCC, and HER2-/EGFR+ BC. - Combined with a PD-1 mAb, it delivered a 52.4% uORR (n=42), with updated data expected at WCLC 2026. - **SYS6043 (B7-H3 ADC)**: Entered Phase 3 trials in ovarian cancer, with oral data updates expected at ESMO 2026. - **PD-1/IL-15 bsAb**, **EGFR ADC**, **B7-H3 ADC**, and multiple **siRNA** and **CAR-T** candidates are in development. - The **HPV vaccine SYS6026** has entered Phase 2, while the **COVID mRNA vaccine SYS6006** is in Phase 1/2 trials in combination with a PD-1 mAb for solid tumors. - **Financial Performance**: - **Revenue** for FY26E is expected at RMB32.15bn, with a YoY growth of 23.6%. - **Net profit** is forecasted at RMB9.098bn, a significant YoY increase of 134.7%. - **EPS** is projected to be RMB0.76 for FY26E, up from RMB0.34 in FY24A. - **P/E** is at 10.7x for FY26E, significantly lower than prior years. - **DCF-based target price** has been revised up from HK\$13.05 to HK\$13.44, with a 41.2% upside from the current price of HK\$9.52. - **Valuation and Sensitivity Analysis**: - The **DCF valuation** for FY26E is RMB119,096mn, with a terminal value of RMB185,555mn. - The **terminal growth rate** is 3.0%, and the **WACC** is 9.34%. - **Sensitivity analysis** shows the target price is sensitive to changes in WACC and terminal growth rate. - **Market Position and Analyst Ratings**: - CMBIGM maintains a **BUY** rating for CSPC, with a **target price of HK\$13.44**. - The stock is expected to deliver a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - The company's **market cap** is HK\$113,451.8mn, with a **3-month total return** of HK\$827.0mn. ## Key Information - **Shareholding Structure**: - Massive Giant Group Ltd: 10.6% - Cai Dongchen: 12.4% - **Share Performance**: - 1-month: 12.0% - 3-month: 28.8% - 6-month: -9.5% - **Risk Factors**: - Further price cuts of NBP in the NRDL renewal by end-2026. - Continuous strict drug promotion restrictions in the healthcare sector in China. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - **Gross margin**: 73.22% in FY26E. - **Operating margin**: 33.13% in FY26E. - **Net margin**: 27.16% in FY26E. - **ROE**: 25.6% in FY26E. - **Current ratio**: 2.7x. - **Net debt to equity**: 0.4x. - **P/B**: 2.3x. - **P/CFPS**: 11.8x. - **Dividend Yield**: - FY26E: 4.2% - FY27E: 3.4% - FY28E: 3.7% - **Capital Expenditure**: - Consistent at RMB2,000mn across the forecast periods. - **Cash Flow**: - **Operating cash flow** is expected to be RMB7,879mn in FY26E. - **Net cash from operations** has shown a positive trend, with an increase in FY26E. - **Valuation Metrics**: - **P/E (x)**: 10.7x for FY26E. - **P/E (diluted)**: 10.7x for FY26E. - **P/B**: 2.3x for FY26E. - **P/CFPS**: 11.8x for FY26E. ## Analyst Certification - The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal views. - No part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report. - The analyst confirms no trading or dealings in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's issue. - They will not trade in the stock for 3 business days after the report's issue. - The analyst does not serve as an officer of any Hong Kong listed companies covered in the report. - They have no financial interests in the companies covered in the report. ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months. - **NOT RATED**: Stock is not rated. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Disclosures - This report is not tailored to individual investors and is for informational purposes only. - CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and is not subject to U.S. rules on research report preparation and analyst independence. - The report is prepared solely for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed, or published without prior written consent. - The information is based on publicly available and reliable data, but accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness is not guaranteed. - CMBIGM may issue other publications with different information or conclusions.