20160415-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Macau Gaming and A-share Research Highlights Summary

Macau Gaming Industry Update

Core Content

A new proposal is under review in Macau, aiming to increase the hurdles for new junket entrants.
The proposal includes raising the capital requirement for new junket operators to MOP10 million (USD1.25 million) from the current MOP100,000 and requiring new gaming promoters to have at least one Macau shareholder.
There is also a consideration of building a shared "blacklist" of high-risk players who default on gaming loans.

Main Points

The measures are expected to consolidate the junket industry, thereby stabilizing the VIP segment.
These changes are seen as long-term positive, as the market has been concerned about margin decline and the exit of market participants.
The number of junket licensees has dropped from 235 in 2013 to 140 in 2016.

Key Implications

The increased barriers will protect existing junket operators from potential market cannibalization.
The shared blacklist will allow operators to collaborate in managing high-risk gamblers, reducing losses.
The sector is currently valued at 31x FY16E P/E and 15x EV/EBITDA, which are above historical levels.
Potential de-rating could occur due to weak GGR in April (low season) and weak 1Q16E results from Peninsula operators.
Melco Crown is expected to outperform due to the ramp-up of Studio City and the delay in Wynn Palace's opening, which reduces competition in the premium mass market.

Investment Recommendation

Melco Crown is the top pick with a NEUTRAL rating.
The company is expected to deliver strong earnings in 1Q16E and benefit from the industry consolidation.

A-share Research Highlights

Dongjiang Environmental (002672 CH)

Rating: STRONG BUY
Event: The company transferred its electronic product disassembling business to Sound Tianjin, generating RMB800 million in cash inflow.
Key Points:
1. The segregation of the electronic waste disassembling business improves cash flow and reduces uncertainty.
2. The company will focus on the hazardous waste disposal business, which is growing rapidly.
3. The cash inflow eases financing pressure and supports future M&A activities.
Expected Net Profit (2016-17E): RMB420 million and RMB660 million.
EPS (2016-17E): RMB0.48 and RMB0.76.
Risk Reminders:
- Falling commodity prices may affect recycling product prices.
- Sluggish progress in M&A funds.
- Delays in project commencement.
- M&A progress and size could be below consensus.
- Systematic market risks.

External Trade Data Commentary - March 2016

Total Trade Value: US$291.77 billion, up 2.0% YoY.
Exports: US$160.813 billion, up 11.5% YoY, exceeding market expectations.
Imports: US$130.956 billion, up 7.6% YoY, better than consensus.
Trade Surplus: US$29.857 billion in March 2016.
Core Views:
1. March exports were up 11.5% YoY, but this growth is attributed to a low base effect rather than a sustainable trend.
2. The PMI rebound suggests a marginal improvement in demand compared to January and February.
3. March imports were up 7.6% YoY, supported by commodity price increases.
4. 1Q16 exports were down 9.5% YoY, largely due to weak external demand.
5. The trade surplus is expected to narrow in 2016E due to external demand fluctuations and potential increases in domestic demand.

What to Watch: Economic Data and Research Coverage

Economic Data

Urban Investment (ytd): 10.20% (Prior: 10.20%, Forecast: 10.30%)
Industrial Output: 5.40% (Prior: 5.40%, Forecast: 5.90%)
Retail Sales: 10.20% (Prior: 10.20%, Forecast: 10.40%)
GDP: 6.80% (Prior: 6.80%, Forecast: --)

Research Coverage List (April 15, 2016)

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Apr. 14)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$8.22	HK$8.2	-0	5,351	0.69	0.74	0.84	9.5	9.0	9.8
China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.96	HK$3.5	18	844	0.29	0.39	0.46	8.2	6.1	6.4
Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$3.93	HK$4.6	17	4,479	0.26	0.33	0.40	12.1	9.6	9.8
BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.18	HK$6.5	5	5,986	0.44	0.52	0.58	11.2	9.6	0.0
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.54	HK$7.0	7	7,700	0.88	0.94	1.02	6.0	5.6	6.4
Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$18.54	HK$20.0	8	6,000	1.09	1.16	1.31	13.6	12.9	11.0
China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$4.6	HK$6.2	35	935	0.39	0.42	0.50	9.4	8.8	0.0
Zhongsheng Group	881 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.93	HK$3.8	-3	1,088	0.21	0.25	0.29	15.0	12.7	13.6

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Apr. 14)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$20.05	HK$23.8	19	17,927	2.59	2.36	2.71	7.7	8.5	5.4
Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.19	HK$2.6	19	1,078	0.54	0.52	0.61	4.1	4.2	3.6
Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.13	HK$2.7	-14	9,120	0.51	0.58	0.75	6.1	15.0	11.1
Agile Property	3383 HK	BUY	HK$4.49	HK$5.0	11	2,269	0.75	0.78	0.89	6.0	5.8	5.0
China Merchants Land	688 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$25.25	HK$28.2	12	32,120	3.47	3.27	3.46	7.3	7.7	6.4

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Apr. 14)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.27	HK$4.19	-2	7,644	0.25	0.24	0.27	13.7	14.4	15.8
China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$10.04	HK$11.55	15	31,015	0.44	0.46	0.53	18.3	17.6	18.9
China Mobile	941 HK	BUY	HK$89.8	HK$112.4	25	236,080	5.30	5.58	6.04	13.6	13.0	14.9
Wisdom	1661 HK	BUY	HK$2.95	HK$7.0	137	612	0.18	0.22	0.27	13.1	10.8	10.9
C CHUANGLIAN ED	2371 HK	BUY	HK$0.2	HK$0.79	305	120	0.01	0.02	0.04	16.0	8.1	9.5
Kingdee	268 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.67	HK$1.4	-48	878	0.10	0.34	0.43	41.5	30.5	24.1
Chinasoft	354 HK	BUY	HK$2.92	HK$3.66	25	700	0.12	0.15	0.20	19.5	15.7	14.6
Kingsoft	3888 HK	BUY	HK$19.16	HK$27.42	43	3,144	0.33	0.71	1.53	46.5	21.8	10.2
Boyaa Interactive	434 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.07	HK$3.7	21	302	0.25	0.29	0.37	9.8	8.6	8.3
Car Inc	699 HK	BUY	HK$9.14	HK$23.15	153	2,787	0.46	0.86	1.02	15.9	8.6	15.0
Tencent	700 HK	BUY	HK$165.0	HK$174.0	5	39,689	3.24	4.20	5.22	40.8	31.7	22.7
NetDragon	777 HK	BUY	HK$26.1	HK$41.3	58	1,667	0.03	0.23	0.34	696.4	91.6	76.8
Linekong Interactive	8267 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.55	HK$5.33	17	195	0.16	0.44	0.59	22.8	8.4	0.0
Cheetah Mobile	CMCM US	BUY	US$16.85	US$40.0	137	2,316	1.39	7.30	13.56	76.3	10.8	10.9
58.com	WUBA US	BUY	US$60.79	US$93.0	53	2,991	-1.02	1.31	1.88	N.A.	46.4	32.3
Datang Renewable Power	1798 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.91	HK$0.84	-8	294	0.01	0.01	0.03	72.8	73.5	30.3
Xinjiang Goldwind	2208 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$11.92	HK$11.0	-8	4,138	1.13	1.11	1.12	8.4	8.7	10.6
GCL-Poly Energy	3800 HK	BUY	HK$1.26	HK$1.59	26	2,517	0.12	0.14	0.15	10.5	9.0	8.4
China Longyuan Power	916 HK	BUY	HK$6.12	HK$6.9	13	6,344	0.38	0.43	0.49	12.9	11.5	12.5
Huaneng Renewables	958 HK	BUY	HK$2.49	HK$2.5	0	3,125	0.18	0.23	0.29	11.1	8.7	8.6
Xinyi Solar	968 HK	BUY	HK$3.02	HK$4.3	42	2,629	0.19	0.27	0.38	15.9	11.2	7.9

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Apr. 14)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Medical System	867 HK	BUY	HK$10.34	HK$14.0	35	3,318	0.40	0.54	0.68	20.7	15.5	15.2
China Biologic Products	CBPO US	BUY	US$122.5	US$144.0	18	3,146,413	3.68	4.26	5.33	33.3	28.8	20.3
ICBC	1398 HK	BUY	HK$4.33	HK$5.88	36	199,078	0.78	0.76	0.80	4.4	4.6	5.4
Minsheng	1988 HK	SELL	HK$7.29	HK$5.98	-18	34,311	1.26	1.22	1.30	4.6	4.8	5.6
BOCOM	3328 HK	BUY	HK$5.08	HK$6.75	33	48,666	0.89	0.87	0.90	4.6	4.7	5.6
BOC	3988 HK	BUY	HK$3.24	HK$4.72	46	123,042	0.58	0.58	0.60	4.5	4.5	5.4
China Construction Bank	939 HK	BUY	HK$5.08	HK$6.9	36	163,837	0.92	0.90	0.95	4.4	4.6	5.3
CITIC Bank	998 HK	SELL	HK$4.91	HK$3.92	-20	30,995	0.86	0.85	0.91	4.6	4.7	5.4

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Apr. 14)	12-month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
AIA	1299 HK	BUY	HK$45.7	HK$55.69	22	71,003	0.34	0.39	0.43	17.3	15.1	106.3
NCI	1336 HK	BUY	HK$27.75	HK$32.34	17	11,169	3.35	4.31	5.09	6.6	5.2	5.5
China Reinsurance	1508 HK	BUY	HK$2.16	HK$2.39	11	11,836	0.22	0.14	0.18	7.9	12.5	12.0
Ping An Insurance Group	2318 HK	BUY	HK$38.25	HK$43.89	15	90,198	3.08	3.53	3.91	9.9	8.8	9.8
PICC P&C	2328 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$14.4	HK$14.62	2	27,544	1.40	1.73	2.00	8.2	6.7	7.2
CPIC	2601 HK	BUY	HK$29.4	HK$39.24	33	34,376	1.94	2.18	2.43	12.1	10.9	12.1
China Life	262	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Summary of Key Points

The Macau gaming industry is undergoing restructuring with higher entry barriers for new junket operators, aiming to stabilize the VIP segment.
Dongjiang Environmental is a strong buy due to its cash inflow from business segregation, which improves cash flow and allows focus on the growing hazardous waste disposal business.
Macau's trade surplus was US$29.86 billion in March 2016, but is expected to narrow in 2016E due to external demand fluctuations.
Melco Crown is highlighted as a top pick in the gaming sector due to its expected outperformance and reduced competition.
The research coverage includes a variety of sectors, with notable recommendations in Auto, Property, Technology, and Banking.

展开完整摘要