20150316-法国巴黎银行-ASIA_OIL___GAS_CHEMICALS_19页_933kb

报告摘要

ASIA OIL & GAS/CHEMICALS Weekly Summary

Sector Fundamentals

Crude Oil

Brent crude oil prices fell by 6.7% to USD56.3/bbl.
WTI crude oil prices dropped by 5.4% to USD47.7/bbl, reaching a 6-year low.
US crude stocks increased by 4.5mb, marking the ninth consecutive week of record builds.
Inventory levels are 21.3% above last year and 25.0% higher than the five-year average.
US crude oil production rose by 39kbd to 9.3mbd, up from 8.1mbd in the previous year.

Refining

Singapore complex refining margins fell by USD0.2/bbl to USD9.4/bbl.
Individual product margins were all higher, with gasoline showing the strongest performance.
Asian gasoline demand has been strong, and Chinese demand is expected to outpace other oil products significantly this year.
Refining margins are forecasted to rise in 2015, with a positive outlook for the sector. However, the analysts caution that refining margins may peak in the first half of 2015.

Petrochemicals

Ethylene margins rose by 8.8% to USD573/tonne due to shortages in NE Asia as crackers prepare for maintenance in April.
Propylene margins increased by 0.7% to USD538/tonne, with a similar trend observed in SE Asia due to reduced operating rates in Indonesia and Thailand.
Chemicals margins rebounded after the Chinese New Year, and the analysts expect this trend to continue, albeit at a more measured pace.
Inventories remain low, contributing to the improved margins.
The forecast for MEG, PVC, and PP margins was slightly raised to reflect the positive outlook.

Best and Worst Performers

Best weekly performer: Lotte Chemical (011170 KS), with a 5.5% increase.
Worst weekly performer: UMW Oil & Gas (UMWOG IN), with a -16.1% decline.

Key Market Insights

Gasoline demand has seen a record increase, driving refining margins to levels last seen in 2004-07.
Global gasoline demand growth is forecasted at 3% in 2015, the highest in 30 years, led by OECD and developing Asia.
Refining earnings for Korean companies are expected to rise by 1-10% for 2015, while Formosa Group is forecasted to see a 3-24% decline due to potential inventory losses in Q1 2015.
Refiners' share prices are expected to benefit from the stronger refining outlook, although the analysts remain cautious about margin peaks in 1H15.
Top refining BUYs include FPCC, SKI, and GS Holdings.
Top chemical BUYs are Lotte Chem (LC) and LG Chem, with a preference for LC due to its planned maintenance only in 4Q15.

Market Outlook

Refining margins are expected to improve in 2015, with the first year of margin expansion since 2011.
Petrochemicals are showing signs of recovery, with ethane and propylene margins increasing.
Local currency depreciation against the USD provides a positive earnings tailwind.
Inventory levels are low, which is a positive factor for refining and petrochemicals.
The Asian naphtha cracker maintenance season is expected to sustain the positive momentum in the sector.

Supporting Data

Weekly oil prices and refining margins are presented in charts and tables for Brent, WTI, and other benchmarks.
Petrochemical margins are detailed in tables for various products like ethylene, propylene, MEG, PVC, and PP.
Stock performance is highlighted in charts and tables, including weekly changes and yearly trends.
Valuation metrics for the oil and chemicals sector are provided, including price potential upside, ratings, and dividend yields.

Conclusion

The Asia oil and gas/chemicals sector is showing mixed performance, with crude oil prices declining and refining and petrochemicals margins improving. The gasoline demand surge is a key driver for refining margins, while shortages in ethylene and low inventories are contributing to petrochemicals margin growth. Analysts are optimistic about the sector's performance in 2015, with Lotte Chemical and UMW Oil & Gas as the top performers and underperformers respectively. The refining sector is expected to benefit from higher margins, with Korean companies leading the BUY list. The petrochemicals sector is also positive, with Lotte Chem and LG Chem being the top BUYs.