20181016-法国巴黎银行-OIL_PRICE_FORECASTS_AND_OIL_BALANCE_9页_1mb

报告摘要

FOCUS|Global - Oil Price Forecasts and Oil Balance Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of global oil price forecasts and oil balance assumptions as of 16 October 2018, focusing on the expected trends in crude oil and product prices, as well as the supply and demand dynamics across different regions and timeframes.

Key Price Trends (as of 15 October 2018)

Product	Price (USD/bbl)	% Change vs. 1 Jan 2018	Price (USD/bbl)	% Change vs. 2 Jan 2017
NYMEX WTI	71.78	18.9%	60.37	37.2%
ICE Brent	80.76	21.4%	66.55	45.4%
Dubai	79.29	23.2%	64.36	44.9%
NYMEX RBOB	81.66	10.3%	74.05	19.9%
Eurobob	80.52	10.3%	72.99	25.1%
SGP Unl	88.77	16.1%	76.49	25.3%
NYMEX Heating Oil	97.68	13.0%	86.45	38.7%
ICE Gasoil	96.11	19.7%	80.27	46.1%
SGP Gasoil	95.59	21.4%	78.72	44.0%

The data shows that oil prices have generally increased compared to both 1 January 2018 and 2 January 2017, with varying degrees of growth across different benchmarks.

Price Forecasts (as of 3 September 2018)

Product	2017 (Q1-Q4)	2018 (Q1-Q4)	2019 (Q1-Q4)
NYMEX WTI	50.92-62.85	68-78	74-78
ICE Brent	54.73-67.19	74-85	79-85
Dubai	53.12-63.97	72-83	78-83
NYMEX RBOB	68.35-78.16	85-92	91-91
Eurobob	65.73-74.08	83-89	89-90
SGP Prem Unl	67.96-77.65	85-91	90-91
NYMEX Heating Oil	69.85-83.42	91-102	97-97
ICE Gasoil	66.37-79.79	88-98	95-95
SGP Gasoil	65.64-78.74	86-97	94-94

The forecasts suggest a general upward trend in oil prices for the coming years, with varying levels of expected growth across different regions and products.

Implied 3:2:1 Cracks

Crack	2017 (Q1-Q4)	2018 (Q1-Q4)	2019 (Q1-Q4)
US 3:2:1 WTI Crack	17.93-18.62	19-22	19-20
US 3:2:1 Brent Crack	14.12-12.25	13-16	14-15
Europe 3:2:1 Brent Crack	11.21-11.68	11-13	12-14
Singapore 3:2:1 Dubai Crack	14.07-12.52	13-16	13-13

These cracks indicate the margin between crude oil and refined products, reflecting the cost of refining and the potential profitability of refining operations.

World Oil Balance Assumptions

Item	2017 (Q1-Q4)	2018 (Q1-Q4)	2019 (Q1-Q4)
OECD Demand	46.9-48.1	47.8-48.3	47.9-48.6
Non-OECD Demand	49.6-50.5	50.4-51.8	51.4-52.6
World Demand	96.5-98.6	97.9-100.1	99.3-101.5
World Supply	96.7-98.3	98.3-99.8	99.3-101.5
OPEC Crude Oil Supply	32.3-33.0	32.3-32.4	32.4-32.0
Implied Global Stock Change	0.2-0.3	0.1-0.6	1.1-0.4

The global oil balance suggests a slight increase in world demand and supply, with OPEC crude supply remaining relatively stable, leading to a small implied global stock change.

Key Insights

Price Trends: Crude oil prices have shown a steady increase since 1 January 2017, with notable growth in both WTI and Brent benchmarks.
Forecasts: Prices are expected to continue rising in the coming quarters, with the highest projected growth in the 2019 period.
Crack Margins: The 3:2:1 crack margins suggest a generally profitable refining environment, though with some variation across regions.
Demand and Supply: OECD demand is expected to remain relatively stable, while non-OECD demand shows a slight increase. OPEC supply remains constant, with some countries like Iran and Venezuela showing reductions in production.
Stock Changes: Implied global stock changes are small but positive in 2018 and negative in 2017, indicating a slight surplus in the latter period.

Conclusion

The report indicates a positive outlook for oil prices in the near future, driven by increasing demand and relatively stable supply. The implied crack margins suggest a favorable refining environment, while the oil balance highlights the need for careful management of supply and demand dynamics. The data also underscores the importance of monitoring OPEC production decisions and global economic conditions for accurate forecasting.

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