CNA-赛博安全展望2025（网络安全）（英文）-2019.2-34页_853kb

Cybersecurity Futures 2025: Summary

Core Content

Cybersecurity Futures 2025 is a collaborative project between the University of California, Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC) and CNA's Institute for Public Research, with support from the World Economic Forum's Global Future Council on Cybersecurity. The project aimed to develop four scenario narratives that explore potential cybersecurity futures by 2025, designed to provoke discussion and inform strategic decision-making.

The report includes a detailed project description, insights from international workshops, and a set of four cybersecurity scenarios that outline possible future developments. These scenarios are not predictions but logical narratives that reflect how various forces—technology, economics, human behavior, and geopolitics—could converge to shape the cybersecurity landscape.

Main Points

• Nationalization of Cybersecurity: The discourse around digital technology and security has become increasingly nationalized, with a shift from a "free and open internet" narrative to one centered on national power and data control.

• Disillusionment with Cyber-Norms: Discussions about "cyber-norms" are seen as vague and lacking concrete meaning, leading to a loss of faith in their ability to guide real-world behavior.

• Risks of Overemphasis on Security: The focus on risk and threat may cause societies to overlook the potential benefits of digital technology if not managed properly.

• Digital Geopolitics: Digital technology is reshaping geopolitical alliances, with new actors (including non-state entities) becoming significant players, and traditional state-centric models being challenged.

• Job Displacement and Inequality: The rise of automation and digital technologies may lead to significant job displacement and inequality, affecting both labor markets and political stability.

• Platform Power and Regulation: Large digital platforms are now viewed as distinct entities requiring special attention and oversight. There is a growing recognition of the need for new regulatory approaches that reflect the global nature of these platforms.

• Cybersecurity and Scientific Innovation: Cybersecurity is becoming more scientifically complex, with the rise of adversarial machine learning, deep fakes, and algorithmic manipulation.

• Societal Resilience: There is a need for broader societal resilience programs to counteract the negative effects of digital security measures and to prepare for new forms of manipulation.

Key Insights

Overarching Observations

1. Nationalization of Cybersecurity: Cybersecurity is increasingly viewed through a national lens, with governments and states taking a more active role in securing digital assets and infrastructure.

2. Disillusionment with Cyber-Norms: The idea of global cyber-norms is seen as impractical, as different regions and cultures have diverging views on what constitutes acceptable behavior in cyberspace.

3. Loss of Trust in Technology: As digital systems become more precise and secure, societies may lose the flexibility and ambiguity that once helped manage social and economic life.

4. Emergence of New Security Challenges: The cybersecurity challenge is shifting from protecting against breaches to defending against manipulation and misinformation.

5. Convergence of Cybersecurity and Competition Policy: Cybersecurity and competition policy are increasingly overlapping, with national approaches to regulation influencing global security dynamics.

New Landscape Elements

1. Regulatory Shifts: The "golden mean" of light-touch regulation and permission-less innovation is under threat, with more experimentation in new regulatory models.

2. Geopolitical Realignment: Digital technologies are creating new geopolitical alliances and tensions, with firms and non-state actors playing a more prominent role.

3. Digital Inequality: The potential for digital-induced inequality is rising, and societies will need to assess their ability to absorb and manage such changes.

4. Platform Oversight: Large digital platforms are becoming a distinct category of power, requiring special attention and regulation.

5. AI and Security: The use of AI in cybersecurity is both a solution and a new source of vulnerability, as it introduces new risks and challenges in its own right.

Scenario Summaries

Scenario 1: Quantum Leap

By 2025, the first countries with practical quantum computing capabilities are working to create a non-proliferation regime. However, many other nations and cities resist this, opting for "quantum autonomy." The U.S. and China are considering accelerating the spread of quantum computing to allies, while the deviant sector (e.g., criminal networks) continues to exploit the technology. The U.S. has tightly controlled commercial use, raising concerns about transparency and public trust.

Scenario 2: The New Wiggle Room

In this scenario, the over-precision of digital systems leads to a loss of social flexibility. People seek new ways to reintroduce uncertainty and ambiguity, such as through the manipulation of identity. This shift introduces new security challenges and changes in international competition.

Scenario 3: Barlow's Revenge

This scenario explores the emergence of two contrasting models: one where governments step back from regulating the internet, and another where they embrace internet nationalism. The tension between these models creates both challenges and opportunities for global cybersecurity cooperation.

Scenario 4: Trust Us

A world where AI-driven security systems like "SafetyNet" are used to manage digital threats, but at the cost of introducing new vulnerabilities. The AI system enhances security but raises questions about its own safety and the values it is meant to protect.

Conclusion

Cybersecurity Futures 2025 provides a framework for anticipating and preparing for future challenges. It emphasizes the need for strategic foresight, international collaboration, and the development of new policies and frameworks to address the evolving cybersecurity landscape. The report encourages decision-makers to consider the broader implications of digital technologies on society, economy, and geopolitics.