2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Future_of_Turkey_35页_1mb

Summary of "The Future of Turkish-EU Trade Relations: Deepening vs Widening"

Core Content

This paper examines the future direction of Turkish-EU trade relations, focusing on the potential for deepening and widening the current customs union. It evaluates the impact of the existing framework and identifies areas for improvement in order to achieve greater economic integration between Turkey and the EU.

Main Points

1. Overview of the EU-Turkish Customs Union

• The customs union, established in 1995, is a unique and significant trade agreement between the EU and Turkey.
• It represents a major step in Turkey's integration into the EU Single Market, especially for trade in goods.
• Turkey is the only candidate country with such a customs union with the EU.
• The customs union includes technical integration in areas like competition law, intellectual property rights, and customs administration.

2. Economic Impact

• The customs union has led to positive economic outcomes for Turkey, primarily through trade creation.
• It has not significantly altered the relative trade shares between Turkey and the EU, as the EU had already opened its markets to Turkish exports.
• The customs union has enhanced bilateral trade and market access, contributing to welfare gains.

3. Trade Creation vs. Trade Diversion

• The customs union is welfare-enhancing and has led to trade creation.
• However, there is a risk of trade diversion if the EU maintains high tariffs with non-member countries.
• The data suggest that the customs union has mainly contributed to trade creation without significantly diverting trade from the rest of the world.

4. Gains from Customs Union

• Industrial tariff liberalisation has contributed to around 1% of GDP gains for Turkey.
• Harmonisation with the EU's common external tariff has added 0.5–1% of GDP.
• Deep integration measures such as technical regulations have contributed to around 0.5% of GDP gains.

5. Remaining Barriers

• Contingent protection (anti-dumping and countervailing duties) and safeguards still limit the full potential of the customs union.
• Technical barriers to trade persist due to the EU’s lack of recognition of certain Turkish certification procedures.
• Agriculture remains excluded from the customs union, which is a major area for potential expansion.

6. Policy Recommendations

• The customs union should be deepened by refining arrangements and addressing shortcomings.
• The widening of the customs union to include services and agriculture is also recommended.
• Public perception of the customs union is generally negative in Turkey, with some viewing it as a net loss.
• A concerted effort by government, business, and civil society is needed to improve the image of the customs union and promote its benefits.

Key Information

• The customs union has been a technical success, but not fully realised in terms of economic integration.
• Deepening the customs union involves improving regulatory alignment, addressing technical barriers, and eliminating trade defence measures.
• Widening the customs union would involve expanding it to services and agriculture.
• The EU's external trade policy has led to asymmetric integration, creating policy inconsistencies.
• The customs union has contributed to productivity improvements and modernisation of Turkey’s economic legislation.
• Public perception in Turkey is a challenge for the customs union, and communication efforts are essential to its success.

Conclusion

The EU-Turkish customs union is a significant milestone in trade integration, but it still has limitations. To fully realise its potential, both parties must work flexibly to eliminate trade defence measures and forge a more comprehensive framework. The paper suggests that deepening and widening the customs union could lead to greater economic benefits for Turkey.