2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Growth_and_Immigration_Scenarios_for_Turkey_and_the_EU_16页_203kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Growth and Immigration Scenarios for Turkey and the EU"

Core Content

This study by Refik Erzan, Umut Kuzubas, and Nilufer Yildiz examines the potential immigration from Turkey to the EU under different scenarios of economic growth, EU membership, and labor mobility. The research is based on the experiences of other EU accession countries and is part of the EU-Turkey Working Paper series, aiming to inform policy decisions in the pre-accession period.

Main Viewpoints

EU Cannot Have Zero Migration: Even under strict migration controls, there is an annual net migration of about 35,000 people from Turkey to the EU-15.
EU Membership and Free Movement Reduce Migration Pressures: Successful EU accession with high growth and effective reforms leads to a gradual decline in migration.
Suspension of Accession Increases Migration: If Turkey's accession is delayed or suspended, it may lead to lower growth, higher unemployment, and a more significant migration flow to the EU.
Composition of Migration Matters: The migration would be less favorable for EU labor markets and integration if it occurs under unfavorable economic conditions in Turkey.
Turkey's Unique Situation: Unlike Southern European countries, Turkey's migration patterns are influenced by its distinct socioeconomic and political context, including its nomadic tradition and lack of prior EU membership experience.

Key Information

Migration Forecasts

Baseline Scenario (High Growth, Membership, Free Movement): Net migration from Turkey to the EU-15 is projected to be around 2.1 million by 2030.
Suspension Scenario (Lower Growth, No Membership, No Free Movement): Net migration could rise to 2.7 million by 2030.
EU Commission Impact Study: Forecasts range between 0.5 and 4.4 million, but higher estimates require exaggerated data and methodology.
Southern Europe Reference (Greece, Portugal, Spain): Projections under a free movement scenario are 1 million, while under the guest worker scenario, it reaches 2 million.
All Europe Reference: Projections under free movement are 1.1 million, while under the guest worker scenario, it is 1.8 million.
Turkey's Own Experience: Projections under this reference suggest 2.1 million net migration by 2030.

Methodology

The study uses econometric models and statistical inferences based on past migration experiences.
Key variables include income and employment differences, migrant stocks, and dummy variables for EU membership and guest worker agreements.
Naturalization and family unification are significant factors in migration from Turkey to the EU.

Demographic Impact

The aging of the Turkish population is expected to reduce migration inflows by about 300,000 by 2030.
Migration propensity varies by age group, with those aged 55 and above showing very low migration tendencies.

Conclusion

The study highlights that EU membership and economic growth in Turkey are crucial in reducing migration pressures.
Suspension of accession could lead to higher migration due to economic decline and political instability.
Despite optimistic assumptions, the migration numbers remain moderate compared to sensationalist estimates.
The composition of migration under unfavorable conditions could be more problematic for the EU's labor markets and integration efforts.

Tables Summary

Reference Group	High Growth – Membership – Free Movement	Lower Growth – No Membership – No Free Movement
All Europe	1.073 million (2004-2030)	1.838 million (2004-2030)
Southern Europe (Greece, Portugal, Spain)	960 thousand (2004-2030)	1.92 million (2004-2030)
Only Turkish Experience	2.134 million (2004-2030)	2.734 million (2004-2030)

Authors and Institutions

Authors: Refik Erzan, Umut Kuzubas, and Nilufer Yildiz from Bogazici University, Istanbul.
Sponsors: The study was supported by the Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation (OSIAF).
Conference: Presented at the International Conference on Immigration Issues in EU-Turkish Relations, held at Bogazici University, 8-9 October 2004.
CEPS: The Centre for European Policy Studies provides the EU-Turkey Working Paper series and publishes a monthly Turkey in Europe Monitor.