2017年Q4全球经济形势调查报告（英文版）_30页

Summary of the Global Economic Conditions Survey Final Report: Q4, 2017

About ACCA and IMA®

ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) are global professional accounting bodies. ACCA supports over 200,000 members and 486,000 students in 180 countries, while IMA has more than 85,000 members in 140 countries. The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted jointly by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants, monitoring a wide range of economic variables.

Core Content and Key Findings

• Global Economic Confidence: Slightly dipped in Q4 2017 but remains higher than the past couple of years. The number of respondents expecting conditions to worsen now exceeds those expecting improvement by 14 percentage points.
• Regional Confidence: Central and South America is the most confident region, followed by North America and South Asia. Confidence is lowest in the Caribbean and the Middle East, with the Caribbean suffering due to hurricanes and the Middle East impacted by oil price slumps.
• Main Concerns: Increased costs (52%) and decreased incomes (39%) are the top concerns, followed by foreign currency movements (28%). Suppliers going out of business (10%) is the least cited concern.
• Positive Developments: The opportunity to lower costs (43%) and focus on innovation (40%) are the main positive developments. However, the opportunity to increase orders is the least cited.
• US Economic Outlook: Confidence in the US rebounded strongly, reaching its highest level since early 2017. The tax cuts and jobs act are expected to boost the economy, but there is a risk of inflation rather than growth. The tax cuts may also increase government debt.
• China's Economic Outlook: Confidence in China dropped, reflecting slowing growth and concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery. There is hope for market-oriented reforms to help the private sector compete with state-owned enterprises.
• Global Financial Crisis 10 Years On: The world economy is more secure than a decade ago, with reduced risky lending and improved regulations. However, there are concerns about debt bubbles in emerging markets and the risk of a repeat crisis.
• Low Interest Rates: Uncertainty remains about how the global economy will exit the low interest rate policy. If rates remain too low, asset prices could rise further, but aggressive tightening could choke the current recovery.

Thematic Analysis

• US Tax Cuts: The 2017 tax cuts are expected to provide a fiscal boost, but with the economy near full employment, the risk of inflation overgrowth is significant.
• China's Reforms: The recent NPC changes suggest a more economically liberal direction, potentially allowing the private sector to compete with state-owned enterprises. However, the effectiveness of these reforms is uncertain.
• Global Financial Crisis: The global economy is more resilient, but there are still vulnerabilities, especially in emerging markets with rising debt levels.

Regional Analysis

• North America: Confidence improved significantly in Q4, with 31% more confident and 26% less confident. The US outlook is positive, with the tax cuts expected to boost growth.
• Caribbean: Confidence plummeted due to the impact of hurricanes in 2017. Tourism, a key sector, is likely to suffer in the near term.
• Western Europe: Confidence dropped, with a 18 percentage point gap between those expecting conditions to worsen and improve. Despite strong growth, political uncertainty and structural issues remain concerns.
• UK: Confidence remained low, with rising costs as the biggest concern. The Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh on the economy, though there is optimism about growth picking up.
• Ireland: Confidence dipped slightly but remains relatively high. Recent progress in Brexit negotiations has helped, and the economy is on a recovery path.
• Cyprus: Economic confidence has improved, but the banking sector remains weak, and the current account deficit has widened, making the economy vulnerable.
• Central & Eastern Europe (CEE): Confidence is at its lowest since Q3 2016. The region faces capacity constraints and may need aggressive policy tightening to control growth.
• South Asia (India): Confidence is the highest in the survey, with 26% more respondents expecting improvement than worsening. The economy is seen as poised for growth in 2018.

Key Information

• Survey Methodology: The Q4 2017 GECS received 4,011 responses, including over 250 CFOs.
• Economic Indicators: The survey results are consistent with PMIs and hard economic data, indicating a generally healthy global economy.
• Future Outlook: While confidence is high in some regions, there are concerns about inflation, debt sustainability, and political uncertainty. The GECS is considered a trusted barometer for the global economy.