2016年Q4全球经济形势调查报告_33页-1mb

2016 Q4 Global Economic Conditions Survey Report Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide, monitoring a wide range of economic variables and gathering insights from over 4,500 respondents, including more than 350 CFOs. The survey provides a trusted barometer of global economic conditions, with its main indices serving as good predictors of GDP growth and showing correlation with the VIX index, which measures expected stock price volatility.

The report highlights the decline in global economic confidence in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by a rise in political and economic risks. The government expenditure index fell to its lowest level since the start of 2016, and the capital expenditure and investment opportunities indices also declined. Declining incomes were the main concern for 44% of respondents, with exchange rate volatility also being a significant worry for 40%. Hiring plans and investment intentions also showed a downward trend, with 52% of respondents considering staff cuts or freezes, and 38% planning to scale back capital projects.

Main Views

• Global confidence decline:

  • A drop in government spending, capital expenditure, and investment opportunities indices contributed to the decline in global confidence.
  • Declining incomes were the primary concern for 44% of respondents.
  • The decline was observed in both OECD and non-OECD economies, with the Eurozone at its lowest confidence level since Q4 2012.

• Impact of a strong US dollar:

  • While a stronger US dollar is not a major threat to emerging markets, some countries with large current account deficits, such as South Africa, Turkey, Peru, and Colombia, could be affected.
  • The US Federal Reserve's rate hike in December 2016 triggered concerns about capital flows from emerging markets.

• Political uncertainty:

  • The report notes the impact of political events, including the UK's Brexit vote and the US presidential election, on economic confidence.
  • The EU is under increased scrutiny due to its weak economic performance and upcoming elections.

Key Information

Regional Analysis

• North America:

  • Economic confidence in North America rose to its highest level since Q4 2014.
  • The US showed improved confidence, driven by expectations of tax cuts and increased government spending.
  • Canada's confidence dropped, influenced by a weaker currency and the threat of the US administration potentially withdrawing from NAFTA.

• Western Europe:

  • Confidence remained low, with capital expenditure, employment, and investment indices in negative territory.
  • Inflationary pressures are increasing, but remain muted overall.
  • Greece and Italy face significant challenges due to high public debt and weak banking sectors.

• UK:

  • Confidence fell sharply in Q4, reaching its second-lowest level since Q4 2011.
  • The Brexit vote created uncertainty, with 25% of respondents viewing the risks as greater than the opportunities.
  • Despite this, the UK economy showed resilience with stable employment and robust retail spending.

• Ireland:

  • Economic confidence fell to its lowest level since Q2 2012.
  • The UK's Brexit decision has had a major impact on Ireland, which is heavily dependent on UK exports and investment.

• Central & Eastern Europe (CEE):

  • Confidence remained weak, with the capital expenditure and employment indices still negative.
  • Turkey faced the most significant deterioration in economic prospects following the failed coup attempt.

• Russia:

  • Confidence reached its highest level since Q2 2015.
  • The economy is beginning to recover from the oil price slump, with the rouble stabilizing and inflation dropping.

• Asia Pacific:

  • Confidence fell in Q4, with 52% of respondents feeling either much less or slightly less confident.
  • Pakistan's confidence improved due to an IMF loan deal and infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

• India:

  • Sentiment slightly worsened in Q4, reaching its lowest level since the start of 2016.
  • Despite challenges with demonetisation, long-term growth prospects are positive due to recent economic reforms.

• Emerging Markets:

  • The report suggests that while a stronger US dollar is not a major threat, some countries remain vulnerable due to current account deficits and reliance on foreign capital.

Outlook for 2017

• The US is expected to see continued confidence growth due to fiscal stimulus, though the strong dollar may impact export competitiveness.
• The Eurozone faces continued uncertainty, especially with upcoming elections in key countries like Italy, France, and Germany.
• Emerging markets are likely to experience increased volatility due to potential tightening in global financing conditions.
• The UK is expected to see a slight slowdown in growth but with a potential rebound in 2018.
• The IMF predicts that Brazil will return to growth in 2017 due to improving political and economic conditions.

Conclusion

The report underscores the impact of political and economic risks on global confidence, particularly in the wake of major events like Brexit and the US election. While some regions like the US and Russia showed signs of recovery, others such as the Eurozone and Asia Pacific faced continued challenges. The GECS remains a crucial tool for understanding global economic trends, with its indices providing valuable insights into business sentiment and macroeconomic performance.