国际能源署-乌干达2023能源政策审查（英）-2023.11-184页_2mb

Energy Policy Review: Uganda 2023

Executive Summary

Uganda aims to achieve universal energy access, increase renewable energy use, and reduce energy intensity by 2040. Despite progress in electricity generation (1,346 MW capacity), challenges remain, including transmission bottlenecks, high tariffs, and limited energy efficiency. The country is exploring nuclear power, geothermal energy, and oil refining, but environmental concerns and funding gaps pose risks. The IEA recommends developing an Energy Transition Plan, enhancing data collection, and addressing affordability issues.

1. Electricity Generation

• Capacity and Mix: 92% renewable (mostly hydropower), with plans to expand solar and nuclear.
• Transmission Issues: Grid underinvestment limits surplus power use; transmission losses average 40-50%.
• Reforms: Planned merger of state-owned entities aims to reduce costs, but reforms face implementation challenges.

2. Renewable Energy

• Potential: Significant geothermal and solar potential, though underdeveloped.
• Barriers: High exploration costs, regulatory uncertainty, and funding gaps.
• Current Use: Renewables account for 92% of electricity generation.

3. Access to Electricity

• Rates: 30% of the population has grid access (~20 million people), lower than regional averages.
• Affordability: High tariffs and connection costs limit uptake; subsidy programs and grid extensions aim to improve access.
• Off-Grid Solutions: Solar home systems and mini-grids are growing but face regulatory hurdles.

4. Access to Clean Cooking

• Status: Only 5-6% of households use clean cooking fuels.
• Challenges: High costs of stoves and LPG, limited distribution infrastructure.
• Opportunities: Carbon finance, cookstove subsidies, and LPG infrastructure development.

5. Oil and Gas

• Reserves: 6.5 billion barrels, with production expected to start in 2025.
• Economic Potential: Oil aims to diversify energy supply, reduce imports, but environmental risks from extraction are concerns.
• Investment Risks: Capital-intensive projects face financing challenges.

6. Critical Minerals

• Resources: Significant deposits of cobalt, copper, and rare earths.
• Strategic Importance: Could position Uganda as a key supplier for clean energy technologies.
• Policy Gaps: Requires regulatory clarity and local content policies.

7. Energy Efficiency

• Gaps: Limited enforcement of MEPS and building codes.
• Potential: Significant energy savings possible, especially in industry and buildings.
• Initiatives: ESCO programs and digital tools aim to unlock efficiency gains.

8. Energy, Climate Change, and the Environment

• Deforestation: Biomass use drives high deforestation rates (1.44% annual loss).
• Climate Vulnerability: Hydropower dependent on water resources; oil developments risk environmental harm.
• Mitigation: Uganda’s NDC targets 24.7% GHG emissions reduction by 2030.

9. Investment

• Attraction: Uganda ranks high in FDI for East/Southern Africa.
• Challenges: Limited domestic capital, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure deficits.
• Opportunities: DFIs and blended finance can support renewable projects.

Key Recommendations

1. Accelerate reforms to attract private investment in transmission and distribution.
2. Strengthen data systems and energy efficiency enforcement.
3. Leverage carbon finance and climate funds for clean energy projects.
4. Address affordability barriers for clean energy adoption.

This summary captures the core findings and recommendations from the IEA's in-depth review of Uganda's energy policies and challenges.