国际能源署-哥伦比亚能源概况（英）-2023.11-13页_9mb

Colombia's energy profile, as detailed in the IEA Latin America Energy Outlook, highlights its role as a major energy exporter and consumer. The country is the 6th largest coal exporter globally and features Bogota as the largest city in Latin America. Key strengths include the world's 8th largest electric bus fleet, supporting sustainable transport goals.

The analysis covers energy scenarios: the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) reflects business-as-usual policies, while the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) incorporates ambitious pledges for emission reductions and renewable transition. Colombia committed to a 51% GHG emission reduction below business-as-usual by 2030 under its NDC.

Policies are diverse: a carbon tax on petroleum derivatives (US$5/t CO2-eq) is set to increase to US$12/t CO2-eq by 2028; Law 2056 regulates royalties; a National Hydrogen Strategy aims for 40% low-emissions hydrogen in industry by 2030; and the E2050 strategy targets 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050. Energy efficiency measures include COP26 commitments to double efficiency for air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., by 2030.

Major infrastructure projects display investment in renewables, such as hydrogen plants in Cartagena and Barrancabermeja (dedicated renewable capacity by 2026-2027), and the Sebastopol refinery delay due to COVID. Public transport upgrades, like Bogota's Metro Rail Line 1, are planned for 2028.

Energy consumption patterns show high transport and building use; scenarios predict significant increases by 2050, with STEPS leading in transport and industry growth, while APS shifts to electrification and renewable dominance. For instance, transport emissions drop 55% in APS due to EV adoption, and industry fuel switching reduces coal reliance. Electricity demand rises sharply in APS, with smart charging potentially easing peaks, and generation increasingly from solar, wind, and hydrogen.

Policy developments and infrastructure reflect a push toward sustainability, but challenges include phasing out oil and gas exploration. Investment in clean energy supply rises from 0.6% to 1.4% of GDP in APS, with grid development being crucial.

Overall, Colombia's energy transition depends on policy implementation, with APS offering a pathway to reduced emissions and enhanced energy security by leveraging renewables and electrification while facing risks in fossil fuel exports.