20151007-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_981kb

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (07 October 2015)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market for various currency pairs, focusing on short-term and medium-term outlooks, key support and resistance levels, and economic indicators influencing market trends. The analysis highlights the impact of central bank policies, economic data releases, and global events on currency movements.

Main Currency Pairs and Views

AUD/SGD: 1.0185

• 24-Hour View: The AUD/SGD pair broke above the 1.0140 resistance and reached 1.0186. The rally appears incomplete and is expected to extend higher to 1.0240.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish outlook. The target is for a retest of the previous high near 1.0240.
• Support Levels: 1.0110
• Resistance Levels: 1.02, 1.0240
• Key Resistance: 1.0240, which would indicate further strength in AUD.

USD/SGD: 1.4205

• 24-Hour View: The pair experienced a choppy session, closing at 1.4189 after hitting an intraday high of 1.4282. It is expected to range between 1.4093 and 1.4240.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. A corrective pullback could extend lower to 1.4095.
• Support Levels: 1.4160, 1.4095
• Resistance Levels: 1.4280, 1.4330

EUR/SGD: 1.6010

• 24-Hour View: The pair is expected to range between 1.5950 and 1.6080 due to consolidation.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. Volatile trading is expected, with key support at 1.5670 and resistance at 1.6240.

GBP/SGD: 2.1640

• 24-Hour View: GBP/SGD is expected to range between 2.1570 and 2.1700.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. Further choppy price action is expected.
• Support Levels: 2.1570, 2.1475
• Resistance Levels: 2.1730, 2.1835

JPY/SGD: 1.1815

• 24-Hour View: The pair is expected to range between 1.1780 and 1.1865.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade within the range of 1.1700 to 1.1940.
• Support Levels: 1.1780, 1.1700
• Resistance Levels: 1.1865, 1.1940

USD/MYR: 4.3350

• 24-Hour View: The pair edged up slightly, but a move below 4.3500 could indicate a pullback to 4.3100.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. A pullback could extend to 4.3100.
• Support Levels: 4.3100, 4.2800
• Resistance Levels: 4.3800, 4.4100

USD/THB: 36.26

• 24-Hour View: The pair is expected to range between 36.10 and 36.46.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. A corrective pullback is expected.
• Support Levels: 36.15, 36.10
• Resistance Levels: 36.38, 36.46

USD/CNH: 6.3500

• 24-Hour View: USD/CNH traded narrowly and is expected to remain within the range of 6.3470 to 6.3590.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is in a consolidation phase.
• Support Levels: 6.3450, 6.3335
• Resistance Levels: 6.3670, 6.3880

EUR/USD: 1.1265

• 24-Hour View: EUR/USD is expected to extend its upward move, with a break below 1.1225 indicating a short-term top.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. A clear break above 1.1315/20 is needed to signal a bullish phase.
• Support Levels: 1.1225, 1.1160
• Resistance Levels: 1.1290, 1.1320

GBP/USD: 1.5225

• 24-Hour View: GBP/USD recovered above the 1.5130 support, with the rally expected to extend to 1.5310.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The current rebound is expected to extend to 1.5310.
• Support Levels: 1.5185, 1.5130
• Resistance Levels: 1.5280, 1.5310

AUD/USD: 0.7160

• 24-Hour View: AUD/USD surged above the 0.7120 target, reaching 0.7176. The rally is expected to extend to 0.7280.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. A retest of the previous high near 0.7280 is expected.
• Support Levels: 0.7120, 0.7060
• Resistance Levels: 0.7210, 0.7280

NZD/USD: 0.6555

• 24-Hour View: NZD/USD rallied to 0.6556, with further momentum suggesting a move to 0.6600.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. The rally is expected to extend to 0.6600.
• Support Levels: 0.6515, 0.6480
• Resistance Levels: 0.6600, 0.6650

Key Economic Indicators and Policy Outlook

Fed Policy

• Fed Funds Rate: 0.00-0.25%
• Next FOMC Meeting: 28-Oct-15
• UOB Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 0.50%
  • end 1Q16: 0.75%
  • end 2Q16: 1.00%
  • end 3Q16: 1.25%

MAS Policy

• Next MAS Meeting: 14-Oct-15
• SGD NEER Index: -1.3% below midpoint
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 1.43
  • end 1Q16: 1.45
  • end 2Q16: 1.46
  • end 3Q16: 1.44

BNM Policy

• Next BNM Meeting: 05-Nov-15
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 4.40
  • end 1Q16: 4.18
  • end 2Q16: 4.15
  • end 3Q16: 4.06

BOT Policy

• Next BOT Meeting: 24-Oct-15
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 35.5
  • end 1Q16: 35.8
  • end 2Q16: 36.0
  • end 3Q16: 36.0

RBNZ Policy

• Next RBNZ Meeting: 30-Oct-15
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 0.62
  • end 1Q16: 0.61
  • end 2Q16: 0.60
  • end 3Q16: 0.60

BOE Policy

• Next BOE Meeting: 08-Oct-15 (no policy change expected)
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 1.58
  • end 1Q16: 1.60
  • end 2Q16: 1.61
  • end 3Q16: 1.62

RBA Policy

• Next RBA Meeting: 03-Nov-15
• Cash Rate: 2.00%
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 0.71
  • end 1Q16: 0.71
  • end 2Q16: 0.70
  • end 3Q16: 0.69

BOJ Policy

• Next BOJ Meeting: 07-Oct-15 (no policy change expected)
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • end 4Q15: 124
  • end 1Q16: 126
  • end 2Q16: 127
  • end 3Q16: 128

Summary of FX Outlook (06-Oct-15)

FX Pairs	Open	High	Low	Close	1-day	1-week	1-month	YTD
USD/SGD	1.4321	1.4329	1.4181	1.4207	-0.83%	-0.55%	-0.50%	+7.14%
EUR/SGD	1.6072	1.6104	1.5850	1.5887	-1.05%	-1.02%	-0.32%	-0.91%
GBP/SGD	2.1740	2.1799	2.1478	2.1509	-1.08%	-0.70%	-1.30%	+4.21%
AUD/SGD	1.0083	1.0137	1.0039	1.0058	-0.34%	+0.80%	+1.79%	-7.09%
JPY/SGD	1.1935	1.1947	1.1766	1.1790	-1.29%	-0.94%	-1.47%	+6.48%
USD/MYR	4.3990	4.4095	4.3715	4.3800	-0.68%	-1.01%	+1.21%	+25.3%
USD/THB	36.44	36.47	36.21	36.25	-0.43%	-0.27%	+0.41%	+10.1%
USD/CNH	6.3582	6.3636	6.3450	6.3475	-0.12%	-0.15%	-2.04%	+2.09%
EUR/USD	1.1219	1.1289	1.1170	1.1185	-0.21%	-0.51%	+0.16%	-7.53%
GBP/USD	1.5190	1.5245	1.5130	1.5143	-0.27%	-0.22%	-0.83%	-2.77%
AUD/USD	0.7058	0.7112	0.7043	0.7086	+0.45%	+1.38%	+2.38%	-13.1%
NZD/USD	0.6430	0.6532	0.6430	0.6489	+0.57%	+2.51%	+3.65%	-16.7%
USD/JPY	119.97	120.55	119.85	120.45	+0.46%	+0.45%	+0.98%	+0.64%

Key Takeaways

• The AUD/SGD pair has shown strong bullish momentum, with a clear break of the 1.0185 target and potential to reach 1.0240.
• The USD/SGD pair is in a consolidation phase, with the range expected to stay between 1.4093 and 1.4240.
• EUR/SGD and GBP/SGD are expected to trade within a range due to consolidation and mixed market sentiment.
• JPY/SGD is likely to trade in a neutral range, with the key resistance at 1.1865 and support at 1.1780.
• USD/MYR and USD/THB are showing mixed performance, with potential pullbacks to key support levels.
• USD/CNH is in a consolidation phase with limited volatility expected.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in a mixed environment, with potential for further gains but strong resistance levels.
• NZD/USD shows strong upward momentum, with a target of 0.6600.

Conclusion

The report highlights the ongoing dynamics in the FX market, emphasizing the importance of central bank policies, economic data, and global events in shaping currency trends. Key support and resistance levels are identified for each pair, along with short-term and medium-term outlooks. The overall sentiment remains mixed, with some pairs showing strong bullish momentum and others in consolidation or correction phases.