20150910-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_949kb

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs and their market outlook for the week of September 10, 2015. The report covers short-term (24-hour) and medium-term (1-3 weeks) views, along with key indicators and data releases influencing the currency markets. The focus is on the USD and its relative performance against other major currencies such as SGD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, MYR, THB, CNH, and others. The central banks' policy decisions and economic indicators are also highlighted.

Key FX Pairs and Analysis

USD/SGD: 1.4190

• 24-Hour View: Traded in a lower range, rebounding from a low of 1.4113. Expected to trade between 0.5% and 1.0% below the midpoint.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade within a broad range. Strong support at 1.4110 and 1.4055, with resistance at 1.4250 and 1.4305.
• Indicators: SGD NEER is at 0.9% below the midpoint. Next MAS meeting is in October 2015.

EUR/SGD: 1.5935

• 24-Hour View: EUR rebounded strongly from 1.5730, suggesting a potential move higher.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade within a broad range. Strong support at 1.5850 and 1.5740, with resistance at 1.5950 and 1.6000.
• Indicators: Next ECB meeting is in October 2015.

GBP/SGD: 2.1815

• 24-Hour View: GBP traded sideways, with a positive outlook for a move to test 2.1890.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade choppily. Support at 2.1680 and 2.1590, resistance at 2.1860 and 2.1960.
• Indicators: Next BoE meeting is in September 2015.

AUD/SGD: 0.9890

• 24-Hour View: AUD reached a high of 0.9990 but then pulled back. Expected to trade between 0.9850 and 1.0030.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is in a consolidation phase. Support at 0.9850 and 0.9815, resistance at 1.0030 and 1.0110.
• Indicators: Next RBA meeting is in October 2015.

JPY/SGD: 1.1820

• 24-Hour View: JPY dipped below 1.1760 but rebounded strongly. Expected to trade between 1.1660 and 1.1900.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade in a volatile range. Support at 1.1660 and 1.1550, resistance at 1.1900 and 1.2000.
• Indicators: Next BOJ meeting is in September 2015.

USD/MYR: 4.3410

• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. The pair is expected to continue its upward trend, with a target at 4.4000. Support at 4.2900 and 4.2600, resistance at 4.3695 and 4.4000.
• Indicators: Malaysia's July industrial production data is expected to show a 5.0% y/y increase. Next BNM meeting is in September 2015.

USD/THB: 36.22

• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. The pair is expected to test 36.35. Support at 36.07 and 35.98, resistance at 36.35 and 36.50.
• Indicators: The pair is influenced by the Thai economy and central bank decisions. Next BOT meeting is in September 2015.

USD/CNH: 6.4655

• 24-Hour View: USD dipped to 6.4449 and rebounded. Expected to trade between 6.4600 and 6.4760.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair remains directionless. Support at 6.4380 and 6.4080, resistance at 6.4750 and 6.4950.
• Indicators: The PBOC set the CNY reference rate at 6.3772 against the USD. Next BOJ meeting is in September 2015.

EUR/USD: 1.1210

• 24-Hour View: EUR rebounded from 1.1130, with support at 1.1130 and resistance at 1.1255.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish. The outlook remains bearish unless EUR breaks above 1.1255.
• Indicators: Next ECB meeting is in October 2015.

GBP/USD: 1.5355

• 24-Hour View: GBP traded sideways, with support at 1.5270 and resistance at 1.5420.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to trade within a broad range. Support at 1.5270 and 1.5165, resistance at 1.5420 and 1.5510.
• Indicators: Next BoE meeting is in September 2015.

AUD/USD: 0.6965

• 24-Hour View: AUD touched a high of 0.7071 and then pulled back. Expected to trade between 0.6910 and 0.7070.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is in a consolidation phase. Support at 0.6910 and 0.6890, resistance at 0.7070 and 0.7120.
• Indicators: Next RBA meeting is in October 2015.

NZD/USD: 0.6265

• 24-Hour View: NZD edged above 0.6415 before plunging to 0.6257. Expected to trade between 0.6220 and 0.6310.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is expected to continue in a consolidation phase. Support at 0.6245 and 0.6200, resistance at 0.6310 and 0.6425.
• Indicators: The RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%. Next RBNZ meeting is in September 2015.

Key Economic Indicators and Data Releases

Currency Pair	Key Data	Release Date	Expected Impact
USD/SGD	SGD NEER	October 2015	Influence on USD/SGD range
EUR/SGD	ECB Policy	October 2015	Potential shift in EUR direction
GBP/SGD	BoE Policy	September 2015	Possible rate hike impact
AUD/SGD	RBA Policy	October 2015	Influence on AUD/USD outlook
JPY/SGD	BOJ Policy	September 2015	Impact on JPY/USD and JPY/SGD
USD/MYR	Malaysia Industrial Production	September 2015	Expected to show 5.0% y/y growth
USD/THB	Thai Trade Balance	September 2015	Influence on THB's weakness
USD/CNH	PBOC Policy	September 2015	Currency management and inflation concerns
EUR/USD	ECB Policy	October 2015	Potential shift in EUR/USD direction
GBP/USD	BoE Policy	September 2015	Rate hike expectations
AUD/USD	RBA Policy	October 2015	Influence on AUD/USD outlook
NZD/USD	RBNZ Policy	September 2015	Continued easing expected

UOB FX and Interest Rate Forecasts

Currency Pair	3Q15 Forecast	4Q15 Forecast	1Q16 Forecast	2Q16 Forecast
EUR/USD	1.09	1.10	1.12	1.12
GBP/USD	1.60	1.62	1.64	1.67
AUD/USD	0.71	0.70	0.70	0.70
NZD/USD	0.66	0.64	0.63	0.62
USD/JPY	126	127	129	130
USD/SGD	1.45	1.43	1.45	1.46
USD/MYR	4.26	4.20	4.18	4.15
USD/THB	35.5	35.5	35.8	36.0
USD/CNH	6.45	6.50	6.55	6.60

Summary of Key Views

• USD: Early signs of forming a base for a recovery, with resistance at 121.75. A clear break above this level would signal a significant low.
• SGD: Neutral outlook with consolidation expected. Support at 1.4110 and 1.4055, resistance at 1.4250 and 1.4305.
• EUR: Neutral outlook with potential for a break above 1.6000 to signal a bullish trend.
• GBP: Neutral outlook with consolidation expected. Support at 1.5270 and 1.5165, resistance at 1.5420 and 1.5510.
• AUD: Neutral outlook with consolidation expected. Support at 0.6910 and 0.6890, resistance at 0.7070 and 0.7120.
• JPY: Neutral outlook with volatile trading. Support at 1.1660 and 1.1550, resistance at 1.1900 and 1.2000.
• MYR: Bullish outlook with support at 4.2900 and 4.2600, resistance at 4.3695 and 4.4000.
• THB: Bullish outlook with support at 36.07 and 35.98, resistance at 36.35 and 36.50.
• CNH: Neutral outlook with no clear direction. Support at 6.4380 and 6.4080, resistance at 6.4750 and 6.4950.

Conclusion

The report outlines a mix of neutral and bullish outlooks for various FX pairs, with USD showing early signs of forming a base for a recovery. The key levels for each pair are identified, along with potential support and resistance. Economic indicators and central bank decisions are expected to influence the near-term trends, with a focus on the US, EU, UK, and Asian economies. The UOB forecasts suggest a cautious approach, with most pairs expected to trade within a broad range or consolidate before a potential directional move.