20150916-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_956kb

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of various currency pairs and their expected movements based on recent market data, economic indicators, and central bank policies. It includes both short-term (24-hour) and medium-term (1-3 weeks) outlooks for different forex pairs, along with key economic data and forecasts from UOB.

Main Currency Pairs Analysis

GBP/SGD: 2.1520

• 24-Hour View: GBP weakened significantly, breaking below key support levels. It is expected to move lower to 2.1450 before a potential rebound. Strong resistance is at 2.1620.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish outlook with a target to move to 2.1380. A break below this level could shift focus to 2.1180.
• Key Data: GBP/SGD broke 2.1590 support and moved below the late August low of 2.1510. Downward momentum is improving.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 2.1380, S2: 2.1180; R1: 2.1620, R2: 2.1705.

USD/SGD: 1.4020

• 24-Hour View: USD/SGD is expected to trade within a range of 1.4019 - 1.4090. Downward pressure remains.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, targeting a move to 1.3935/40. A break below could lead to 1.3890.
• Key Data: Singapore's retail sales for July rose 5.2% y/y, but this was driven by motor vehicle sales. Other retail segments remained weak.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 1.3985, S2: 1.3940; R1: 1.4065, R2: 1.4125.

EUR/SGD: 1.5810

• 24-Hour View: EUR/SGD moved below key support at 1.5840. Downward momentum may continue to 1.5730.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral outlook. A clear break below 1.5730 would signal a potential move to 1.5670.
• Key Data: EUR/SGD showed a weak daily closing, indicating continued downside pressure.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 1.5730, S2: 1.5670; R1: 1.5935, R2: 1.6050.

AUD/SGD: 0.9990

• 24-Hour View: AUD is expected to trade within a range of 0.9955 to 1.0040.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, likely in a consolidation phase. A move above 1.0110 could indicate a short-term reversal.
• Key Data: AUD has been in a consolidation phase, with mixed indicators.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 0.9930, S2: 0.9870; R1: 1.0065, R2: 1.0110.

JPY/SGD: 1.1645

• 24-Hour View: JPY/SGD experienced a sharp drop and is expected to retest the 1.1590 low.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, further choppy trading is likely. A move above 1.1750 would suggest a temporary low.
• Key Data: JPY has been trading in a choppy manner, with downward momentum increasing.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 1.1590, S2: 1.1520; R1: 1.1685, R2: 1.1750.

USD/MYR: 4.3020

• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target to move to 4.4000 or 4.3500. A pull-back is expected to test 4.2800 or 4.2700.
• Key Data: Malaysian markets are closed for a holiday today.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 4.2800, S2: 4.2700; R1: 4.3500, R2: 4.3750.

USD/THB: 35.92

• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a possible extension of the pull-back to 35.83. A move above 36.08 would indicate a short-term low.
• Key Data: Thailand's monetary policy meeting is a focus today. The BoT is expected to keep rates unchanged.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 35.95, S2: 35.85; R1: 36.16, R2: 36.26.

USD/CNH: 6.4060

• 24-Hour View: USD/CNH is expected to trade between 6.3990 and 6.4160. Range trading is anticipated.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a possible move lower to 6.3500. A break below is unlikely.
• Key Data: RMB remained stable despite FX sales data and a potential default risk.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 6.3790, S2: 6.3500; R1: 6.4300, R2: 6.4760.

EUR/USD: 1.1270

• 24-Hour View: EUR/USD traded close to expectations. A retest of Monday's high near 1.1370/75 is expected.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 1.1475. A break below 1.1255 would risk a downward move.
• Key Data: ZEW survey showed nervousness in the euro area. CPI data will be released later today.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 1.1255, S2: 1.1160; R1: 1.1380, R2: 1.1475.

GBP/USD: 1.5345

• 24-Hour View: GBP/USD dropped sharply from 1.5456, suggesting a potential move to 1.5300. A rebound above 1.5385 would stabilize the pair.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, moving into a consolidation phase with support at 1.5250.
• Key Data: UK inflation fell to zero in August, and wage growth is expected to rise to 2.5%.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 1.5300, S2: 1.5250; R1: 1.5450, R2: 1.5510.

AUD/USD: 0.7130

• 24-Hour View: AUD is expected to trade within a range of 0.7085 to 0.7165.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 0.7205. A move below 0.7035 would indicate a potential shift in trend.
• Key Data: RBA minutes showed no changes to the current policy stance.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 0.7110, S2: 0.7035; R1: 0.7205, R2: 0.7280.

NZD/USD: 0.6350

• 24-Hour View: NZD traded at a wider range, with a potential move to 0.6380/85. Support at 0.6320 is expected.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with further choppy trading likely between 0.6245 and 0.6425.
• Key Data: NZD was supported by rising dairy prices, but the current account deficit may temper momentum.
• Support/Resistance: S1: 0.6245, S2: 0.6200; R1: 0.6350, R2: 0.6425.

Key Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies

• US Data: US retail sales improved, pushing the 10-year yield above 2.20%. The 2-year yield increased by 7bps to 0.80%. The 2Yr/10Yr spread steepened to 149bps.
• US CPI: Expected to show a -0.1% m/m and 0.1% ex food and energy y/y.
• FOMC Meeting: Scheduled for 17-Sep-15.
• UOB FX Forecast:
  • USD/SGD: end 3Q15:1.45, end 4Q15:1.43, end 1Q16:1.45, end 2Q16:1.46.
  • USD/MYR: end 3Q15:4.26, end 4Q15:4.20, end 1Q16:4.18, end 2Q16:4.15.
  • USD/THB: end 3Q15:35.5, end 4Q15:35.5, end 1Q16:35.8, end 2Q16:36.0.
  • USD/CNH: end 3Q15:6.45, end 4Q15:6.50, end 1Q16:6.55, end 2Q16:6.60.
  • EUR/USD: end 3Q15:1.09, end 4Q15:1.10, end 1Q16:1.12, end 2Q16:1.12.
  • GBP/USD: end 3Q15:1.60, end 4Q15:1.62, end 1Q16:1.64, end 2Q16:1.67.
  • AUD/USD: end 3Q15:0.71, end 4Q15:0.70, end 1Q16:0.70, end 2Q16:0.70.
  • NZD/USD: end 3Q15:0.66, end 4Q15:0.64, end 1Q16:0.63, end 2Q16:0.62.
  • USD/JPY: end 3Q15:126, end 4Q15:127, end 1Q16:129, end 2Q16:130.

Summary of Performance (15-Sep-15)