20151006-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_948kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary - 06 October 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs and their short and medium-term outlooks. The focus is on the U.S. dollar and its performance against several major currencies, including SGD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, MYR, THB, CNH, and JPY. The analysis includes price movements, technical levels, and market indicators, with the UOB Group offering their forecasts and expectations for the upcoming quarters.

Main FX Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD: 1.4205

24-Hour View: USD reversed sharply after a short-term top at 1.4366, with a corrective pull-back expected to extend to 1.4095. Oversold conditions suggest a limited decline.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a consolidation phase expected. USD/SGD is likely to trade between 1.4129 and 1.4272.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.4160, 1.4095
- Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4330

EUR/SGD: 1.5900

24-Hour View: EUR/SGD experienced a deeper-than-expected pull-back, but a sustained move below 1.5815/20 is not expected. A move above 1.5970 would signal eased downward pressure.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with volatile trading expected. Key support at 1.5670, strong resistance at 1.6105.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.5815, 1.5670
- Resistance: 1.5970, 1.6105

GBP/SGD: 2.1525

24-Hour View: GBP fell sharply after a peak at 2.1865, with further downward pressure expected. A break below 2.1420 could signal a sustained down-move.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with another leg higher to 1.5310 not ruled out. Downward momentum is improving.
Key Levels:
- Support: 2.1430, 2.1380
- Resistance: 2.1620, 2.1760

AUD/SGD: 1.0070

24-Hour View: AUD/SGD tested resistance at 1.0140 but reversed, indicating a consolidation phase. A move back below 0.9990 would suggest a short-term top.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 1.0185. Consolidation is expected, and a move above 1.0135 could signal the start of a bullish phase.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.0025, 0.9990
- Resistance: 1.0135, 1.0185

JPY/SGD: 1.1800

24-Hour View: JPY dropped sharply, testing support at 1.1745/50, but further weakness is unlikely due to oversold conditions. A move above 1.1940 would alleviate downward pressure.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with the bullish phase ending abruptly. Further volatile trading is expected.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.1740, 1.1700
- Resistance: 1.1850, 1.1940

USD/MYR: 4.4030

1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a pull-back expected to extend to 4.3100. A break above 4.4500 would indicate a resumption of the longer-term bullish USD trend.
Key Levels:
- Support: 4.3500, 4.3100
- Resistance: 4.4100, 4.4500

USD/THB: 36.33

1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a pull-back expected to extend to 36.10. A move above 36.60 would indicate a low is in place.
Key Levels:
- Support: 36.25, 36.10
- Resistance: 36.47, 36.60

USD/CNH: 6.3500

24-Hour View: USD/CNH tested support at 6.3450 but held. A move back above 6.3580 would indicate a short-term low.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with consolidation in the early stages. Strong support at 6.3300 and resistance at 6.3880.
Key Levels:
- Support: 6.3450, 6.3335
- Resistance: 6.3670, 6.3880

EUR/USD: 1.1190

24-Hour View: EUR/USD tested resistance near 1.1280 and fell sharply. A move below 1.1145/50 is unlikely.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with choppy trading expected between 1.1115 and 1.1330.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.1160, 1.1115
- Resistance: 1.1290, 1.1330

GBP/USD: 1.5150

24-Hour View: GBP/USD fell sharply after a peak at 1.5245. A move below 1.5090 could signal a sustained bearish phase.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with another leg higher to 1.5310 possible. A clear break above 1.5190 would indicate eased downward pressure.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.5130, 1.5090
- Resistance: 1.5245, 1.5310

AUD/USD: 0.7085

24-Hour View: AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.7100 and reversed. A move back below 0.7050 would suggest a short-term top.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with upward momentum improving. A clear break above 0.7130 would signal the start of a bullish phase.
Key Levels:
- Support: 0.7050, 0.7000
- Resistance: 0.7130, 0.7160

NZD/USD: 0.6490

24-Hour View: NZD/USD moved higher than expected, breaking above 0.6480. A pull-back is expected to consolidate below 0.6530/35.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 0.6560. Stop-loss moved to 0.6405.
Key Levels:
- Support: 0.6450, 0.6405
- Resistance: 0.6535, 0.6560

USD/JPY: 120.45

24-Hour View: USD/JPY moved higher, with a dip expected to 120.20. 119.85 is expected to hold for a move to 120.65/70.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a consolidation phase expected. Key levels between 118.65 and 121.30.
Key Levels:
- Support: 119.85, 119.50
- Resistance: 120.70, 121.30

Key Market Indicators and Data

U.S. Dollar Index

Increased by 0.15% to 96.062.
Risk-on environment favored AUD, NZD, and USD, while JPY, EUR, and CHF declined.

U.S. Economic Indicators

Nonfarm Payrolls: Dismal print on Friday led to reduced dollar longs.
GDP QoQ: 1.8% in 2Q15, with a slowdown in September.
PCE Price Index YoY: 1.3% in 2Q15, with expectations for further stability.
Unemployment: 5.1% in Aug, with no significant change.
Retail Sales: 0.7% in Jul, 0.6% in Jul (ex-autos).
Durable Goods: 1.9% in Jul, with a slowdown in August.
Federal Funds Rate: 0.0-0.0%, with next FOMC meeting on 28-Oct-15.
UOB Fed Funds Rate Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 0.50%
- End 1Q16: 0.75%
- End 2Q16: 1.00%
- End 3Q16: 1.25%

Other Currency Indicators

SGD

MAS Policy Outlook: Expected policy easing next week.
S$NEER Index: Recovered to -1.1% below midpoint.
UOB SGD Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 1.43
- End 1Q16: 1.45
- End 2Q16: 1.46
- End 3Q16: 1.44

MYR

BNM Policy Outlook: Next meeting on 05-Nov-15.
UOB MYR Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 4.40
- End 1Q16: 4.18
- End 2Q16: 4.15
- End 3Q16: 4.06

THB

BOT Policy Outlook: Next meeting on 04-Nov-15.
UOB THB Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 35.5
- End 1Q16: 35.8
- End 2Q16: 36.0
- End 3Q16: 36.0

CNH

UOB CNH Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 6.50
- End 1Q16: 6.55
- End 2Q16: 6.60
- End 3Q16: 6.58

EUR

ECB Policy Outlook: Next meeting on 22-Oct-15.
UOB EUR Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 1.12
- End 1Q16: 1.13
- End 2Q16: 1.13
- End 3Q16: 1.14

GBP

BOE Policy Outlook: Next meeting on 08-Oct-15.
UOB GBP Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 1.58
- End 1Q16: 1.60
- End 2Q16: 1.61
- End 3Q16: 1.62

AUD

RBA Policy Outlook: Next meeting on 06-Oct-15.
UOB AUD Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 0.71
- End 1Q16: 0.71
- End 2Q16: 0.70
- End 3Q16: 0.69

NZD

RBNZ Policy Outlook: Next meeting on 30-Oct-15.
UOB NZD Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 0.62
- End 1Q16: 0.61
- End 2Q16: 0.60
- End 3Q16: 0.60

JPY

BOJ Policy Outlook: Begins 2-day meeting on 07-Oct-15.
UOB JPY Forecast:
- End 4Q15: 1.50%
- End 1Q16: 1.50%
- End 2Q16: 1.50%
- End 3Q16: 1.50%

Summary of FX and Rates Outlook

FX Pair	4Q15	1Q16	2Q16	3Q16	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.12	1.13	1.13	1.14	EU: 0.05%
GBP/USD	1.58	1.60	1.61	1.62	UK: 0.5%
AUD/USD	0.71	0.71	0.70	0.69	AU: 2.00%
NZD/USD	0.62	0.61	0.60	0.60	NZ: 2.50%
USD/JPY	124	126	127	128	JP: 0.1%
USD/SGD	1.43	1.45	1.46	1.44	SG: 1.15%
USD/MYR	4.40	4.18	4.15	4.06	MY: 3.25%
USD/THB	35.5	35.8	36.0	36.0	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNH	6.50	6.55	6.60	6.58	CN: 4.35%

Key Takeaways

The U.S. dollar faced pressure from a weak nonfarm payrolls report, leading to corrections in several currency pairs.
Market sentiment was risk-on, favoring AUD, NZD, and USD while negatively impacting JPY, EUR, and GBP.
Short-term pull-backs are viewed as corrections rather than bearish reversals.
Support and resistance levels are key in determining future direction.
UOB forecasts suggest a mix of neutral and bullish outlooks for different currency pairs.
Policy expectations and economic data play a critical role in shaping the FX outlook.

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