20150930-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_960kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (30 September 2015)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs and global economic indicators as of 30 September 2015. It includes insights on short-term and 1-3 weeks outlook, key support and resistance levels, and market reactions to recent data and events.

Main FX Pairs and Outlook

USD/SGD: 1.4275

24-Hour View: Volatile session with a rebound to 1.4279, suggesting consolidation. Expected to trade within a range of 1.4200-1.4350.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a potential move higher to 1.4360. Stop-loss at 1.4205.
Support Levels: 1.4250, 1.4205
Resistance Levels: 1.4330, 1.4360

EUR/SGD: 1.6065

24-Hour View: Consolidation phase with a likely range of 1.6020/1.6130.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 1.6230. Stop-loss at 1.5950.
Support Levels: 1.6000, 1.5950
Resistance Levels: 1.6145, 1.6230

GBP/SGD: 2.1635

24-Hour View: Short-term downward momentum is picking up, but support near 2.1540 is expected to hold.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a potential move back above 2.1750 to signal easing pressure.
Support Levels: 2.1600, 2.1540
Resistance Levels: 2.1750, 2.1820

AUD/SGD: 1.0000

24-Hour View: Short-term consolidation, with a likely range of 0.9930-1.0040.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a potential range of 0.9900-1.0110.
Support Levels: 0.9930, 0.9900
Resistance Levels: 1.0040, 1.0110

JPY/SGD: 1.1910

24-Hour View: Sidewalk trading expected, with a likely range of 1.1850-1.1950.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 1.2060. Stop-loss at 1.1810.
Support Levels: 1.1895, 1.1810
Resistance Levels: 1.1980, 1.2060

USD/MYR: 4.4450

24-Hour View: Sharp drop from high suggests a corrective pull-back, but the stop-loss at 4.3840 is still intact.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 4.5000. Stop-loss at 4.3840.
Support Levels: 4.4200, 4.3840
Resistance Levels: 4.4770, 4.5000

USD/THB: 36.40

24-Hour View: Consolidation phase, with a likely range of 36.32-36.52.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target of 36.60. Stop-loss at 36.25.
Support Levels: 36.32, 36.25
Resistance Levels: 36.52, 36.60

USD/CNH: 6.3460

24-Hour View: A sharp drop to 6.3335, with a likely move lower to 6.3300.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target of 6.3100. Stop-loss at 6.3750.
Support Levels: 6.3300, 6.3100
Resistance Levels: 6.3610, 6.3750

Key Economic Indicators and Data

USD/SGD

Next MAS Meeting: 05-Nov-15
GDP YoY: +2.8% in 1Q15, +1.8% in 2Q15
CPI YoY: -0.4% in Jul, -0.8% in Aug
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.43, end 1Q16: 1.45, end 2Q16: 1.46, end 3Q16: 1.44
UOB 3M SIBOR Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.15%, end 1Q16: 1.20%, end 2Q16: 1.25%, end 3Q16: 1.35%

EUR/USD

24-Hour View: Neutral, with a potential move to 1.1330.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a bias on the upside.
Next ECB Meeting: 22-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.5% in 1Q15, +0.4% in 2Q15
CPI YoY: +0.1% in Jul, +1.0% in Jul
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.12, end 1Q16: 1.13, end 2Q16: 1.13, end 3Q16: 1.14
UOB Refinancing Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.05%, end 1Q16: 0.05%, end 2Q16: 0.05%, end 3Q16: 0.05%

GBP/USD

24-Hour View: Bearish phase nearing completion, with a target of 1.5090.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a potential move to 1.58 by end of 4Q15.
Next BOE Meeting: 08-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.4% in 1Q15, +0.7% in 2Q15
CPI YoY: +0.1% in Jul, +1.0% in Jul
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 1.58, end 1Q16: 1.60, end 2Q16: 1.61, end 3Q16: 1.62
UOB Bank Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.5%, end 1Q16: 0.75%, end 2Q16: 0.75%, end 3Q16: 0.75%

AUD/USD

24-Hour View: Consolidation, with a potential dip to 0.6970.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target of 0.6895.
Next RBA Meeting: 06-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.9% in 1Q15, +0.2% in 2Q15
CPI YoY: +1.3% in 1Q15, +1.5% in 2Q15
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.71, end 1Q16: 0.71, end 2Q16: 0.70, end 3Q16: 0.69
UOB Cash Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 2.00%, end 1Q16: 2.00%, end 2Q16: 2.00%, end 3Q16: 2.00%

NZD/USD

24-Hour View: Consolidation phase, with a potential dip to 0.6320.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a target of 0.6410 for a bullish phase.
Next RBNZ Meeting: 30-Oct-15
GDP QoQ: +0.2% in 1Q15, +0.4% in 2Q15
CPI YoY: +0.0% in Jul, -0.1% in Aug
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.62, end 1Q16: 0.61, end 2Q16: 0.60, end 3Q16: 0.60
UOB Official Cash Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 2.50%, end 1Q16: 2.50%, end 2Q16: 2.50%, end 3Q16: 2.50%

USD/JPY

24-Hour View: Sidewalk trading, with a likely range of 119.50-120.40.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a need for a break of 119.00 or 121.30 to signal a directional move.
Next BOJ Meeting: 07-Oct-15
GDP QoQ Annualized: +4.5% in 1Q15, -1.2% in 2Q15
CPI Core YoY: +0.0% in Jul, -0.1% in Aug
UOB FX Forecast: end 4Q15: 124, end 1Q16: 126, end 2Q16: 127, end 3Q16: 128
UOB Overnight Call Rate Forecast: end 4Q15: 0.0-0.1%, end 1Q16: 0.0-0.1%, end 2Q16: 0.0-0.1%, end 3Q16: 0.0-0.1%

Summary of Key Market Events

US Equities: Mixed session, with a slight flattening of the yield curve.
Commodities: WTI and Brent crude both gained about 1.8%, while gold eased slightly.
Platinum: Fell below $900/oz but later recovered due to bargain-hunting.
Fed Speak: Key speakers include Yellen, Bullard, Brainard, and Dudley.
ADP Employment Report: Expected to show a rise of 190k.
Chicago PMI: Expected to fall to 53.0 from 54.4.
ISM Manufacturing Index: To be released on Thursday.
MBA Mortgage Applications: To be released on 25 September.
ISM Milwaukee Index: To be released on 25 September.
Global Risk Aversion: Influenced SGD's volatility.
CNH Intervention: Speculation led to a sharp rebound in USD/CNH.
China's Golden Week: Expected to influence manufacturing PMI reports.
Malaysia's MGS Maturity: Closely watched for impact on MYR.
1MDB Clarification: No contact with foreign investigators.
Thailand's Manufacturing PMI: Expected to decline by -7.1% y/y.
Thailand's External Trade Report: Expected to show weak performance.
Euro Area Inflation: Mixed signals, with Germany and Spain reporting lower than expected.
Japan's Industrial Output: Continued weakness, with a -0.5% m/m drop in August.
Retail Sales: Weak in the US and Japan, suggesting slower economic growth.

Summary of FX Outlook and Rate Forecasts

FX Pair	4Q15	1Q16	2Q16	3Q16	Rate Outlook	4Q15	1Q16	2Q16	3Q16
EUR/USD	1.12	1.13	1.13	1.14	EU	0.05%	0.05%	0.05%	0.05%
GBP/USD	1.58	1.60	1.61	1.62	UK	0.5%	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
AUD/USD	0.71	0.71	0.70	0.69	AU	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%
NZD/USD	0.62	0.61	0.60	0.60	NZ	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
USD/JPY	124	126	127	128	JP	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
USD/SGD	1.43	1.45	1.46	1.44	SG	1.15%	1.20%	1.25%	1.35%
USD/MYR	4.40	4.18	4.15	4.06	MY	3.25%	3.25%	3.25%	3.25%
USD/THB	35.5	35.8	36.0	36.0	TH	1.50%	1.50%	1.50%	1.50%
USD/CNY	6.50	6.55	6.60	6.58	CN	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%

Summary of Key Market Performance (29-Sep-15)

FX Pair	Open	High	Low	Close	1-day	1-week	1-month	YTD
USD/SGD	1.4289	1.4335	1.4270	1.4282	-0.03%	+0.81%	+1.16%	+7.70%
EUR/SGD	1.6052	1.6145	1.5990	1.6054	+0.01%	+1.98%	+1.48%	+0.13%
GBP/SGD	2.1660	2.1737	2.1593	2.1625	-0.16%	-0.59%	-0.10%	+4.77%
AUD/SGD	0.9977	1.0023	0.9910	0.9968	-0.10%	-0.68%	-0.63%	-7.92%
JPY/SGD	1.1903	1.1997	1.1877	1.1921	+0.15%	+1.17%	+2.43%	+7.66%
USD/MYR	4.4300	4.4770	4.4300	4.4560	+0.70%	+3.77%	+6.29%	+27.4%
USD/THB	36.35	36.50	36.33	36.41	+0.16%	+0.97%	+1.64%	+10.6%
USD/CNH	6.3589	6.3775	6.3335	6.3435	-0.22%	-1.16%	-1.52%	+2.03%
EUR/USD	1.1243	1.1281	1.1192	1.1245	+0.01%	+1.14%	+0.30%	-7.04%
GBP/USD	1.5177	1.5205	1.5128	1.5151	-0.17%	-1.39%	-1.26%	-2.72%
AUD/USD	0.6990	0.7025	0.6934	0.6983	-0.08%	-1.50%	-1.85%	-14.4%
NZD/USD	0.6327	0.6393	0.6289	0.6348	+0.28%	+0.92%	+0.12%	-18.5%
USD/JPY	119.91	120.15	119.22	119.71	-0.16%	-0.34%	-1.24%	+0.02%

Summary of Key Events and Market Reactions

Fed Policy: Mixed data and Fed officials' comments influenced the greenback.
Global Risk Aversion: Pressured SGD and JPY, but SGD showed signs of stabilization.
Volkswagen Emissions Scandal: Affecting platinum prices, but later reversed due to investor activity.
Malaysia's 1MDB: Clarified no foreign investigations, easing some concerns.
Thailand's Economic Outlook: Optimistic due to infrastructure and reform efforts.
Japan's Economic Data: Weak industrial output and retail sales raised concerns about a potential recession.
CNH Intervention: Caused a sharp rebound in USD/CNH and narrowed the USD/CNY spread.

Summary of Key Market Conditions

USD: Mixed performance, with a consolidation phase and potential for further gains.
SGD: Bullish outlook with consolidation and a range of 1.4200-1.4350.
EUR: Neutral with a potential move to 1.1330.
GBP: Bearish phase nearing completion with a target of 1.5090.
AUD: Bearish with a target of 0.6895.
JPY: Bullish with a target of 1.2060.
MYR: Bullish with a target of 4.5000.
THB: Bullish with a target of 36.60.
CNH: Bearish with a target of 6.3100.
CNY: Expected to remain stable with a forecast of 6.50-6.58.

Summary of Key Indicators and Data

Fed Funds Rate: 0.0-0.25%, with no change in recent months.
GDP QoQ: Mixed results across different regions.
CPI YoY: Varying rates, with some countries showing deflationary pressures.
Unemployment: Mixed data, with some regions showing improvement.
Retail Sales: Mixed performance, with some underperforming expectations.
Industrial Production: Mixed results, with some regions showing contraction.