期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2010number4_40页_2mb

NBER Environmental and Energy Economics Program Summary

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Program on Environmental and Energy Economics (EEE) focuses on the economic implications of environmental and energy policies. Since its inception in 2007, the program has grown significantly, with 80 members and 240 working papers. The research covers a wide range of topics, including pollution abatement technology, the role of pollution havens, regulated electricity markets, and the effects of environmental policy on employment, health, and trade.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Gasoline Use and Vehicle Emissions

• Impact of Gasoline Prices: Studies show that increases in gasoline prices significantly affect both new and used car markets. A $1 increase in gas prices leads to over 20% changes in new car sales at the high and low ends of fuel efficiency and can reduce used car resale prices by up to $3,000.
• Fuel Economy Improvements: A 10% increase in gas prices from $2.34 per gallon in 2005 leads to only 0.22% short-run and 2% long-run improvements in fuel economy.
• Policy Effectiveness: Direct mandates on fuel efficiency have been more successful than gasoline taxes in reducing emissions. However, recent mandates raise questions about technological feasibility.
• Technological Progress: If technological progress since 1980 had been directed toward fuel economy instead of weight and power, it could have reduced U.S. fuel use by 50%.
• Ethanol Mandates: Ethanol production mandates increase global food prices by 20-30% due to the consumption of 5% of world caloric production from corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans.
• International Trade Effects: U.S. vehicle policies influence the Mexican vehicle fleet, altering gasoline use in both countries.

2. Energy Markets

• Market Failures: Energy markets often fail to reflect marginal cost pricing, especially in natural gas and electricity. Residential and commercial gas customers face an average markup of over 40%.
• Electricity Pricing: U.S. manufacturing plants pay highly variable electricity prices, with marginal supply costs exceeding marginal prices for smaller customers by 10% or more.
• Energy Efficiency Incentives: The Federal production tax credit has played a significant role in increasing wind energy investment.
• R&D and Innovation: Alternative energy R&D may crowd out other types of innovation, but these patents are cited more frequently and by a wider range of technologies, suggesting higher social value.
• Energy Efficiency Standards: Building codes in California and Florida have been shown to reduce residential electricity consumption effectively.

3. Economic Effects of Environmental Policy

• Employment and Productivity: Environmental policies can impact employment, productivity, and economic growth. For example, a 3% increase in electricity prices could lead to a 0.3% reduction in employment.
• Health Impacts: Climate change may increase mortality rates, particularly among infants. Improved traffic flow from toll collection reduces low birth weight incidence by over 10%.
• Cost Distribution: Policies may have regressive or progressive impacts, with some studies using CGE models to analyze how costs are distributed across regions, generations, and ethnic groups.
• Emissions Leakage: Cap-and-trade programs may lead to emissions leakage if not designed carefully. Permit allocations based on past production choices could mitigate this issue.

4. U.S. Climate Policy Design and Implementation

• Policy Choices: The U.S. House of Representatives passed climate legislation in 2009, making policy design a practical concern rather than just theoretical.
• Federal vs. State Policies: Federal policies interact with state and local regulations, with state-level mandates potentially reducing federal constraints.
• Carbon Tax vs. Cap-and-Trade: A carbon tax may avoid emissions leakage, while cap-and-trade policies require careful design to ensure competitiveness.
• Urban Policies: Zoning rules and urban density can influence carbon emissions and energy use.
• Climate Adaptation: Policies should also consider incentives for adaptation, as climate change affects demand for substitutes like water.
• Agricultural Impacts: Climate change may reduce agricultural yields, especially under current technologies, despite rising average yields.

Key Information

• Policy Instruments: Pollution taxes, cap-and-trade, and command-and-control mandates are all studied for their effectiveness and economic implications.
• Global Implications: U.S. policies can have significant effects on international markets, including trade in used vehicles and food prices.
• Technological and Market Barriers: These can lead to sub-optimal investment in energy efficiency and conservation, justifying more prescriptive policies.
• Distributional Effects: Environmental policies may have different impacts on various groups, including income levels, regions, and generations.
• Economic Modeling: Both partial equilibrium and general equilibrium models are used to assess the economic effects of environmental policies.

Conclusion

The EEE program provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic implications of environmental and energy policies, highlighting the need for careful design to balance effectiveness, cost, and distributional impacts. The research underscores the importance of considering both domestic and international consequences, technological progress, and market behaviors when implementing such policies.