2015年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_End_of_German_Hegemony_2页_531kb

The End of German Hegemony: A Summary

Core Content

Daniel Gros, Director of CEPS, argues that Germany's dominant position in the European Union (EU) and the eurozone is gradually diminishing, despite widespread perceptions of its continued strength. This shift is not immediately apparent but is likely to become more significant as the global economic environment changes and the internal balance of power in Europe evolves.

Main Points

• Shifting Economic Power:
  Germany's economic strength, which seemed unshakable after the 2008 financial crisis, is beginning to wane. While it outperformed other eurozone countries in the post-crisis period, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Germany's growth rate will fall below the average of France, Italy, and Spain within five years, and even further below the eurozone average, which includes high-growth countries from Central and Eastern Europe.

• Full Employment and Slow Productivity Growth:
  Germany's near-full employment is often seen as a strength, but it coexists with very slow productivity growth. This suggests a structural issue within the German economy, which is further compounded by an aging population and a lack of skilled refugees, limiting the labor force's ability to support sustained growth.

• Financial Reserves and Political Influence:
  Germany's large financial reserves helped it weather the financial crisis and gave it significant political leverage. It played a central role in bailing out the eurozone's periphery and was instrumental in shaping key policies such as the banking union and the ECB's bond-buying program. However, this influence is now waning as the financial storm subsides and interest rates remain near zero.

• Geopolitical Limitations:
  Although Germany has been a key player in regional diplomacy, such as the Minsk agreements on Ukraine, it has limited influence in the Middle East. Its role in the refugee crisis has also placed strain on the country, as it is forced to seek solidarity from its EU partners rather than acting unilaterally.

• Global Economic Shifts:
  Germany's growth was previously driven by investment demand from emerging economies, particularly China. As these economies shift focus from investment to consumption, Germany's export-driven model is under threat, which may benefit southern European countries that export more consumer goods.

Key Implications

• EU and Eurozone Dynamics:
  The decline of German economic dominance may lead to a less "Germanic" economic policy in the eurozone. This could reduce the pressure on other countries to adhere to strict fiscal rules and implement structural reforms, which may be seen as beneficial in the periphery but could provoke resistance in Germany.

• Perception vs. Reality:
  Despite the economic shift, public perception still views Germany as the eurozone's most powerful force. However, this perception may become outdated as the global business cycle brings Germany back to its "old normal" growth rate, making the power shift more visible.

• Future Challenges:
  Germany must now rely on EU solidarity to manage the refugee crisis and may struggle to maintain its political influence in the absence of new economic or geopolitical opportunities. This could lead to internal tensions within the EU, particularly as Germany's economic strength declines.

Conclusion

Gros concludes that the era of German hegemony in Europe is coming to an end. While Germany still holds considerable influence, the combination of slow productivity growth, demographic challenges, and changing global economic dynamics is reducing its economic and political dominance. This shift is likely to reshape the EU's future, with potential consequences for both the eurozone and Germany's role within it.