20140622-招商证券_香港_-2H14_China_Internet_sector_outlook_39页_2mb

报告摘要

2H14 China Internet Sector Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2H14 China Internet sector outlook discusses the current state of the industry, emphasizing that a new internet bubble is not yet formed. Unlike the 2000 dot-com bubble, which was driven by price divergence without fundamental support, the current sector growth is supported by mature business models and strong earnings. The report highlights two key investment themes: monetization and O2O (Online to Offline) integration.

Main Points

Investment Summary

Not a New Bubble: The current internet sector is not in a new bubble. Price increases are supported by strong earnings growth and mature business models.
Monetization Focus: Mobile internet monetization is a key driver, with a growing proportion of mobile revenue for China's internet companies.
O2O Integration: Integration of online and offline economy is the long-term development direction for internet companies, especially for those in traditional industries.

Key Investment Themes

Monetization:
- Mobile internet monetization is growing rapidly.
- Mobile games are the most stable and mature monetization method.
- Distribution channels are critical for monetization success, with China's third-party app market being highly concentrated.
- Super apps like MoMo, Changba, and Kingsoft Battery Doctor are becoming significant distribution channels.
O2O Integration:
- Online and offline integration is a major growth driver.
- Companies like WeChat, Alipay, and Uber are successful examples.
- Traditional industry companies that embrace mobile internet and O2O can develop new growth drivers.

Key Recommendations

Kingsoft (3888.HK): Buy with a target price of HK$37.05. The company has significant monetization potential through mobile products like Cheetah Mobile.
NetDragon (777.HK): Buy with a target price of HK$20.34. Focus on online education and mobile games, with growth driven by new products and M&A.
Wisdom (1661.HK): Buy with a target price of HK$7.00. Benefits from the fast-growing sport industry and strong policy support.
SinoMedia (623.HK): Buy with a target price of HK$8.07. Combines traditional industry expertise with internet technology to develop new growth drivers.

Sector Valuation Overview

Platform Sector

Name	Ticker	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (US$m)	FY13E PE	FY14E PE	FY15E PE	FY13E PB	FY14E PB	FY15E PB
Tencent	700 HK	116.4	140210	53.6	37.0	29.2	15.3	11.3	8.5
Kingsoft	3888 HK	23.85	3641	32.8	29.7	20.2	6.8	5.2	4.1
Qihoo 360	QIHU US	88.41	11133	61.5	36.0	23.1	17.0	11.3	7.5
Baidu	BIDU US	175.98	61665	35.0	32.2	22.9	10.2	7.6	5.7
YY	YY US	69.52	3873	46.1	29.7	21.0	13.0	9.0	6.2
Average				45.8	32.9	23.3	12.5	8.9	6.4

Online Game Sector

Name	Ticker	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (US$m)	FY13E PE	FY14E PE	FY15E PE	FY13E PB	FY14E PB	FY15E PB
NetDragon	777 HK	14.66	966	13.8	16.1	14.1	N/A	N/A	N/A
Foegame	484 HK	28.55	468	N/A	7.3	5.6	3.1	1.6	1.3
IGG	8002 HK	5.53	971	79.3	11.0	8.0	16.6	4.1	3.0
Boyaa	434 HK	8.68	828	24.8	23.2	17.1	4.0	3.6	3.0
Perfect World	PWRD US	18.12	898	10.5	9.0	7.4	1.2	1.1	1.0
Average				27.5	32.8	15.0	4.0	2.3	1.9

Portal Sector

Name	Ticker	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (US$m)	FY13E PE	FY14E PE	FY15E PE	FY13E PB	FY14E PB	FY15E PB
Pacific Online	543 HK	4.64	665	15.5	14.3	11.3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sina	SINA US	45.88	3057	40.8	57.4	27.7	2.0	2.0	1.9
Sohu	SOHU US	58.91	2267	42.4	N/A	N/A	1.9	2.0	2.0
Average				32.9	35.8	19.5	2.0	2.0	1.9

E-commerce Sector

Name	Ticker	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (US$m)	FY13E PE	FY14E PE	FY15E PE	FY13E PB	FY14E PB	FY15E PB
HC	8292 HK	19.44	1662	69.5	39.1	24.5	10.7	7.4	5.6
JD.com	JD US	27.17	33365	N/A	N/A	N/A	165.3	20.6	20.4
Lightin the Box	LITB US	5.23	266	87.2	N/A	N/A	1.0	N/A	N/A
DangDang	DANG US	11.33	912	N/A	50.6	16.2	10.3	9.4	6.7
Average				78.3	44.8	20.3	46.8	12.5	10.9

Online Video Sector

Name	Ticker	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (US$m)	FY13E PE	FY14E PE	FY15E PE	FY13E PB	FY14E PB	FY15E PB
Youku	YOKU US	21.55	3639	N/A	N/A	50.6	2.5	2.1	2.0
Ku6	KUTV	1.57	74	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Average				N/A	N/A	50.6	2.5	2.1	2.0

Mobile Internet Sector

Name	Ticker	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (US$m)	FY13E PE	FY14E PE	FY15E PE	FY13E PB	FY14E PB	FY15E PB
NQ Mobile	NQ US	7.74	478	7.4	6.3	4.6	1.4	1.3	1.1
Sungy Mobile	GOMO US	13.98	467	24.5	21.2	13.4	5.1	3.7	3.1
Cheetah Mobile	CMCM US	21.34	2986	151.3	124.8	29.5	99.7	21.8	11.9
Weibo	WB US	18.94	3791	N/A	N/A	60.5	N/A	18.1	13.2
Autonavi	AMAP US	20.88	1452	N/A	N/A	81.2	1.9	2.2	2.4
Average				61.1	50.8	37.8	27.0	9.4	6.3

Stock Recommendation Highlights

Kingsoft: High monetization potential through mobile products; target price based on DCF.
NetDragon: Focus on K12 education and mobile games; target price based on DCF.
Wisdom: Benefits from growing sport industry and policy support; target price based on DCF.
SinoMedia: Combines traditional industry knowledge with internet to develop new growth drivers; target price based on DCF.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the internet sector valuation remains high, it is supported by strong fundamentals. Investors should focus on companies with strong monetization potential and clear O2O strategies. Mobile internet is expected to continue its growth, with monetization and integration being key themes.

展开完整摘要