Thomson_Reuters-2017年Q4黄金行业调查与展望（英文）-2017-28页-6mb

GFMS Gold Survey 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The GFMS Gold Survey 2017 provides an in-depth analysis of global gold supply and demand dynamics, highlighting key trends in various regions and sectors. It also includes the contributions of major sponsors such as Tanaka Precious Metals, Valcambi Suisse, PAMP® and others. The report is produced by a team of analysts and researchers, including Rhona O'Connell, Cameron Alexander, Saida Litosh, and others, and outlines the global market outlook for 2018.

Key Sponsors

• Tanaka Precious Metals: Japan's leading precious metals refiner and manufacturer, known for high specification industrial products and gold bullion bars and coins.
• Valcambi Suisse: A leader in precious metals refining, operating one of the world's largest and most efficient integrated plants in Switzerland.
• PAMP®: A major sponsor and significant player in the gold market.
• The Perth Mint: Australia's official gold mint, known for its high-quality gold products.
• Italpreziosi SPA: A European precious metals refiner and trader.

Global Review and Outlook

• Gold prices fell to a near five-month low by mid-December 2017 due to the FOMC meeting and U.S. tax reform, but recovered in the second half of the month.
• Q4 2017 physical demand increased slightly compared to the previous quarter, but remained only marginally higher year-on-year.
• The physical surplus shrank to just three tonnes in Q4, driven by lower mine production and reduced hedging activity.
• Gold prices started 2018 on a strong note, with the U.S. dollar weakening and geopolitical tensions supporting gold as a risk hedge.
• The report forecasts gold prices to average $1,360/oz in 2018, with a potential peak over $1,500/oz later in the year.

Regional Analysis

China

• Gold demand from the jewellery sector fell by 2.1% in Q4 2017, with total fabrication volume at 615 tonnes, a 3.4% annual decline.
• Retail investment demand dropped by 11% year-on-year in Q4, mainly due to a sharp decrease in coin demand in the U.S.
• Gold bar demand also declined by 6% compared to Q4 2016, with Chinese imports from Hong Kong and Switzerland decreasing by 8.5% year-on-year.
• The yuan appreciated against the dollar by 6.3% in 2017, which affected the gold price and reduced the demand for gold.
• The report suggests that China's gold demand may have already peaked in 2013 and is unlikely to return to those levels in the future.

India

• Indian gold demand in Q4 2017 decreased by 9% year-on-year to 246.8 tonnes, but was the highest in four quarters.
• Gold imports fell by 8% to 216 tonnes in Q4, with investment demand dropping by 22% due to frantic buying in the same period last year.
• Jewellery consumption was down by 4%, but remained the highest for the year.
• The festive season demand, especially during Dhanteras, saw strong growth in the Southern and Western regions, contributing 65% to 70% of total Indian demand.
• The report notes that the full-year fabrication volume increased by 56%, while consumption increased by 32%.

United States

• Retail investment demand in the U.S. fell by 5 tonnes in Q4, indicating a reduced interest in gold ETFs.
• The U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies in late 2017, contributing to a recovery in gold prices.

Other Regions

• Asia: Total demand for gold in Q4 was 452.8 tonnes, a 5% decrease year-on-year.
• Europe: Total demand was 55.4 tonnes, a 3% increase year-on-year.
• Africa: Total demand was 5.6 tonnes, a 11% decrease year-on-year.
• South America: Total demand was 6.2 tonnes, a 20% increase year-on-year, driven mainly by Brazil.

Market Trends and Analysis

• Retail Investment: Slipped by 11% year-on-year in Q4, largely due to a sharp decline in coin demand in the Western hemisphere.
• Jewellery Fabrication: Increased by 3% in Q4 2017 compared to Q4 2016, with all major regions recording year-on-year gains.
• Physical Demand: Increased by 16% from the previous quarter, but remained slightly lower year-on-year.
• Gold Price: The annual average of gold premia in China was $9.8/oz in 2017, compared to $6.4/oz in 2016.
• Net Official Sector Purchases: Increased by 36% year-on-year in Q4, with Russia and Turkey being major contributors.

Outlook for 2018

• The report forecasts that gold prices will average $1,360/oz in 2018 and could reach a peak of over $1,500/oz.
• Indian demand is expected to remain at levels similar to 2017, while Chinese investment demand may pick up if gold prices continue to rise.
• The report notes that the global gold market may see further downward pressure in 2018 due to the shift in consumer preferences and economic conditions.

Key Insights

• Supply and Demand: The physical surplus in Q4 2017 was just three tonnes, indicating a tight market.
• Consumer Behavior: The shift from pure gold to non-pure gold items is evident, with non-pure gold pieces experiencing strong growth.
• Geopolitical Factors: The geopolitical climate and equity market trends are expected to support gold as a risk hedge.
• Market Dynamics: The shift in gold import channels, particularly to banks, has significantly impacted the market structure.