2017年Q4黄金行业调查与展望_28页-7mb

GFMS Gold Survey 2017 Summary

Core Content

The GFMS Gold Survey 2017 provides a comprehensive overview of global gold supply and demand, highlighting trends in physical and investment demand across key markets. The report is supported by major sponsors including TANAKA, Valcambi Suisse, PAMP® and others.

Main Points

Gold Market Overview

• Gold prices fell to a near five-month low by mid-December 2017, driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hikes and a strong dollar.
• Prices recovered in the second half of the month due to a weaker dollar, finishing the year on a positive note.
• Physical demand increased in Q4 2017, though the physical surplus shrank to just three tonnes.
• Net official sector purchases rose by 36% year-on-year, reaching 132 tonnes, marking the highest quarterly result since Q3 2015.
• Retail investment dropped by 11% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to reduced coin demand in the U.S.

Key Market Analysis

China

• Jewellery demand fell by 2.1% in Q4, with total fabrication volume down 3.4% from 2016.
• The pure gold segment continued to decline, while non-pure gold segments saw growth, especially in the fourth quarter.
• Gold imports from Hong Kong and Switzerland decreased by 8.5% year-on-year.
• Gold price in China averaged $9.8/oz in 2017, compared to $6.4/oz in 2016.
• The yuan appreciated by 6.3% in 2017, contrary to market expectations, which reduced the pressure on gold imports.

India

• Gold demand in Q4 2017 decreased by 9% year-on-year to 246.8 tonnes, but was the highest in four quarters.
• Jewellery consumption was down by 4%, yet remained the highest for the year.
• Investment demand fell by 22% year-on-year, primarily due to a surge in purchases in the same period in 2016 after demonetisation.
• Festive season demand held firm, with strong growth in Southern and Western regions during Dhanteras, but slowed in November before improving in December.
• Retailers increased their presence and formal transactions, contributing to a 56% rise in full-year fabrication.

United States

• Retail investment dropped by 5 tonnes in Q4, with net purchases for 2017 at 170 tonnes, still lower than 2016.
• Gold ETF holdings decreased by five tonnes in Q4, showing a lack of investor interest.

Global Supply and Demand

• Total supply for Q4 2017 was 1,096 tonnes, a 0.4% increase from Q4 2016.
• Mine production decreased slightly, while scrap volumes remained flat.
• Physical demand increased by 16% from the prior quarter, but was only slightly higher year-on-year.
• Physical surplus/deficit was 3 tonnes, a significant drop from previous quarters.

Key Information

Sponsors

• TANAKA Precious Metals
• Valcambi Suisse
• PAMP®
• Produits Artistiques Métal Precieux
• YLG Bullion
• The Perth Mint
• Italpreziosi SPA
• Istanbul Gold Refinery
• Foretell Business Solutions

Forecast for 2018

• Gold prices started 2018 on an upward trend, with an average expected at $1,360/oz and a potential peak over $1,500/oz.
• The geopolitical climate and equity market are expected to support gold as a risk hedge.
• If the gold price momentum continues, investment demand in China is likely to increase.
• Net producer hedging is a factor that may influence the physical market, with three expected Fed rate hikes in 2018.

Regional Highlights

• Europe saw a 3% increase in gold demand, with notable growth in the Russian Federation (20% YoY).
• North America recorded a 4% increase, driven by the U.S. and Canada.
• Asia had a slight decrease in total demand (-5% YoY), with India and China showing mixed trends.
• South America saw a 20% increase in demand, with Brazil contributing significantly.
• Africa recorded a 11% decrease in demand.

Table of Key Figures

Conclusion

The GFMS Gold Survey 2017 indicates a mixed performance in global gold markets, with notable declines in retail investment and jewellery demand in certain regions. However, the official sector showed strong demand, particularly from Russia and Turkey. The price dynamics in China and India were influenced by macroeconomic factors and consumer behavior, with a shift towards more fashionable, lower-purity gold products. The report forecasts a positive outlook for 2018, with gold prices expected to rise and investment demand likely to recover.