世界银行-欧洲和中亚经济更新，2023年春季：增长疲软、高通胀和生活成本危机（英）-2023.3-120页_5mb

Weak Growth, High Inflation, and a Cost-of-Living Crisis in Europe and Central Asia (ECA)

According to the World Bank's Economic Update for Spring 2023:

Overview of ECA Economy Performance

• Regional GDP growth slowed in 2022 to 1.2%, down from 7.1% in 2021, driven by weak private consumption and investment amid rising inflation and policy uncertainty.
• Inflation peaked at a record 15.9% (headline CPI) in late 2022, the highest since 1999, with core inflation remaining stubbornly high at 13.8%.
• Real GDP is projected to grow to 1.4% in 2023, still subdued due to ongoing monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions.

Key Drivers

• Energy crisis and supply chain disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine significantly impacted ECA, particularly in energy-importing countries.
• Pandemic-related recovery exhaustion slowed private consumption in many economies.
• Tightening global monetary policy to combat inflation further weighed on economic activity.

Cost-of-Living Crisis Impact

• High inflation disproportionately affects poorer households: In many ECA countries, the poorest faced inflation 2-5 percentage points higher than wealthier households in 2022.
• Households in the bottom decile faced cost-of-living increases significantly higher than those in better-off households.
• Real incomes contracted in several countries due to high inflation, eroding purchasing power.

Policy Implications

• Many ECA governments implemented large fiscal packages in 2022 to shield households from high energy and food prices, though some measures were regressive.
• Low-income households benefited from social assistance programs, but poverty reduction may stall due to inflation.
• Fiscal consolidation is a priority to rebuild buffers but may limit the space for further support.

Outlook

• Growth is expected to improve modestly in 2023-2024, but inflation will remain elevated.
• Medium-term growth projections face significant uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine, climate change, and aging populations.
• Dependency on fossil fuels remains a challenge for long-term sustainability.

Challenges

• Emerging markets face tightening financial conditions and reduced growth prospects due to global slowdown.
• Aging populations, significant institutional constraints (especially in post-transition countries), and energy insecurity are major long-term hurdles.
• The energy crisis has highlighted the need for reforms in energy systems to achieve climate goals while ensuring affordability.