20170807-穆迪服务-Non-Oil_Sector_Growth_Curbs_Saudi_Arabia_s_Credit_Risk_18页_465kb

Moody's Sector Analysis Summary - August 2017

Core Content Overview

This report from Moody's Analytics provides an analysis of sovereign credit risk and market signals for various countries. It focuses on the Sovereign EDF™ (Expected Default Frequency), CDS Implied-Rating, Bond Implied-Rating, and Senior Rating metrics for each country, along with changes over time.

Key Insights

Saudi Arabia

• Non-Oil Sector Growth: The non-oil sector's economic activity improved significantly, rising from 54.3 in June to 55.7 in July, indicating economic growth.
• Credit Risk: The five-year Sovereign EDF improved from 0.69% in January 2016 to 0.31% as of August 2017, showing a decline in credit risk.
• IMF Projections: The IMF reduced its 2017 growth forecast to 0.1%, down from previous estimates, but expects a rebound to 1.1% in 2018.
• Economic Diversification: The country launched a tourism project aimed at boosting the economy, creating 35,000 jobs and adding $4 billion annually.

Asia-Pacific Region

Australia

• EDF: Stable at 0.01% for both 1-year and 5-year metrics.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: Aaa.
• Change: No significant change over the 12-month period.

China

• EDF: Improved for both 1-year and 5-year metrics, down to 0.02% and 0.26% respectively.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Senior Rating: A1.
• Change: Slight improvement, with a 12-month change of -1bps for EDF and -3 for Bond Implied-Rating.

Hong Kong

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.03%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Not available.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Not available.
• Senior Rating: Aa2.
• Change: Senior Rating decreased by 1.

Indonesia

• EDF: Improved for both 1-year and 5-year metrics.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 12-month change of -2bps for EDF and -5bps for 5-year EDF.

Japan

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.07%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A1.
• Change: No significant change over the 12-month period.

Korea

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.21%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aa3.
• Senior Rating: Aa2.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 10bps.

Malaysia

• EDF: Improved for both 1-year and 5-year metrics.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 12-month change of -2bps for EDF and -7bps for 5-year EDF.

New Zealand

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.08%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Not available.
• Senior Rating: Aaa.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 0bps.

Philippines

• EDF: 1-year at 0.02%, 5-year at 0.29%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Bond Implied-Rating: A2.
• Senior Rating: Baa2.
• Change: 12-month change of 0bps for EDF and -1bps for Bond Implied-Rating.

India

• EDF: 1-year at 0.03%, 5-year at 0.35%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Not available.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 10bps.

Thailand

• EDF: 1-year at 0.02%, 5-year at 0.24%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Not available.
• Senior Rating: Baa1.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 1bps.

Vietnam

• EDF: 1-year at 0.06%, 5-year at 0.54%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Ba1.
• Senior Rating: B1.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 16bps.

Europe Region

Austria

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.07%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: Aa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 0bps.

Belgium

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.06%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Senior Rating: Aa2.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 5bps.

Bulgaria

• EDF: 1-year at 0.02%, 5-year at 0.41%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aa3.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 5bps.

Croatia

• EDF: 1-year at 0.03%, 5-year at 0.37%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 13bps.

Cyprus

• EDF: 1-year at 0.09%, 5-year at 0.33%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: B2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Senior Rating: B1.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 33bps.

Czech Republic

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.12%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 3bps.

Denmark

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.05%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: A3.
• Senior Rating: Aa1.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 1bps.

Estonia

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.18%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 3bps.

Finland

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.06%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: Aa1.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 1bps.

France

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.13%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: A1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 8bps.

Germany

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.04%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: Aaa.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 1bps.

Greece

• EDF: 1-year at 0.53%, 5-year at 2.57%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Caa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Senior Rating: Caa2.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 9bps.

Hungary

• EDF: 1-year at 0.02%, 5-year at 0.37%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 13bps.

Iceland

• EDF: 1-year at 0.02%, 5-year at 0.36%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Bond Implied-Rating: A3.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 9bps.

Ireland

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.13%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: A1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 8bps.

Italy

• EDF: 1-year at 0.05%, 5-year at 0.63%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Senior Rating: Baa2.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 13bps.

Latvia

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.18%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 3bps.

Lithuania

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.17%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 3bps.

Netherlands

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.07%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: Aaa.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 1bps.

Norway

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.04%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Not available.
• Senior Rating: Aaa.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 0bps.

Poland

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.20%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aa3.
• Senior Rating: A2.
• Change: 5-year EDF decreased by 6bps.

Portugal

• EDF: 1-year at 0.06%, 5-year at 0.73%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: B1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Senior Rating: Ba1.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 2bps.

Romania

• EDF: 1-year at 0.02%, 5-year at 0.40%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 6bps.

Russian Federation

• EDF: 1-year at 0.05%, 5-year at 0.68%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Ba3.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Baa3.
• Senior Rating: Ba1.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 19bps.

Slovakia

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.13%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: A1.
• Bond Implied-Rating: Aaa.
• Senior Rating: A2.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 5bps.

Slovenia

• EDF: 1-year at 0.01%, 5-year at 0.25%.
• CDS Implied-Rating: Baa2.
• Bond Implied-Rating: A3.
• Senior Rating: Baa3.
• Change: 5-year EDF increased by 0bps.