2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_2015_Article_IV_Consultation_Sixth_Review_under_the_Stand_127页_1mb

Summary of the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review for Tunisia

Core Content

The 2015 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Tunisia was completed by the IMF Executive Board on September 30, 2015. This review enabled the disbursement of SDR 214.875 million (about US $301.6 million), bringing total disbursements under the SBA to SDR 1 billion (about US $1.41 billion). The SBA, initially approved in June 2013 for SDR 1.146 billion (about US $1.61 billion), was extended by seven months to December 31, 2015, to allow for the implementation of structural reforms.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Resilience Amid Political and Security Challenges

• Tunisia's economy has shown resilience despite prolonged political transition and a deteriorating security environment.
• The country has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability despite challenges from regional turmoil and a difficult international economic climate.
• The 2015 terrorist attacks in Bardo and Sousse severely impacted tourism and investor confidence, worsening external and fiscal imbalances.

Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• The 2015 fiscal stance was appropriate to address the economic fallout from the attacks but a return to fiscal consolidation from 2016 is essential.
• The structural fiscal deficit was reduced to 3.3% of GDP in 2014, but public investment remained low at 4.2% of GDP, while the wage bill increased.
• The government is urged to improve budget composition through civil service reform, energy subsidy reform, and increased public investment.
• A new automatic fuel price formula is recommended to make energy subsidy reform sustainable.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• A prudent monetary policy has helped contain inflationary pressures and maintain positive real interest rates.
• Greater exchange rate flexibility is encouraged, supported by efforts to deepen the foreign exchange market.
• The central bank is advised to move towards a more independent framework and to adopt a clear legal mandate.

Banking Sector and Financial Reforms

• The banking system remains fragile, with a low capital adequacy ratio and high non-performing loans (15.8%).
• Recapitalization of all three public banks is critical to strengthen the financial sector.
• Modernizing the banking resolution and supervisory framework, as well as introducing an effective bankruptcy law, is necessary to improve regulatory compliance and manage non-performing loans.

Structural Reforms and Growth

• Structural reforms, particularly in the banking and fiscal sectors, are essential to achieve higher and more inclusive growth.
• The government is encouraged to accelerate reforms to improve the business climate, enhance competitiveness, and support private sector development.
• A more conducive regulatory environment, including the adoption of long-standing investment legislation, is needed to attract investment and reduce unemployment.

Program Implementation and Risks

• Progress on structural reforms has been slow, with only three out of seventeen benchmarks expected to be met by September 2015.
• The next and final review will focus on completing the unfinished agenda in banking and tax reform.
• Risks remain high, including increasing security threats, social tensions, and political challenges that may delay reform implementation and impact investor confidence.

Key Figures and Indicators

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended the Tunisian authorities for their efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability and implementing reforms. However, they emphasized the need for continued progress on structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, and improving the business environment to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth. The successful completion of the political transition was seen as a key opportunity to advance these reforms. The next Article IV consultation is expected to follow the established consultation cycle for members with Fund arrangements.