2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ukraine_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_and_third_review_under_the_Extended_Arrangement_Requests_for_a_Waiver_of_Non_175页_3mb

Ukraine: IMF Article IV Consultation and Third Review Summary

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 17/83 outlines the results of the 2016 Article IV Consultation and the third review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine. The report highlights both the progress made and the ongoing challenges the country faces. It also includes requests for waivers and rephasing of certain performance criteria due to recent developments, such as the blockade in the eastern part of the country and the nationalization of the largest bank.

Key Economic Developments

• Economic Recovery: After a severe crisis in 2014–15, Ukraine's economy has shown signs of recovery, with real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2016.
• Inflation Control: Inflation has fallen from a peak of 61% in April 2015 to 12.4% by end-2016, well within the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) target range.
• Current Account and Reserves: The current account deficit decreased from over 9% of GDP in 2013 to 3.6% in 2016, and international reserves doubled to US$15 billion.
• Fiscal Deficit: The overall fiscal deficit, including energy sector quasi-fiscal losses, declined from 10% of GDP in 2014 to 2.3% in 2016, supported by strong spending control and energy tariff adjustments.

Structural Reforms and Challenges

• Mixed Progress: While there have been notable achievements in the energy and financial sectors, progress in privatizing state-owned enterprises, land and pension reforms, and fighting corruption has been limited.
• Ongoing Challenges: Public debt is projected to rise to nearly 90% of GDP in 2017, remaining high for an emerging market. The financial system is heavily dollarized, and non-performing loans have reached record levels.
• Public Sector Inefficiency: The public sector is large and inefficient, and there are strong pressures to increase public spending.

Executive Board Assessment

• Positive Remarks: The Executive Board commended the authorities' decisive policy actions that led to economic recovery, reduced inflation, and increased reserves.
• Need for Accelerated Reforms: Directors emphasized the need to accelerate structural reforms to improve the business environment, attract investment, and increase productivity and labor market participation.
• Pension Reform: A comprehensive pension reform, including raising the retirement age, was urged to address deficits and improve sustainability.
• Monetary Policy: The NBU's independence and clear policy mandate were highlighted as critical to inflation control and reserve rebuilding. Directors recommended maintaining tight monetary policies and focusing on inflation containment.
• Financial Stability: The nationalization of the largest bank was seen as an important step for financial stability, but repayment of loans and bank recapitalization were stressed to minimize taxpayer costs.

Impact of Recent Events

• Blockade in Eastern Ukraine: The blockade of the non-government-controlled area (NGCA) has had a significant but manageable impact on economic activity. It is expected to lower growth to 2% in 2017 from 2.9% previously.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.75% of GDP in 2017, due to lower exports and higher import requirements.
• Financial System: The blockade and associated tensions have affected parts of the financial system, including Russian state-owned banks. The authorities have taken steps to safeguard stability, such as restricting transactions and allowing exchange rate flexibility.

Program Projections

• Growth Outlook: Growth is expected to reach 3% in 2018 and 3.5–4% over the medium term, assuming accelerated structural reforms.
• Inflation: Inflation is projected to decline gradually to 5% by the medium term.
• Public Debt: Public debt is expected to drop below 70% of GDP by 2021, contingent on successful debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation, and economic growth.
• Reserves: Reserve adequacy, as measured by the IMF composite index, is expected to be achieved by end-2018.

Additional Information

• IMF Support: The third review of the EFF was completed, enabling a disbursement of US$1.00 billion.
• Waivers Requested: The authorities requested waivers for non-observance of performance criteria due to the blockade's impact and the nationalization of the largest bank.
• Legal Developments: A US$3 billion Eurobond dispute with Russia was highlighted, with the UK High Court granting a stay on execution and allowing an appeal.

Summary Table of Key Indicators (2016–2021)